Minnesota bill would ban online prediction markets
Minnesota lawmakers are weighing a bill that would ban online prediction-market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from operating in the state, a move that would shut off Twin Cities residents from legally wagering on real‑world events ranging from sports to war. The measure cleared two Senate committees on Thursday, but its ultimate fate in the full House and Senate remains uncertain despite some bipartisan support, including from legislators who otherwise favor legalizing sports betting. Lead sponsor Sen. John Marty (DFL–Roseville) argues prediction markets invite "horrendous" abuses and open the door to insider trading, while Rep. Emma Greenman (DFL–Minneapolis) says their rapid growth over the last year demands a legislative response. The bill would treat these platforms more like prohibited gambling than financial instruments, drawing a line around what kinds of event‑based markets are allowed in Minnesota. For the Twin Cities’ growing tech and fintech scene — and anyone here using these apps — this fight will determine whether the state slams the door on a controversial but expanding corner of online finance and betting.
📌 Key Facts
- A Minnesota bill to ban prediction markets has been heard in two Senate committees and advanced out of them.
- In its current form, the bill would prohibit platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket from operating in Minnesota.
- The proposal has some bipartisan backing, including from lawmakers who support sports betting, but passage in the full House and Senate is still uncertain.
📊 Relevant Data
Prediction markets have demonstrated superior accuracy compared to traditional polling in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, particularly in battleground states.
Global prediction market transaction volume reached $63.5 billion in 2025, marking a 400% increase from the previous year.
Prediction Markets Could Top $1T in Annual Volume Says New Report — DeFi Rate
Polymarket tightened its rules on insider trading following scrutiny over bets on events like potential U.S. military actions in Iran and political developments in Venezuela.
Polymarket buckles down on insider trading after scrutiny over Iran war, Venezuela bets — CBS News
The U.S. federal government sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois in 2026 for attempting to regulate or ban prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Federal government sues three states for trying to regulate prediction markets — PBS NewsHour
66% of prediction market users in the U.S. are under 50 years old, with higher adoption rates among non-White voters (population percentage of non-White voters is approximately 40% in the U.S.) and men (46% adoption among men vs. lower among women).
36% of U.S. Voters Use Prediction Markets, Paradigm Finds — Phemex
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