Data Show Democrats Strongly Overperforming Since Trump’s Return
NPR reports that since President Trump returned to office, Democrats have consistently outperformed their 2024 presidential baseline in special and off-year elections across the country, with average gains of about 11 percentage points in 2026 special elections and roughly 13 points since early 2025. The trend was on display April 8, 2026, when liberal candidate Chris Taylor won a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat 60%–40% over conservative Maria Lazar, expanding liberals’ majority to 5–2 in a state Trump carried by less than a point, and in deep-red Georgia’s 14th District, where Republican Clay Fuller still won a special-election runoff but Democrat Shawn Harris cut the GOP margin to 56%–44% in a Trump +~40 seat. NPR pairs these results with turnout data showing elevated Democratic participation in 2026 primaries — including a record 2.3 million votes in the Texas Democratic primary, higher Democratic than Republican statewide turnout in North Carolina, and nearly an 80% jump in Mississippi Democratic primary turnout compared with 2018. Analysts tie this performance to Trump’s sub-40% job approval amid an unpopular Iran war, high gas prices and economic pessimism, plus polling that shows voters preferring Democratic control of Congress and Democratic voters more eager to vote, even as both parties remain unpopular. The pattern is feeding online speculation that 2026 could bring a typical midterm backlash against the party in power, with Democrats’ current edge driven largely by more reliable turnout in lower-profile contests rather than any sudden surge in affection for Democratic leaders.
📌 Key Facts
- In the April 8, 2026 Wisconsin Supreme Court race, liberal Chris Taylor defeated conservative Maria Lazar 60%–40%, giving liberals a 5–2 majority on the court in a state Trump narrowly won in 2024.
- In Georgia’s 14th Congressional District special-election runoff, Republican Clay Fuller won with 56% to Democrat Shawn Harris’s 44%, a swing of nearly 20 points toward Democrats from Trump’s ~40-point 2024 margin and Harris’s sub-36% showing against Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- Election-analysis outlet The Downballot calculates that Democrats have improved on their 2024 presidential margins by an average of about 11 points in 2026 special elections and about 13 points since early 2025, alongside record or elevated Democratic primary turnout in Texas, North Carolina and Mississippi.
- Trump’s average job approval stands around 39% amid an unpopular Iran war, rising gas prices and negative economic sentiment, while polls show more voters preferring Democrats to control Congress and Democrats reporting higher enthusiasm to vote.
📊 Relevant Data
From 2020 to 2025, Wisconsin's Dane County, a liberal stronghold, grew by 2.5% (about 13,000 people), largely due to international migration, while conservative areas experienced outward migration, potentially contributing to the state becoming more Democratic-leaning.
Demographics is Wisconsin’s Destiny — MacIver Institute
In Wisconsin's 2020 electorate, Black voters comprised about 5% and supported Democrats at a 90% rate, with increased turnout contributing to Democratic gains, while the overall electorate remained predominantly White with suburban shifts favoring Democrats.
What Happened in Wisconsin — Catalist
As of early 2026, President Trump's approval rating stands at 41% among White voters, 10% among Black voters, and 21% among Hispanic voters, amid the Iran war and economic issues.
Trump approval rating hits new low as Iran war squeezes economy — The Hill
In a 2026 Texas special election, Hispanic voters showed a 26% increase in Democratic vote share compared to 2024 presidential margins, indicating a shift back toward Democrats.
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