Iran War, Tariffs and Costs Squeeze Midwest Soybean Farmers

Midwest soybean farmers — including producers in Nebraska, Iowa and North Dakota — are entering 2026 under intensifying financial strain as a mix of tariffs, fallout from the Iran war and rising input and land costs squeeze margins. Farmers report sharply higher prices for fertilizer, seed, chemicals, parts and equipment while crop prices remain depressed; Nebraska Soybean Association chair Doug Bartek says markups have been “drastic” and that three-quarters of his 2,000 acres are rented with rents rising. North Dakota Soybean Growers president Justin Sherlock warns of “another year of negative returns” for many producers in 2026, reflecting a cash squeeze that comes as global market conditions limit farmers’ ability to pass costs on.

The pressure reflects both recent shocks and longer-term trends. U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed after the 2018 trade war — from about 32.9 million tons in 2017 to 16.6 million tons in 2018 — producing estimated annualized losses of roughly $9.4 billion during that period, while Brazil’s expansion of acreage, infrastructure and lower costs has since overtaken the U.S. and helped create a persistent global supply glut that keeps prices low. Input-cost shocks compound the problem: fertilizer prices jumped 20–40% after the 2022 Ukraine conflict and analysts warn similar spikes are possible from 2026 Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks, through which roughly a third of global fertilizer flows. The financial stress shows up in the numbers — U.S. farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025 to 315 filings and farm debt is expected to climb — and social media has reflected the fallout, with posts highlighting political blowback among working-class farmers, fears that tariffs and shipping disruptions are pushing producers toward bankruptcy, and concerns that higher fertilizer and shipping costs will raise grocery prices for consumers.

Coverage of the story has shifted from an earlier focus on the immediate trade-war hit to a more layered narrative that joins on-the-ground farmer testimony and state association warnings with analysis of structural market shifts and geopolitically driven input shortages. Early reporting emphasized export losses and tariff impacts after 2018; newer pieces, notably the expanded reporting in PBS, added first‑hand accounts of rising rents and input markups and deeper economic context from economists about Brazil’s rise and a persistent supply glut, reframing the challenge as the intersection of long-term global competition, policy-driven trade disruptions and fresh war-related cost shocks that together leave Midwest soybean farmers particularly exposed.