Iran War Fertilizer Disruptions Drive Up U.S. Farmers’ Costs and Threaten Crop Yields
The war in Iran and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have choked roughly a third of global fertilizer trade—about 30% of urea shipments—pushing ammonia prices up about 20%, urea about 50% and diesel nearly 43.5%, leaving some U.S. farmers unable to obtain key nitrogen fertilizers and sharply raising operating costs amid already rising bankruptcies. The U.S. has eased some sanctions on Belarus-linked potash firms and pledged support while Iran has tentatively agreed to facilitate humanitarian and agricultural shipments, but officials warn the supply shock could raise food prices, deepen financial stress for farmers and, in the worst cases, reduce yields or cause crop failures.
📌 Key Facts
- The Iran war and Iranian restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz have largely halted nitrogen fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf and are blocking roughly a third of global fertilizer trade, including about 30% of global urea shipments.
- Since the war began, key commodity prices have jumped: Oxford Economics data show ammonia up ~20% and urea up ~50%, while AAA reports diesel is up 43.5%, sharply raising operating costs for farmers.
- Gulf producers are central to global fertilizer supply chains: Saudi Arabia supplies roughly one‑fifth of the world’s phosphate and Gulf producers provide more than 40% of the sulfur used in fertilizer, while some countries (e.g., Ethiopia) source over 90% of nitrogen fertilizer via the Gulf through Djibouti and are already facing critical shortages.
- Some U.S. farmers say they cannot obtain key fertilizers 'at any price'; on-the-ground reporting notes individual farmers’ input costs are up about 25% year‑over‑year, and the American Farm Bureau reports U.S. farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025 versus 2024.
- International agencies and experts warn of serious downstream effects: the World Food Program deputy director says the best case is higher food prices next year and the worst case is reduced yields and crop failures for poorer Northern Hemisphere farmers entering planting season, while agricultural experts note higher energy and input costs will push prices up at every step from seed to grocery shelves.
- The U.S. administration announced it eased restrictions on Belarus‑linked financial and potash companies — part of a rapprochement that included Belarus releasing 250 political prisoners after a meeting between President Lukashenko and U.S. envoy John Coale — and framed the sanctions easing as one element of promised policies to 'support American farmers' amid fertilizer disruptions.
- Iran has told the U.N. it will 'facilitate and expedite' humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.N. has announced a task force to address war-related aid disruptions; however, this is described as the first potential opening after a month of war and producers say they will still require security guarantees, with implementation and verification details unclear.
- The combined effects of disrupted fertilizer exports, higher fuel and input costs, and already‑strained farm finances are creating immediate supply problems and raising the risk of higher consumer food prices, lower crop yields, and longer‑term threats to farm viability and the next generation of farmers.
📊 Relevant Data
In 2022, 95% of U.S. farm producers were White, while the number of Black farmers declined to 32,653 from 35,470 in 2017, representing about 1% of total producers; population percentages show Whites at approximately 59% of the U.S. population, Blacks at 13.6%.
Farm Producers - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — USDA NASS
The average size of Black-operated farms reached 163 acres in 2022, compared to the national average of about 444 acres for all farms.
2022 Census of Agriculture: Black-operated farm size continues to... — USDA ERS
The average age of U.S. farm producers in 2022 was 58.1 years, up from 57.5 in 2017, with 63.2% of agricultural workers over age 55.
Farm Producers - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service — USDA NASS
U.S. farm bankruptcies rose to 315 in 2025, a 46% increase from 216 in 2024, driven by declining farm income, rising debt levels, and higher operating costs.
Farm Bankruptcies Continued to Climb in 2025 — American Farm Bureau Federation
Food insecurity rates in 2023 were 24.4% for Black households and 20.2% for Latinx households, compared to the national average of 13.5%, with rates rising to 13.5% overall from 12.8% in 2022 amid increasing food prices.
Hunger & Poverty in America — Food Research & Action Center
📰 Source Timeline (5)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Oxford Economics data cited showing ammonia prices up roughly 20% and urea up around 50% since the start of the Iran war.
- AAA data that diesel prices are up 43.5% since the Iran war began, sharply raising operating costs for U.S. farmers.
- American Farm Bureau Federation figure that U.S. farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025 compared with 2024, indicating farmers were already under strain before the war shock.
- On-the-ground reporting from Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge, who says his costs are already up about 25% since last year and warns the current situation could deter the next generation from farming.
- Expert commentary from former USDA Farm Service Agency official Scott Marlow that higher energy and input costs will raise prices at every step from seed to grocery-store shelves and are not driven by either farmers or consumers.
- Iran’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, says Tehran has agreed, at a U.N. request, to “facilitate and expedite” humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing war and strikes on its nuclear facilities.
- Bahreini frames this as evidence of Iran’s “continued commitment to supporting humanitarian efforts,” and the U.N. has announced a task force to address the war’s effects on aid delivery.
- The article notes this would be the first concrete breakthrough at Hormuz in a month of war, though details on implementation and verification are not yet clear.
- Iran’s restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz are blocking nearly a third of global fertilizer trade, not just affecting oil and gas.
- The conflict has restricted about 30% of global urea trade, the most widely traded nitrogen fertilizer.
- Saudi Arabia produces roughly one‑fifth of the world’s phosphate fertilizer, and Gulf producers supply more than 40% of global sulfur used in fertilizer production.
- World Food Program deputy director Carl Skau warns that for poorer Northern Hemisphere farmers entering planting season, the best case is higher food prices next year and the worst case is reduced yields and crop failures.
- Ethiopia, which sources over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer via the Gulf through Djibouti, is already facing critical shortages during planting, according to University of Texas economist Raj Patel.
- Iran has told the U.N. it will allow humanitarian aid and agricultural shipments through Hormuz, the first potential opening at the chokepoint after a month of war, but producers will still demand security guarantees before resuming normal cargoes.
- The Trump administration announced it has eased restrictions on a group of Belarus-linked financial and potash companies, a sanctions-related shift tied to improving relations with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
- Earlier in March, Lukashenko met Trump’s special envoy for Belarus, John Coale, in Minsk and ordered the release of 250 political prisoners as part of a deal with Washington to secure some easing of U.S. penalties.
- The administration is framing this move alongside a promised 'variety' of policies Trump says he will roll out to 'support American farmers' as the Iran war disrupts nitrogen fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf and sends prices soaring.
- The article underscores that some U.S. farmers now cannot obtain key fertilizers 'at any price' because the Iran war has largely stopped exports of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf.