Democrat Emily Gregory Flips Florida House District Including Trump’s Mar-a-Lago in Special Election
Democrat Emily Gregory narrowly defeated Trump‑endorsed Republican Jon Maples in a special election for Florida House District 87 — the district that includes Mar‑a‑Lago — with the Associated Press calling the race and Gregory leading by about 2.4 percentage points (roughly 797 votes) as nearly all ballots were counted. The seat was vacated when Republican Mike Caruso resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller after winning it by 19 points in 2024; county records show President Trump voted by mail in the contest even as he publicly criticized mail voting, and Democratic leaders framed the flip as the 29th GOP-held state legislative seat reclaimed since Trump took office and part of a broader trend tied to voter anger over rising costs.
📌 Key Facts
- Democrat Emily Gregory won the special election for Florida House District 87 (which includes Mar‑a‑Lago); the Associated Press called the race for her.
- Gregory defeated Trump‑endorsed Republican Jon Maples by about 2.4 percentage points — roughly 797 votes — with almost all votes counted.
- The seat was vacated after Republican Mike Caruso resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller; Caruso had won the district by 19 points in 2024.
- Former President Donald Trump personally urged voters to support Maples on social media and — despite publicly criticizing mail voting — voted by mail in the special election; county records show his ballot was counted.
- DLCC President Heather Williams framed the result as the 29th GOP‑held seat Democrats have flipped since Trump took office and tied the win to voter anger over gas, grocery and inflation; DNC Chair Ken Martin said neighbors "sent a crystal clear message" that they are "furious and ready for change."
- The result is being reported as part of a broader, multi‑state pattern of Democratic gains since the start of Trump’s second term, including recent flips in Texas, Minnesota and other GOP‑held offices (e.g., a Miami mayoralty and a Texas state Senate seat).
- Emily Gregory is a first‑time candidate and small business owner who runs a fitness company for pregnant and postpartum women; her campaign emphasized affordability, public education and affordable health care, and she said she was "pretty shocked" after the win.
- Context: Democrats have lost roughly 800 state legislative seats over the past 15 years (per National Conference of State Legislatures data), underscoring why individual flips are seen as notable.
📊 Relevant Data
The Hispanic or Latino population in Palm Beach County increased from 23.4% (349,933 individuals) in 2020 to 25.6% in 2024, out of a total population that grew from 1,492,191 to approximately 1,518,000.
Palm Beach County 2020 Census Data — Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research
In Palm Beach County, the median household income is $63,059 for Black or African American households, $88,658 for White households, and $96,658 for Asian households, based on 2019-2023 data adjusted to 2023 dollars.
Palm Beach County, FL Median Household Income By Race - 2025 Update — Neilsberg
Homeownership rates in Palm Beach County are 52% for Black residents, 59% for Hispanic residents, and 77% for White residents as of 2023.
Racial inequities in housing persist in Palm Beach County, study finds — WLRN
Approximately 27.7% of Palm Beach County residents are foreign-born as of 2020-2024, reflecting ongoing immigration contributing to population growth.
Palm Beach County, Florida - U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts — U.S. Census Bureau
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
"A Playbook commentary uses the Emily Gregory flip in the Florida House district that includes Mar‑a‑Lago to argue that Trump’s marquee endorsement and the Mar‑a‑Lago brand have limited down‑ballot potency, signaling political trouble for Republicans unless they adjust strategy."
📰 Source Timeline (5)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Adds Associated Press/PBS confirmation that the district was previously represented by Republican Mike Caruso, who resigned to become Palm Beach County clerk.
- Specifies that Caruso won the district by 19 percentage points in 2024, sharpening the sense of partisan swing.
- Quotes DLCC president Heather Williams saying this is the 29th seat Democrats have flipped from GOP control since Trump took office and tying the win to voter anger over gas and grocery prices.
- Includes Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin’s quote that "Donald Trump's own neighbors just sent a crystal clear message: They are furious and ready for change."
- Notes that Trump personally urged voters on social media to support Republican Jon Maples and then voted by mail in the special election, with county records showing his ballot was counted, despite his public campaign to restrict mail voting.
- Provides limited biographical detail on Emily Gregory as a first-time candidate and owner of a fitness company serving pregnant and postpartum women, saying she was "pretty shocked" and having an "out-of-body experience" after the win.
- Adds broader context that Democrats have recently flipped other GOP-held offices in Florida (Miami mayor) and in Texas (a state Senate seat), framing this as part of a multi-state trend.
- Confirms the Associated Press has called the race for Emily Gregory in Florida House District 87.
- Specifies that Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples, naming the GOP nominee.
- Clarifies that the vacancy arose after Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Republican Mike Caruso Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller in August.
- Adds that Gregory is a small business owner whose campaign focused on affordability, public education and affordable healthcare.
- Notes that since the start of Trump’s second term, Democrats have flipped several other Republican-held districts, including ones in Texas and Minnesota, framing this as part of a broader pattern.
- Margin detail: With almost all votes counted, Emily Gregory led by 2.4 percentage points, or 797 votes.
- Historical baseline: The same district was won by Republican Mike Caruso by 19 percentage points in 2024.
- Explicit confirmation that Trump voted by mail in this special election, despite calling mail voting 'mail-in cheating' as recently as Monday.
- DLCC President Heather Williams framed the result as 'Mar-a-Lago just flipped red to blue' and said it is the 29th GOP-held district Democrats have flipped since Trump took office, tying the win to broader midterm strategy and voter anger over inflation.
- Context data point: Democrats have lost around 800 state legislative seats over the last 15 years, per National Conference of State Legislatures data cited in the piece.