IEA Says Iran War Damage Will Tighten Global Gas Markets Through 2027

The International Energy Agency said this week that damage from the Iran war will keep global natural gas markets tight through 2027, raising the risk of higher prices and supply shortages in Europe and Asia.

The IEA warned the damage to production sites, export terminals and pipelines could produce a large LNG shortfall and sustained price pressure. Analysts put the potential gap at about 120 billion cubic meters over the next two years. White House briefings and major oil executives have raised alarms about soaring energy costs and inflation. Financial firms warn that depleted oil inventories and refinery cuts could force rationing that deepens the gas crunch.

The episode traces back to escalating strikes and counterstrikes that began in June 2025 when Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military targets in what became a 12-day war. Violence flared again on February 28, 2026, with US and Israeli strikes inside Iran and the killing of the country's supreme leader, prompting large Iranian counterstrikes. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on March 4, 2026, and struck shipping and facilities, including missile damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan export hub that reduced LNG flows.

Planned new LNG export projects will add roughly 345 billion cubic meters per year between 2025 and 2030, but building and commissioning schedules mean those volumes cannot immediately replace lost capacity. Qatar exported about 81 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, near 20 percent of global exports, so damage there and slow restarts of damaged wells and terminals leave markets vulnerable through 2027.