Photo: USDAgov | Public domain | Wikimedia Commons
Iran War Fertilizer Disruptions Drive Up U.S. Farmers’ Costs and Threaten Crop Yields
The war in Iran and Tehran’s restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz have choked off roughly 30–40% of global nitrogen fertilizer trade—constraining urea (up about 50%) and ammonia (up about 20%) supplies as well as phosphate and sulfur flows—and, despite Iran telling the UN it will facilitate humanitarian and agricultural shipments, producers are demanding security guarantees before normal cargos resume. Those disruptions, together with sharply higher diesel and energy costs, have driven U.S. farmers’ input expenses sharply higher (some report cost increases around 25%), left some unable to obtain key fertilizers, raised farm bankruptcy risks, threatened lower crop yields and higher food prices, and prompted U.S. policy moves and diplomatic efforts to shore up supplies.
📌 Key Facts
- The war in Iran and Tehran’s restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz have sharply disrupted fertilizer flows: roughly 30–40% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports transit the Hormuz chokepoint and have been curtailed, with about 30% of global urea trade restricted.
- Fertilizer and energy prices have spiked since the war began: urea prices are up about 50%, ammonia about 20%, and diesel prices (raising farm operating costs) are up roughly 43.5%.
- Some U.S. farmers already face severe shortages — reporters say key fertilizers are unavailable “at any price” for some — and individual farmers report input costs up about 25% year‑over‑year; U.S. farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025 versus 2024, indicating farmers were vulnerable before the shock.
- Concentrated production and trade amplify the crisis: Saudi Arabia produces about one‑fifth of the world’s phosphate, Gulf producers supply over 40% of the sulfur used in fertilizer production, and significant shares of global fertilizer move through the Gulf, leaving major importers exposed.
- Particularly vulnerable countries include Brazil (which relies on foreign suppliers for roughly 85% of its fertilizer), Ethiopia (which sources over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer via the Gulf through Djibouti), and Egypt (whose fertilizer output is constrained when gas supplies falter).
- Analysts and relief officials warn the mechanism for broader food impacts is clear: higher fertilizer and energy costs will lead farmers to cut usage, producing lower yields or crop failures in the worst case and higher global and U.S. food prices in the best case.
- Diplomatic and policy developments are unfolding: Iran told the U.N. it will “facilitate and expedite” humanitarian and agricultural shipments through Hormuz and the U.N. set up a task force, but producers say they will need security guarantees and implementation details remain unclear.
- U.S. political moves tied to farmer support: the U.S. administration announced easing restrictions on Belarus‑linked financial and potash companies (part of a package tied to diplomatic engagement with Belarus) and is framing that change alongside a promised set of policies to support American farmers hurt by the Iran war.
- Regional diplomacy could change the timeline for recovery: a planned meeting of Saudi, Turkish and Egyptian diplomats in Pakistan to discuss ending the fighting may influence how quickly fertilizer supplies and market stability can be restored.
📰 Source Timeline (7)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
March 29, 2026
5:54 AM
Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on
New information:
- Up to 40% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports usually transit the Strait of Hormuz, sharpening the picture of how choke point closure feeds the fertilizer crunch previously reported.
- Urea prices are up about 50% and ammonia about 20% since the war began, figures consistent with but independently reaffirmed in this piece with broader global framing.
- The article highlights Brazil’s particular vulnerability as a major importer that relies on foreign suppliers for roughly 85% of its fertilizer, and notes Egypt’s fertilizer output is constrained when gas supplies falter.
- The story explicitly links higher fertilizer prices to anticipated lower yields as farmers cut back usage, sketching a mechanism for future global food price rises that would feed into U.S. food inflation.
5:54 AM
The Latest: Regional powers to meet in Pakistan to discuss how to end Mideast fighting
New information:
- The article notes that the Iran war has threatened global supplies of oil and natural gas and has sparked fertilizer shortages, directly linking the conflict to agriculture inputs.
- It reports a new planned meeting in Pakistan among Saudi, Turkish and Egyptian diplomats to discuss ending the fighting, which could affect the timeline of fertilizer supply recovery.
- It confirms that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has shaken markets and prices broadly.
12:44 AM
The ripple effect of the Iran war on struggling U.S. farmers
New information:
- Oxford Economics data cited showing ammonia prices up roughly 20% and urea up around 50% since the start of the Iran war.
- AAA data that diesel prices are up 43.5% since the Iran war began, sharply raising operating costs for U.S. farmers.
- American Farm Bureau Federation figure that U.S. farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025 compared with 2024, indicating farmers were already under strain before the war shock.
- On-the-ground reporting from Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge, who says his costs are already up about 25% since last year and warns the current situation could deter the next generation from farming.
- Expert commentary from former USDA Farm Service Agency official Scott Marlow that higher energy and input costs will raise prices at every step from seed to grocery-store shelves and are not driven by either farmers or consumers.
March 27, 2026
10:55 PM
U.S. troops wounded, planes damaged in Iranian strike on Saudi air base, official says
New information:
- Iran’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, says Tehran has agreed, at a U.N. request, to “facilitate and expedite” humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing war and strikes on its nuclear facilities.
- Bahreini frames this as evidence of Iran’s “continued commitment to supporting humanitarian efforts,” and the U.N. has announced a task force to address the war’s effects on aid delivery.
- The article notes this would be the first concrete breakthrough at Hormuz in a month of war, though details on implementation and verification are not yet clear.
8:49 PM
'The planting season is now,' but war in Iran has sparked a global fertilizer shortage
New information:
- Iran’s restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz are blocking nearly a third of global fertilizer trade, not just affecting oil and gas.
- The conflict has restricted about 30% of global urea trade, the most widely traded nitrogen fertilizer.
- Saudi Arabia produces roughly one‑fifth of the world’s phosphate fertilizer, and Gulf producers supply more than 40% of global sulfur used in fertilizer production.
- World Food Program deputy director Carl Skau warns that for poorer Northern Hemisphere farmers entering planting season, the best case is higher food prices next year and the worst case is reduced yields and crop failures.
- Ethiopia, which sources over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer via the Gulf through Djibouti, is already facing critical shortages during planting, according to University of Texas economist Raj Patel.
- Iran has told the U.N. it will allow humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through Hormuz, the first potential opening at the chokepoint after a month of war, but producers will still demand security guarantees before resuming normal cargoes.
2:19 PM
WATCH LIVE: Trump expected to offer support to U.S. farmers during Iran war
New information:
- The Trump administration announced it has eased restrictions on a group of Belarus-linked financial and potash companies, a sanctions-related shift tied to improving relations with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
- Earlier in March, Lukashenko met Trump’s special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, in Minsk and ordered the release of 250 political prisoners as part of a deal with Washington to secure some easing of U.S. penalties.
- The administration is framing this move alongside a promised 'variety' of policies Trump says he will roll out to 'support American farmers' as the Iran war disrupts nitrogen fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf and sends prices soaring.
- The article underscores that some U.S. farmers now cannot obtain key fertilizers 'at any price' because the Iran war has largely stopped exports of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf.