Rep. Seth Moulton Bans Staff From Political Prediction Markets and Backs Wider Federal Trading Ban
Rep. Seth Moulton has ordered an office-wide ban on staff trading in prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, framing it as an ethics measure to prevent profiting from policy decisions and world events and saying a nearly $500,000 winning bet on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster helped spur him to co-sponsor legislation with Rep. Ritchie Torres to bar federally elected officials, political appointees and executive employees from such markets. The push for broader action comes amid related proposals from Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley to ban contracts on elections, government actions and sports, controversies like Kalshi’s refusal to pay roughly $54 million on an Ali Khamenei ouster contract, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s assertion that these platforms are federally regulated derivatives—highlighting federal–state regulatory friction.
📌 Key Facts
- Rep. Seth Moulton instituted an office-wide ban on staff trading in prediction markets (including Kalshi and Polymarket), describing it as an ethics policy to prevent profiting from policy decisions and world events.
- Moulton co-sponsored a bill with Rep. Ritchie Torres to bar federally elected officials, political appointees, and executive employees from betting on prediction markets after a nearly $500,000 winning bet on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster was placed hours before the event.
- Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley introduced a separate bicameral bill to prohibit markets from offering contracts on elections, government actions, and sports.
- Prediction-market operator Kalshi refused to pay out about $54 million on a contract tied to the ouster of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, invoking a 'death carveout,' which prompted Senate Democrats to demand clearer CFTC guidance on markets that could incentivize injury or death.
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig has said these prediction markets are federally regulated derivatives platforms and therefore not subject to state sports-betting bans, highlighting federal–state regulatory friction.
📊 Relevant Data
Black Americans represent just 5.5 percent of top staff hires in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate in the 119th Congress, compared to their 13.6 percent share of the overall U.S. population.
Black Americans Represent Just 5 Percent of All Top Staff in the New U.S. Congress — The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education
Of the top staff hired by new and returning members in the 119th Congress, 20.1 percent are people of color.
Joint Center Tracker Second Update of Racial Diversity of Top Staff Hires in 119th Congress — Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies
Millennials and Gen Z were more aware of specific prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi according to a January 2026 survey.
Prediction Markets Are Sucking Huge Numbers of Young People Into Gambling — Futurism
Retail users on prediction markets have experienced a median return of -8% since mid-2025, compared to -5% on sports betting.
Retail traders fare worse on prediction markets than sportsbooks — CoinDesk
The legalization of online gambling increased the population-level risk of personal bankruptcy by roughly 25 percent, according to a scholarly study.
Opinion | The Casino That's Eating the World — The New York Times
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Specifies that Moulton’s office-wide ban applies to prediction markets broadly (Kalshi, Polymarket) and is framed as an ethics policy to prevent profiting from policy decisions and world events.
- Details that a nearly $500,000 winning bet on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster, placed hours before it happened, helped spur Moulton to co-sponsor a bill with Rep. Ritchie Torres to ban federally elected officials, political appointees, and executive employees from betting on prediction markets.
- Reports that Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley introduced a bicameral bill to ban markets from offering contracts on elections, government actions, and sports.
- Adds that Kalshi refused to pay out about $54 million on a contract about the ouster of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, invoking a ‘death carveout,’ prompting Senate Democrats to demand clearer CFTC guidance on markets that could incentivize injury or death.
- Notes CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s position that these markets are federally regulated derivatives platforms not subject to state sports-betting bans, highlighting federal–state regulatory friction.