NOAA: March 2026 Was Most Abnormally Hot Month on Record in Lower 48
New federal data show March 2026 delivered the most abnormally hot month ever recorded for the contiguous United States in 132 years of records, with an average temperature of 50.85°F—9.35°F above the 20th‑century March norm and surpassing the old anomaly record set in March 2012. NOAA reports that April 2025 through March 2026 was also the warmest 12‑month period on record for the Lower 48, and that this January–March stretch was the driest such period ever observed nationally, a combination meteorologists warn is dangerous for water supplies, agriculture and river navigation. Climate Central and other researchers say more than one‑third of the country experienced late‑March heat that would have been virtually impossible without human‑driven climate change, with roughly 19,800 daily heat records and over 2,000 monthly records broken. Scientists are now warning that a projected “super” El Niño, with Pacific sea‑surface temperatures potentially exceeding 2°C above normal, could push global heat to new records in late 2026 and 2027. The string of shattered records is fueling fresh concern among U.S. climate and weather experts that the country is entering a more extreme heat regime with mounting economic and public‑health consequences.
📌 Key Facts
- NOAA says March 2026’s U.S. average temperature was 50.85°F, 9.35°F above the 20th‑century March average, the highest anomaly ever recorded for any month in the Lower 48.
- April 2025 through March 2026 was the warmest 12‑month period on record for the contiguous United States.
- Meteorologist Guy Walton estimates more than 19,800 daily heat records and over 2,000 monthly heat records were set nationwide in March.
- NOAA and Europe’s Copernicus service project a potentially 'super' El Niño later in 2026, with Pacific temperatures forecast to rise well above 2°C over normal, likely boosting global temperatures to new records.
📊 Relevant Data
In projections for 2022, the excess heat-related mortality rate per 100,000 population was 26.6 for non-Hispanic Black individuals, compared to 15.4 for non-Hispanic White individuals, nearly twice as high.
Racial disparities in deaths related to extreme temperatures in the United States — One Earth (Cell Press)
From 2019 to 2023, heat-related mortality rates per 100,000 population increased at an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 28.7% among Hispanic populations in the United States, higher than the 15.2% AAPC for non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native populations.
Trends in Rates of Heat-Related Deaths Across Population Subgroups in the United States, 2000-2023 — PubMed Central (PMC)
In the US, the risk of heat-related death is increased for Hispanic workers versus non-Hispanic workers when working in agriculture, with an odds ratio of 3.4 (95% CI 2.0-5.8).
Occupational Heat Stress Among Migrant and Ethnic Minority Workers: A Scoping Review — PubMed Central (PMC)
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