Cook Political Report Moves Five 2026 House Races Toward Democrats, One Toward GOP
The Cook Political Report has updated its 2026 U.S. House race ratings, shifting five districts toward Democrats and one toward Republicans as both parties battle for control of the chamber. In Ohio, Rep. Greg Landsman’s 1st District moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic despite a 2024 Trump +2.5 redraw, while Rep. Emilia Sykes’ 13th District went from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic after redistricting pushed it about three points left. In New Jersey, Rep. Nellie Pou’s 9th District rating improved from Lean to Likely Democratic after Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the seat in the 2025 gubernatorial race by nearly 20 points in a district Trump carried in 2024, while Florida’s 27th, held by GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, was downgraded from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Pennsylvania’s 8th District, represented by Republican Rob Bresnahan and dogged by controversy over his stock trades, shifted from Lean Republican to Toss-Up; his campaign responded by dismissing Cook as ‘Washington, D.C. political race handicappers’ and insisting local union backing and fundraising show a stronger position than the ratings suggest. The changes underscore how redistricting deals, recent state-level results, and candidate-specific vulnerabilities are reshaping the 2026 House battlefield and are already being dissected online by election analysts tracking whether Democrats can realistically claw back a majority.
📌 Key Facts
- Cook Political Report shifted five House districts toward Democrats and one toward Republicans in its latest 2026 ratings.
- Ohio’s 1st District (Rep. Greg Landsman) moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic; Ohio’s 13th (Rep. Emilia Sykes) moved from Lean to Likely Democratic after a leftward redistricting shift.
- New Jersey’s 9th (Rep. Nellie Pou) moved from Lean to Likely Democratic, while Florida’s 27th (Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar) went from Solid to Likely Republican.
- Pennsylvania’s 8th (Rep. Rob Bresnahan) shifted from Lean Republican to Toss-Up amid ongoing scrutiny of his stock trades, which Democrats are using as a central line of attack.
- Bresnahan’s campaign publicly rejected Cook’s downgrade, touting union support and fundraising and attacking Democratic challenger Mayor Paige Cognetti as ‘extreme’ on immigration and policing.
📊 Relevant Data
In Ohio's 1st Congressional District, the population is approximately 70.4% White, 18.5% Black, 4.1% Hispanic, and 3.6% Asian, with recent redistricting changes potentially diluting Black voting power by cracking communities into multiple districts.
Congressional District 1, OH - Profile data — Census Reporter
Ohio's 13th Congressional District has a population that is 78.3% White, 12.5% Black, 3.2% Hispanic, and 2.9% Asian, and the 2025 redistricting shifted it leftward by incorporating more urban areas with higher minority populations.
Congressional District 13, OH - Profile data — Census Reporter
New Jersey's 9th Congressional District is 42.8% Hispanic, 32.7% White, 13.5% Asian, and 7.6% Black, contributing to its strong Democratic performance in recent elections.
Congressional District 9, NJ - Profile data — Census Reporter
Florida's 27th Congressional District has a 70.4% Hispanic population, 20.3% White, 5.7% Black, and this demographic has shown increasing support for Republicans, with Trump winning 57% of Hispanic votes in Florida in 2024.
Congressional District 27, FL - Profile data — Census Reporter
Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District is 77.5% White, 9.3% Hispanic, 5.3% Asian, and 4.9% Black, with about 7.9% foreign-born residents statewide, influencing debates on immigration policies in the race.
Congressional District 8, PA - Profile data — Census Reporter
In the 2024 election, White voters supported Trump by 57% to 42% for Harris, while Black voters supported Harris by 86% to 13% for Trump, and Hispanic voters were nearly even at 43% Harris and 55% Trump nationally.
How Groups Voted in 2024 — Roper Center
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