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Trump Gas Price Pledge Clashes With Iran War Market Forecasts From His Own Advisers
President Trump has promised gas prices will plunge after the Iran war ends, but his own advisers and energy officials warn relief will likely be slower and smaller.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNN gas may not fall below $3 per gallon until later this year or even 2027, a forecast President Trump publicly rejected. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a narrower window, saying Americans could see "gas with a three in front of it" between June 20 and September 20. U.S. retail gasoline prices are roughly 21% higher than a month ago, with AAA and other trackers putting the national average around $4 and West Coast prices above $5. Farmers and shippers are also feeling the squeeze; U.S. diesel averages about $5.61 per gallon, and businesses such as the U.S. Postal Service and UPS have introduced price hikes or fuel surcharges.
The Iran war has also sent jet fuel and crude sharply higher, worsening consumer pain and undercutting hopes for a quick rebound. International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol warned Europe may have "maybe six weeks" of jet fuel left, and analysts say the Strait of Hormuz supplies about 40% of Europe's jet fuel imports with none transiting since the conflict began. Jet fuel climbed from roughly $99 per barrel at the end of February to about $209 in early April, prompting airlines to cut routes, raise fees, and embed higher fuel costs into fares; carriers including Delta, Air Canada, KLM and Lufthansa have already pared schedules. Markets swung with every diplomatic twist: Brent fell more than 9% on brief reopening hopes and then jumped when Tehran reversed course, illustrating how volatile energy markets remain.
Mainstream coverage has shifted from early optimism about quick price relief to a more skeptical, cautionary tone as officials and markets pushed back on President Trump's timeline. Initial reports conveyed his outlook that prices would "come roaring down" once the war ended, but later stories from outlets including MS NOW and NPR emphasized public contradictions by top aides and energy officials and highlighted structural problems that could slow normalization. Social media and industry voices reinforced that caution; the International Air Transport Association warned jet fuel supplies and prices could take months to normalize, while macro strategists and commentators warned that backlogs and infrastructure strains could prolong global disruption even if Hormuz reopens.
Global Energy and Oil Markets
Iran War and Strait of Hormuz
Iran War and Global Energy
Airlines and Travel Costs
Global Energy Markets
This story is compiled from 17 sources using AI-assisted curation and analysis. Original reporting is attributed below. Learn about our methodology.
📌 Key Facts
- The Iran war and related disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have sharply reduced oil and jet-fuel flows: Iran briefly declared the strait 'completely open' during a 10-day ceasefire but later reversed that pledge, leaving future shipping uncertain and reviving fears of prolonged supply disruption.
- The IEA warns Europe may have only 'maybe six weeks' of jet-fuel coverage if Hormuz disruptions continue; Argus Media says about 40% of Europe’s jet-fuel imports transit the strait and none has passed since the war began, while some European countries are down to under 20 days of coverage—levels that analysts say could trigger physical shortages and flight cancellations.
- Jet fuel prices and airline costs have surged: jet fuel has roughly doubled since the war began, climbing from about $99 per barrel at the end of February to as high as $209 per barrel in early April, and fuel now represents roughly 25%–30% of airline operating costs.
- Airlines are reacting by cutting routes, suspending service and raising fares/fees—examples include Delta trimming specific summer routes, Air Canada suspending Toronto/Montreal–JFK service June–Oct, KLM and Lufthansa scaling back schedules, and other carriers (United, Air France‑KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines, Cathay Pacific) also reducing capacity.
- Global oil markets have been volatile around diplomatic signals: prices fell sharply on hopes of a deal (Brent down ~9% in one session) and rebounded when reopening hopes were dashed; benchmarks have moved in the mid‑$80s–$100s per barrel range as incidents (including a U.S. seizure of an Iranian ship) and Iran’s Hormuz statements shift sentiment.
- U.S. pump prices have risen by roughly $1 per gallon since before the war: national regular gasoline averages about $4.05 (up from roughly $3.16–$2.98 last year), West Coast averages exceed $5, and diesel averages about $5.61—raising costs for farmers, shippers and food banks and prompting USPS and UPS to impose higher shipping prices/fuel surcharges.
- Top U.S. officials and analysts disagree on how quickly prices will fall if the war ends: President Trump says gas will 'come roaring down' once the war ends, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright says prices may not fall below $3 per gallon until later this year or even 2027, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects 'gas with a three in front of it' only between June 20 and Sept 20, and economists generally forecast gradual declines rather than an immediate plunge.
- Given the supply risks, high costs and market volatility, analysts advise travelers and businesses to expect continued disruption this summer—recommendations include booking earlier, avoiding the most restrictive fares, seeking flexibility/refunds, and preparing for possible diversions, added stops or cancelled flights.
📰 Source Timeline (17)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
April 21, 2026
12:24 PM
As the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline looms, here are the main sticking points
New information:
- Adds direct NPR linkage between Iran's control of Hormuz and U.S. gasoline prices exceeding $4 per gallon.
- Reinforces that a core U.S. negotiating demand is fully restored commercial shipping through Hormuz, a precondition for easing the 'war premium' on fuel discussed in the gas-price story.
9:00 AM
Trump believes gas prices will plummet once war with Iran ends. His aides and experts disagree.
New information:
- Trump repeatedly claims gas prices will 'come roaring down' once the Iran war ends and publicly rejects his own energy secretary's forecast.
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright tells CNN gas may not fall below $3 until later this year or even 2027, directly contradicting Trump.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts 'gas with a three in front of it' between June 20 and September 20, implying limited near-term relief.
- Analysts quoted say prices typically fall slowly after shocks, and some foresee only gradual declines into fall even if the war ends soon.
April 20, 2026
11:02 AM
Peace talks in doubt as U.S. seizes Iranian ship
New information:
- Supplies an updated oil benchmark figure of $95.62 a barrel after the Touska seizure, compared with earlier figures from prior phases of the conflict.
- Connects this specific naval incident and the resulting diplomatic uncertainty to the ongoing 'war premium' on fuel already squeezing farmers and airlines.
8:56 AM
Oil prices jump and stocks are mixed as the US-Iran standoff keeps the Strait of Hormuz in limbo
New information:
- Provides updated spot prices showing U.S. benchmark crude at $87.88 and Brent at $95.62 after a single-session rise of 5.3%.
- Details that oil prices had recently dropped back to early-war levels before Iran's brief reopening claim, then rebounded sharply when the strait was closed again.
- Connects market optimism and record S&P 500 highs to hopes for a durable reopening of Hormuz that have now been shaken by Iran's reversal.
6:37 AM
Dollar Rises Along With Oil Prices on Fresh Iran War Concerns
New information:
- Provides a fresh snapshot of market sentiment: dollar index at 98.395 and oil ticking higher specifically on renewed fears that Hormuz will remain closed.
- Clarifies that Iran's weekend statement reversing a reopening pledge has revived concerns about prolonged supply disruptions layered on top of the existing Iran war shock.
1:05 AM
Farmers facing harsh fuel prices as Iran war disrupts oil shipments
New information:
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that gas prices pumped up by the Iran war may not drop below $3 per gallon until next year.
- CBS reports that nearly two months into the Iran war, U.S. regular gasoline averages $4.05 per gallon.
- CBS reports that U.S. diesel prices now average $5.61 per gallon, a key cost input for farmers.
- CBS correspondent Lana Zak interviewed Iowa farmers about how they are coping with sharply higher fuel bills tied to war-related oil disruptions.
April 19, 2026
11:07 PM
Oil prices spike again following latest standoff in the Strait of Hormuz
New information:
- Provides updated crude benchmarks after fresh Hormuz tensions: U.S. crude at $87.88 and Brent at $96.25 versus earlier readings above $100.
- Adds that U.S. gas now averages about $4.05 per gallon, compared with $2.98 before the war, indicating a roughly $1-a-gallon war premium.
- Quotes Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicting gas may not drop below $3 until next year, but saying prices have likely already peaked.
7:05 PM
Trump’s approval rating hits new low amid war and high gas prices
New information:
- NBC News Decision Desk Poll finds Trump job approval at 37% and disapproval at 63%, the lowest of his current term.
- Roughly two-thirds of Americans in the poll say the country is on the wrong track, the most pessimistic reading since Trump returned to office.
- Republican approval of Trump slips to 83%, down 4 points since late January–early February, and strong GOP approval falls 6 points to 52%.
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright says on CNN that national average gas prices are unlikely to fall below $3 per gallon until later this year or 2027, and that the war must end for prices to drop.
- AAA data cited in the piece put the current national average gas price just above $4 per gallon, up from $3.16 at the same time last year, with West Coast prices over $5.
April 18, 2026
11:16 PM
How consumers can navigate the cost of available flights impacted by the Iran war
New information:
- Air Canada will suspend service to New York's JFK airport from June 1 to October 25 specifically to lower fuel costs.
- PBS/Associated Press quantify that global jet fuel prices climbed from about $99 per barrel at the end of February to as high as $209 per barrel in early April.
- Named list of airlines beyond earlier coverage that have already reduced routes or increased fares, including United, Delta, Air France-KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines and Cathay Pacific.
- New expert guidance from analysts Shye Gilad and Henry Harteveldt advising travelers to book sooner, avoid Basic Economy, and consider refundable or more flexible fares given war-driven volatility.
- Explicit linkage between Iran’s brief Hormuz reopening, subsequent reclosure, the continued U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and the resulting uncertainty over future oil and jet fuel flows.
2:53 AM
U.S. and Iran Signal Easing of Tensions
New information:
- Reports a specific market session in which Brent crude fell 9.1% to $90.38 a barrel and the main U.S. crude benchmark fell 11% to $83.85.
- Links those price moves directly to an Iranian official declaring the Strait of Hormuz 'completely open' and Trump's decision to keep a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
- Notes that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended that trading day at record highs on perceived easing of U.S.-Iran tensions.
12:02 AM
Summer travel overseas could hit turbulence amid soaring jet fuel prices
New information:
- CBS packages the IEA's 'maybe six weeks' jet fuel coverage specifically around summer overseas travel plans for U.S. passengers.
- The segment emphasizes the risk of turbulence in transatlantic and other overseas travel due to Europe-centered jet fuel shortages tied to the Iran conflict.
- It reinforces that the underlying driver is supply chain disruption from the Iran war, linking fuel worries directly to the peak vacation season.
April 17, 2026
9:36 PM
Airlines cut routes in response to rising jet fuel costs amid Iran war
New information:
- Delta Air Lines is cutting four specific routes this summer (JFK-Memphis, JFK-St. Louis, Detroit-Reykjavik, Boston-Nassau) across defined date ranges, citing operating costs among factors.
- Air Canada is suspending Toronto and Montreal routes to New York JFK from June 1 through October 25 explicitly because jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict.
- KLM Royal Dutch Airlines is adjusting its schedule and dropping routes it calls no longer financially viable, and Lufthansa is shutting down a regional airline and grounding planes over higher kerosene prices.
- Industry analyst Henry Harteveldt told CBS he has never seen disruptions "on such a large scale" and warned U.S. travelers could face diversions or added stops on Europe flights due to fuel shortages.
- The piece confirms that jet fuel prices have doubled since the Iran war began on February 28 and reiterates that fuel is about 25%-30% of airline operating costs.
5:41 PM
Inflation is likely here to stay, even if gas prices fall
New information:
- Iran's foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz is 'completely open' during a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire through at least April 26.
- U.S. retail gasoline prices are running roughly 21% higher than a month ago, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
- Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi describes three 'waves' of this oil shock: direct fuel prices, pass-through into other goods and services, and potential wage pressures that could trigger a recession.
- U.S. Postal Service plans an 8% shipping price increase and UPS has imposed a fuel surcharge, both attributed to higher energy costs.
- Food banks such as Food for Others in Fairfax, Virginia report rising demand as higher food and transport costs hit low-income families.
- A U.N. humanitarian office report notes Thailand and the Philippines are curbing fuel use and India is diverting natural gas from industry to households, affecting production of goods exported to the U.S.
2:36 PM
The Iran war has caused the cost of jet fuel to surge. Here's how travelers are impacted.
New information:
- CBS segment reiterates that since the Iran war began, jet fuel costs have doubled due to shortages.
- It reports that airlines around the world are canceling flights and increasing fares and fees in response to the spike.
- It echoes IEA Director Fatih Birol's warning that Europe has maybe six weeks of jet fuel left if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue, but adds no new figures or qualifiers beyond what is already captured.
1:35 PM
Trump and Iran's foreign minister declare Strait of Hormuz is fully open
New information:
- Confirms that Iran has now declared the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" to commercial vessels in line with the Lebanon ceasefire.
- Notes Trump amplified the message, saying the strait "is fully open and ready for full passage."
- Clarifies that this opening is time-limited to the remaining period of the 10-day ceasefire, leaving open what happens afterward.
- Reports that oil prices have fallen on hopes of a broader deal to end the war, while Fatih Birol warns energy shocks could worsen if Hormuz fails to reopen fully and durably.
12:01 AM
What lagging jet fuel supplies could mean for airlines and travelers
New information:
- Exclusive AP interview quotes IEA Director Fatih Birol saying Europe has 'maybe six weeks' of jet fuel left and calling this the global economy's 'largest energy crisis.'
- Argus Media’s Amaar Khan specifies that the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports and that no jet fuel has transited the strait since the war began.
- The article quantifies that jet fuel is airlines’ biggest cost at about 30% of expenses and says prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war started.
- It reports that some airlines have already raised baggage and other ancillary fees, embedded higher fuel costs into fares, and begun cutting flights in response.
- The IEA report cited notes some European countries are down to under 20 days of jet fuel coverage, and warns that dropping below 23 days could trigger physical shortages at some airports and flight cancellations.
April 16, 2026