NOAA: March 2026 Was Most Abnormally Hot Month on Record for Lower 48 as Forecasters Warn of Potential ‘Super’ El Niño
Federal data show March 2026 was the most abnormally hot month on record for the Lower 48, with an average temperature of 50.85°F—9.35°F above the 20th‑century March normal—and average daytime highs 11.4°F above normal (nearly 1°F warmer than a typical April); April 2025–March 2026 was the warmest 12‑month period on record and January–March 2026 was the driest on record for the contiguous U.S. Climate Central said late‑March heat over about one‑third of the country would have been "virtually impossible" without human‑caused warming, and NOAA and Europe’s Copernicus service warn a likely "super" El Niño is expected to form in coming months and could push global temperatures beyond 2024’s record.
📌 Key Facts
- NOAA confirmed March 2026 average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 50.85°F — 9.35°F above the 20th‑century March normal — and that this anomaly exceeds any previous month on record for the Lower 48.
- The average maximum (daytime high) for March 2026 was 11.4°F above the 20th‑century average and was nearly 1°F warmer than a typical April daytime high.
- April 2025 through March 2026 was the warmest 12‑month period on record for the contiguous United States.
- January–March 2026 was the driest January–March on record for the Lower 48, combining record heat with record dryness.
- Climate Central’s attribution analysis found the late‑March heat across roughly one‑third of the U.S. would have been “virtually impossible” without human‑caused climate change.
- NOAA and Europe’s Copernicus service forecast a likely “super” El Niño to form in the coming months and intensify into winter, which is expected to push global temperatures beyond the 2024 record.
📊 Relevant Data
Non-Hispanic Black adults are projected to experience a 278.2% increase in extreme temperature-related deaths by mid-century (2036-2065) under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), compared to a 70.8% increase for non-Hispanic White adults.
Projections of Extreme Temperature–Related Deaths in the US, 2036-2065 — JAMA Network Open
Hispanic adults are projected to experience a 537.5% increase in extreme temperature-related deaths by mid-century (2036-2065) under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), compared to a 70.8% increase for non-Hispanic White adults.
Projections of Extreme Temperature–Related Deaths in the US, 2036-2065 — JAMA Network Open
American Indian persons are 49.1% more likely to reside in neighborhoods with the top 10% expected annual economic losses from heatwaves compared to the overall population, based on data from 1980-2020.
Racial/ethnic disparities in the distribution of heatwave risk in the contiguous United States — Scientific Reports
Black-led households are more likely to lack air conditioning equipment (15%) compared to White-led households (10%), based on 2023 data.
Disparities in Access to Air Conditioning And Implications for Heat-Related Health Risks — KFF
Hispanic persons are 16.5% more likely to reside in neighborhoods with the top 10% expected annual economic losses from heatwaves compared to the overall population, based on data from 1980-2020.
Racial/ethnic disparities in the distribution of heatwave risk in the contiguous United States — Scientific Reports
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Confirms March 2026 average U.S. temperature was 50.85°F, 9.35°F above the 20th‑century March normal, and that this anomaly now exceeds any previous month on record, not just any March.
- Details that the average maximum (daytime high) temperature for March 2026 was 11.4°F above the 20th‑century average and was nearly 1°F warmer than the typical April daytime high.
- Notes that April 2025 through March 2026 was the warmest 12‑month period on record for the contiguous United States.
- Reports that the January–March 2026 period was the driest on record for the Lower 48, combining record heat with record dryness.
- Adds expert attribution from Climate Central that late‑March heat over about one‑third of the U.S. would have been "virtually impossible" without human‑caused climate change.
- Introduces new forward‑looking forecasts from NOAA and Europe’s Copernicus service that a "super" El Niño is expected to form in the next few months and intensify into winter, likely pushing global temperatures beyond the 2024 record.