Photo: W. Bulach | CC BY-SA 4.0 | Wikimedia Commons
Iran War Oil Shock Lifts U.S. Mortgage Rates to 6.46% and Threatens Spring Housing Demand
Investor and market reactions to the Iran war — including effective closures of the Strait of Hormuz, repeated attacks on tankers and strikes across the Gulf — have pushed oil above $100 a barrel and U.S. gas past $4 a gallon, lifted 10‑year Treasury yields and driven the average 30‑year mortgage to about 6.46% (Freddie Mac). The shock has dimmed hopes for Fed rate cuts, raised recession odds and consumer unease, and threatens to push many buyers and sellers off the market, undermining the expected spring housing recovery.
📌 Key Facts
- The Strait of Hormuz is effectively being kept closed to most tanker traffic by Iranian actions and attacks, with on‑the‑water evidence of blocked transits, Iran charging passage 'fees' at Larak, threats to other chokepoints such as Bab el‑Mandeb, and a recent Iranian drone/strike on the Kuwaiti VLCC Al‑Salmi off Dubai.
- Oil and fuel prices have surged: Brent and U.S. crude have traded above $100/barrel (Brent often around $107–$115 and U.S. crude topping $110 after a U.S. presidential address), while U.S. average gasoline has risen above $4.00 per gallon and diesel above $5.00 per gallon.
- Financial markets have reacted sharply — equities have fallen (the S&P 500 is several percent to roughly single‑digit percent levels below pre‑war highs, with multiweek losing streaks and sharp drops in Asian and European markets after escalation), and volatility has increased globally.
- Borrowing costs have jumped: the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield rose from roughly 3.96–3.97% before the Feb. 28 attacks to about 4.3–4.45%, Treasury auctions showed weaker demand, and 30‑year fixed mortgage rates have climbed into the mid‑6% range (Freddie Mac reporting about 6.46%, other trackers briefly higher), cooling spring housing demand.
- Market‑implied Fed expectations shifted toward no rate cuts and even a nontrivial chance of higher policy rates this year (CME FedWatch and related pricing), as investors build a higher term premium tied to war‑related fiscal and inflation uncertainty.
- Economists warn of broader macro risk: Goldman Sachs raised U.S. recession odds to about 30% (attributing the rise to energy price shocks), EY‑Parthenon raised severe downturn odds, some prominent economists have revived 'stagflation' concerns, and inflation expectations have ticked up (University of Michigan preliminary March reading showed expectations rising to about 3.8%).
- Households are already feeling the impact: congressional and market estimates show Americans have spent billions more on gasoline since the war began (a Joint Economic Committee Democrats estimate cited $8.4 billion), consumer sentiment has fallen (UMich down to the low 50s), and examples show typical mortgage payments jumping materially as rates rose.
- The military campaign and regional defenses are large in scale and shape the market shock: CENTCOM and other tallies cite thousands of targets struck and over a hundred vessels damaged or destroyed, regional defenses (and a layered U.S./allied posture) reportedly intercept more than 90% of incoming missiles/drones, but analysts warn of a dangerous cost imbalance between cheap Iranian munitions and expensive interceptors and of destroyed infrastructure that could take years to repair.
- Diplomatic and political responses remain unsettled: Bahrain has pushed a Chapter VII U.N. resolution authorizing 'all necessary means' to keep Hormuz open while France offered a non‑Chapter VII de‑escalation resolution; the U.S. position has been ambiguous, the U.K. is organizing a separate summit on reopening the strait, and high‑level rhetoric (including the U.S. president urging allies to 'take' the strait and promising more strikes) has added to market uncertainty.
📊 Relevant Data
In 2024, the median household income for Asian households in the US was $121,700, compared to $92,530 for non-Hispanic White households, $70,950 for Hispanic households, $56,020 for Black households, and $59,050 for American Indian and Alaska Native households.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the homeownership rate for Asian Americans was 63%, compared to 73.8% for non-Hispanic White Americans, 49% for Hispanic Americans, and 44.5% for Black Americans.
Homeownership Rates by Race and Ethnicity — Eye On Housing
Black and Latino households pay 13-18% more on average for energy per square foot of housing compared to White households.
Race, rates, and energy insecurity: exploring racial disparities in utility rates — Nature Scientific Reports
📊 Analysis & Commentary (5)
The economic consequences of the Iran war
"A sober deep‑dive arguing that the Iran war’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and related energy shocks are already reshaping inflation, Fed policy and global supply chains, and that policymakers must pursue de‑escalation and targeted economic measures to avoid longer‑term damage."
Can the Federal Reserve Please Shut Up?
"A WSJ opinion piece criticizes the Fed’s routine public economic projections and press commentary, arguing that frequent forecasting errors unsettle markets and damage the central bank’s credibility and that the Fed should exercise greater restraint in its public communications."
‘Renewable’ Energy Gives Us a Crisis
"The WSJ opinion argues that while the Iran war is a proximate trigger of higher fuel prices, the real crisis stems from Western policy choices pushing a premature shift to renewables that left the world dependent on fossil fuels and vulnerable to supply shocks."
The World Needs a Stronger U.N.
"Lula argues that great‑power unilateralism and the Security Council's paralysis (especially through the veto) are eroding international law across numerous conflicts and urges strengthening the U.N. to restore multilateral constraints and global security."
The Iran war is raising your mortgage rate
"The piece argues that the Iran war’s disruption to oil supplies is raising inflation and Treasury yields, which in turn are pushing up mortgage rates and worsening housing affordability for ordinary Americans."
📰 Source Timeline (26)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
April 02, 2026
7:32 PM
As mortgage rates hit 6.48%, experts see housing market losing momentum
New information:
- Freddie Mac now reports the average 30-year fixed conventional mortgage rate at 6.46%, the highest since September 2025, after dipping below 6% in late February.
- The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.26%, up from 3.96% just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, explicitly linking the rate move to the war.
- PNC Financial Services economists now forecast mortgage rates will remain above 6% through 2026 as markets price in higher expected inflation.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association has downgraded its 2026 home sales outlook, citing softer demand from higher rates, after previously forecasting about an 8% increase.
- Realtor.com’s Jake Krimmel says the 2026 spring season had been expected to be a rebound year after Trump’s 'liberation day' tariffs hurt last spring’s market, but the Iran war-driven rate spike is undermining that recovery.
- Oxford Economics warns the Iran war’s effects on rates and uncertainty will likely push many buyers and sellers back to the sidelines during the crucial spring period.
- CBS uses an example borrower whose quoted rate jumped from 5.85% to 6.49% after the war began, increasing monthly payments by $265 and total costs by about $84,600 over a 30-year loan with 20% down.
3:58 PM
Buying a home just got more expensive as the Iran war drives up mortgage rates
New information:
- Freddie Mac data show the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.38% for the week ending March 26, up from 5.98% before the Iran conflict and the highest since early September.
- Fox reports that mortgage rates had dipped below 6% for the first time in more than three years just weeks before the war, and the reversal is already cooling expectations for a strong spring housing market.
- AAA data cited put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.06 per gallon and diesel at $5.04 as of April 1, increases of $1.08 and $1.73 respectively over the prior month.
- GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan is quoted saying gas prices are unlikely to return to pre‑war levels for months because rebuilding global inventories will take time, with seasonal demand and refinery maintenance adding to the pressure.
1:22 PM
US crude tops $110 per barrel and Wall Street tumbles after Trump vows to escalate attacks on Iran
New information:
- Provides a specific intraday move: benchmark U.S. crude up $10.11 to $110.24 per barrel, outpacing Brent at $109.38.
- Clarifies that the price of U.S. crude actually rose above the type of crude bottled up by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Adds detail from Trump’s address that he said U.S. “core strategic objectives are nearing completion,” while again omitting any clear plan or deadline for reopening Hormuz.
- Includes an Iranian military spokesman’s claim that key weapons stockpiles and production facilities remain hidden and untouched by U.S. strikes.
- Quotes Tokyo-based strategist Takashi Hiroki saying markets were disappointed by the lack of concrete ceasefire or endgame details in Trump’s remarks.
- Documents specific same-day moves in Asian and European stock indexes (e.g., Nikkei -2.4%, Kospi -4.5%, DAX -2.4%) tied to the war- and oil-driven shock.
- Notes that U.S. markets have not posted a weekly gain since the Iran war began in late February, underscoring the sustained drag.
1:07 PM
Oil prices jump and Wall Street tumbles after Trump vows to escalate attacks on Iran
New information:
- Benchmark U.S. crude rose $10.11 to $110.24 a barrel after Trump’s address, outpacing Brent, which climbed more than 8% to $109.38.
- U.S. stock index futures fell ahead of the Good Friday holiday: S&P 500 down 1.5%, Dow down 1.4%, Nasdaq down 2%, and global equity markets in Europe and Asia also declined.
- Trump’s first national address since the Iran war began said U.S. “core strategic objectives are nearing completion” and vowed to escalate the campaign in coming weeks but again omitted any clear plan or deadline discussion for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iranian military spokesman Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari claimed Iran has undisclosed stockpiles and hidden production sites beyond U.S. reach, dismissing prior strikes as hitting “insignificant” targets.
- Tokyo-based strategist Takashi Hiroki said markets were disappointed because Trump’s speech offered no “concrete details about the end of the hostilities with Iran” or a clear ceasefire outline.
12:33 PM
Stocks recoil and oil surges after Trump vows to continue hitting Iran
New information:
- S&P 500 futures fell 1.6% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures 0.9% in pre‑market trading after Trump’s latest speech vowing to continue strikes on Iran for two to three more weeks with no reopening plan for the Strait of Hormuz.
- The article pegs Brent crude at $108.69 per barrel (up 7.4%) and U.S. benchmark crude at $107.24 (up 7.1%) immediately after the speech, tying the spike directly to his remarks.
- AAA data show the U.S. average gasoline price ticked up to $4.08 per gallon on Thursday from $4.06 the previous day.
- Oxford Economics economist Ryan Sweet says the Strait could remain effectively shut to oil tankers through the end of April, warning the longer it stays closed the less effective U.S. SPR releases will be.
- Paul Krugman tells CBS it is “not at all hard to tell a $150 [per barrel] story” for oil and “not crazy” to imagine $200, while Oxford Economics’ Bernard Yaros says gas will likely keep climbing above $4 if Hormuz remains closed.
- The article explicitly cites the Joint Economic Committee Democrats’ estimate that U.S. drivers have already spent an additional $8.4 billion on gasoline since the war began Feb. 28.
10:14 AM
Iran continues strikes across the Persian Gulf despite Trump's warning
New information:
- The story provides CENTCOM’s first detailed tally of over 12,300 targets and more than 155 vessels destroyed or damaged, giving scale to the military campaign that underlies earlier market reactions to the lack of a ceasefire or Hormuz plan.
- It shows that despite prior hopes, Iran is continuing to fire missiles and drones at Gulf countries, and a suspected drone strike has hit an oil warehouse near Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, underscoring the ongoing threat to energy infrastructure.
- The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has issued a new security alert warning of possible attacks by Iran‑backed militias, signaling persistent regional instability that markets are closely watching.
- Trump’s line that the U.S. does not use the Strait of Hormuz and that other countries must protect it themselves, coupled with a 35‑nation U.K.‑hosted summit to discuss reopening the strait without U.S. participation, further underlines that there is still no concrete, U.S.-led reopening plan in place.
- Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai publicly rejects Trump’s portrayal of the talks and calls the war illegal and disastrous for the region, adding diplomatic friction to an already volatile market backdrop.
9:35 AM
Oil prices rise after Trump insists the Iran war is going to plan
New information:
- After Trump’s Wednesday night address claiming U.S. objectives in Iran are ‘nearly met’ and promising 2–3 more weeks of strikes, Brent crude jumped 6.9% to $108.15 a barrel and U.S. benchmark crude rose 6.4% to $106.55 in early Thursday trading.
- Asian equity markets fell sharply following the speech — with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.4%, South Korea’s Kospi down 4.5%, India’s Sensex off 1.9% and others also lower — while U.S. equity futures dropped more than 1.2%.
- Markets sold off because Trump offered no concrete details on ending hostilities or reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Tokyo strategist Takashi Hiroki saying the speech was ‘far less than what the market expected’ and that investors want a clear ceasefire outline.
- The article notes U.S. gasoline is already averaging over $4 per gallon and analysts say higher fuel costs are likely to push up grocery prices next, tightening the squeeze on U.S. households.
- Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published an English-language open letter on X appealing directly to the American public, calling strikes on Iranian energy and industrial infrastructure ‘war crimes,’ questioning whether the war serves U.S. interests, and suggesting Washington may be acting as a proxy for Israel.
April 01, 2026
8:20 PM
How high could oil and gas prices go if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed?
New information:
- Paul Krugman tells CBS it is 'not at all hard' to see oil at $150 per barrel and 'not crazy' to reach $200 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
- Oxford Economics’ Bridget Payne says oil could rise above $150 a barrel within weeks if the strait stays too dangerous to navigate and warns that current U.S. supply moves cannot match the lost volumes.
- Lloyd’s List Intelligence data show that since the Iran war began, more than 70% of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz are Iran-linked and total flows are down by as many as 16 million barrels per day from the normal 20 million.
- GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan projects the U.S. national average gasoline price could climb to about $4.12–$4.15 per gallon in the near term, depending on what Trump says in his primetime address.
- The latest reported U.S. average gasoline price is $4.06 per gallon, the highest since August 2022.
March 31, 2026
9:52 PM
Iran strikes Kuwait oil tanker off Dubai, state media says
New information:
- CBS restates that Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker off Dubai and casts it as the 'latest target' in its ongoing confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The segment underscores that the strike is being reported by Iranian state media, adding explicit attribution on the source of the initial public claim.
- CBS again links the specific tanker attack to Trump’s threat to hit Iranian energy plants if Hormuz traffic is not restored.
11:59 AM
Watch Live: Pete Hegseth, Dan Caine hold news briefing as Iran strikes Kuwaiti oil tanker
New information:
- Confirms via KUNA that the tanker referenced in earlier coverage is the Kuwaiti VLCC Al‑Salmi and that Kuwait’s state oil company calls it a ‘giant crude oil tanker’ attacked by Iran while at Dubai anchorage.
- Provides contemporaneous confirmation that U.S. average gasoline prices have now crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, reinforcing the connection between the tanker attack, the broader war, and U.S. pump prices.
- Adds Trump’s new social media message urging countries like the U.K. to ‘go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT’ and to stop expecting U.S. military protection, escalating public rhetoric around control of Hormuz amid already strained shipping and energy markets.
10:21 AM
Gas price rises as Iranian drone hits tanker off Dubai and war grinds on
New information:
- Average U.S. gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon for the first time in almost four years amid mounting concern over the Iran war’s impact on oil supply and tanker safety.
- An Iranian drone strike has set the Kuwaiti VLCC Al‑Salmi ablaze off Dubai, with state media warning of material damage to the hull and a possible oil spill near one of the world’s busiest maritime hubs.
- The article highlights that Persian Gulf desalination plants, including those on Iran’s Qeshm Island and in Kuwait, are being damaged or threatened, underscoring a new front in the conflict that could deepen regional instability and feed market anxiety.
10:12 AM
Trump tells Europe 'get your own oil,' Iran hits oil tanker off Dubai
New information:
- Confirms the Kuwaiti tanker attacked off Dubai suffered a fire that Emirati officials now say was extinguished without an oil spill or injuries.
- Provides Trump’s combative response to allies about oil shortages — telling European states to 'get your own oil' and to buy from the U.S. or go 'take' oil at the Strait — which underpins market fears of a more chaotic scramble for supplies.
- Reports that the UAE Ministry of Defense said it was actively defending against new missiles and drones from Iran overnight and that Saudi Arabia also reported fresh drone attacks linked to the conflict.
- Details additional Israeli operations in Tehran and southern Lebanon that contribute to the broader risk premium in oil markets, including new strikes on government infrastructure in the Iranian capital and more IDF casualties in Lebanon.
5:59 AM
U.S. attacks Iranian nuclear site while Tehran hits oil tanker off the Dubai coast
New information:
- Places current Brent crude spot prices at around $107 a barrel—a slight pullback from the above‑$110 levels noted earlier but still more than 45% higher than before the war—linking this to specific new attacks in Iran and the Gulf.
- Adds concrete military drivers behind the sustained high oil prices: a likely U.S. strike on nuclear‑related facilities near Isfahan and an Iranian drone attack that set a fully loaded Kuwaiti tanker ablaze near Dubai.
- Reinforces that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains effective, continuing to restrict tanker traffic and support a war‑risk premium in energy markets.
March 30, 2026
3:03 PM
Brent crude touches $115 a barrel, while U.S. stocks recover some losses
New information:
- Brent crude briefly hit $115 per barrel on Monday before retreating to $107.95; WTI rose about 2% to $101.70.
- U.S. stocks partially recovered after a five-week slide, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Dow up 381 points (0.85%), and the Nasdaq up 0.3% in early trading.
- The S&P 500 is now trading about 7.4% below its all-time high, with valuations estimated roughly 17% cheaper than before the Iran war when measured against expected earnings, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
- The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.35% from 4.44% Friday, providing some relief after earlier war-driven jumps.
- Strategists at Morgan Stanley, led by Michael Wilson, say current pricing and historical parallels are 'growing evidence the S&P 500 correction is getting closer to its ending stages,' while other analysts warn that without a clear endgame in Iran, volatility will persist.
March 29, 2026
1:44 PM
MAPPED: Where gas prices are rising the fastest from the Iran conflict
New information:
- AAA now pegs the national average gasoline price at $3.98 per gallon, up $1 from a month ago.
- AAA reports average diesel at $5.41 per gallon, up $1.65 over the same period and above $5 for the first time since December 2022.
- State‑level snapshots show particularly high gas prices of $5.87 in California, $5.32 in Washington, $4.21 in Illinois, $4.16 in Washington, D.C., and $3.96 in Florida, with Texas at $3.60 and South Carolina at $3.64.
5:54 AM
Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on
New information:
- The article adds detailed, sector‑specific channels — LNG, fertilizer, helium — through which the Iran war’s energy shock can transmit into inflation and slower growth, providing more concrete underpinnings for the heightened risk premiums previously reported in Treasury and mortgage markets.
- It cites prominent economists, including Carmen Reinhart and Gita Gopinath, explicitly reviving the term "stagflation" and quantifying an expected 0.3–0.4 percentage point drag on global growth if oil merely averages $85, with current prices already higher.
- The story underscores that the war is now destroying infrastructure with multi‑year repair timelines rather than simply temporarily disrupting flows, suggesting the yield spike and mortgage‑rate effects may prove more persistent than initially assumed.
March 27, 2026
5:07 PM
Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz blocked, and threatens another key waterway
New information:
- Adds granular on‑the‑water evidence that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut to most traffic, not just ‘at risk’: three Chinese‑owned ships turned back, only Larak‑corridor transits, and zero southern‑route passages in late March.
- Documents the IRGC’s formal declaration that any ship ‘to and from’ ports of allies of the ‘Zionist‑American’ enemies is prohibited absent Iranian permission.
- Details Iran’s extraction of up to $2 million per ship as a passage ‘fee’ at Larak Island, introducing an explicit extortion element to the disruption.
- Identifies Bab el‑Mandeb as a potential second chokepoint Iran may target, compounding market fears about sustained oil‑supply constraints.
3:55 PM
Borrowing costs are surging amid Iran war
New information:
- 10‑year Treasury yield has risen from 3.96% just before the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran to about 4.45% intraday on March 27, then 4.42%, with only about one‑fifth of that move explained by higher inflation expectations.
- Recent auctions of 2‑, 5‑, and 7‑year Treasury notes showed weaker‑than‑expected demand, forcing the government to accept lower prices and higher yields on new debt.
- Average 30‑year fixed mortgage rates have climbed from 5.99% at the end of February to 6.62% as of Thursday, a sharp run‑up since the war began.
- Market pricing via CME FedWatch now assigns roughly a 40% probability that the Fed’s policy rate will be higher at year‑end than today, despite no explicit Fed signal about hikes; Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson instead emphasized elevated uncertainty and a 'wait and see' stance.
- Analysts such as RSM’s Joe Brusuelas say the bond market is building in a higher term premium tied to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability, war‑related borrowing, and volatility in Treasuries, not just to short‑term inflation.
3:43 PM
Stocks tumble as Wall Street nears longest losing streak in nearly 4 years
New information:
- U.S. stocks are on track for a fifth straight weekly decline, the longest losing streak for Wall Street in nearly four years, with the S&P 500 now about 8% below its recent all‑time high and back to August levels.
- On the reported Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.85% to 6,422, the Dow dropped 0.8% to 45,589, and the Nasdaq slid 1.3%, following the worst market drop since the Iran war began on February 28.
- Brent crude rose 2.2% to $104.13 a barrel and U.S. benchmark crude climbed 3% to $97.28, while Macquarie strategists are warning oil could hit $200 per barrel if the war lasts through June.
- The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.44% from 3.97% before the war, contributing to higher mortgage and loan rates for households and businesses.
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary March consumer sentiment index has fallen to its lowest reading since December 2025, with the drop more pronounced among middle‑ and higher‑income, stock‑owning households.
2:58 PM
Consumer confidence slides amid concerns over the Iran war
New information:
- University of Michigan’s preliminary March consumer sentiment index fell 5.8% from 56.6 to 53.3, the lowest reading since December 2025.
- The drop in sentiment was steeper among middle‑ and high‑income households, reflecting heavier exposure to stock‑market volatility since the Iran war began on February 28.
- Inflation expectations rose from 3.4% in February to 3.8% in March, the largest one‑month jump since April 2025.
- The S&P 500 has fallen almost 6% since the start of the Iran war, while the national average gas price has climbed to $3.98 per gallon, roughly $1 higher since the conflict began.
- A CBS News poll of 3,335 U.S. adults found 85% say local gas prices are going up and 90% expect higher U.S. gas and oil prices in the short term due to the war.
2:31 PM
Iran war fallout raises odds of a U.S. recession, economists say
New information:
- Goldman Sachs now pegs the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 30%, explicitly attributing the increase to higher energy prices from the Iran war; it also estimates the conflict will lift U.S. inflation by about 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% by year‑end.
- EY‑Parthenon has raised its estimate of a "severe" downturn in the next year to 40% from 35% following the Feb. 28 U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, citing persistent inflation tied to disrupted oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The article reports that roughly 20% of global crude and natural gas normally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, which is described as "all but closed" to oil tankers and other shipping traffic because of the war.
- CBS News cites AAA data showing the average U.S. gas price at $3.98 per gallon, up about $1 from a month ago, and diesel at $5.37 per gallon versus $3.75 a month earlier, while Brent crude has risen to about $101.89 and U.S. crude to $94.43, roughly a 40% jump since Feb. 28.
- Goldman Sachs economists expect Middle East fertilizer disruptions to raise U.S. food prices by about 1.5% this year, and note key fertilizer products like urea and ammonia have already climbed in price since the war began.
- The U.S. Postal Service has imposed a temporary 8% postage surcharge to offset higher transportation costs, airlines are adding fuel surcharges and raising ticket prices, and economists warn that if oil hits $150 a barrel, the recession odds would exceed 50%.
March 26, 2026
10:00 AM
More than 90% of Iranian missiles intercepted, but a dangerous imbalance is emerging
New information:
- New JINSA report (obtained by Fox) finds that over 90% of Iranian missiles and drones have been intercepted by a regional layered air‑defense architecture built up over years of U.S., Israeli and Arab coordination.
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says at a Wednesday briefing that more than 9,000 enemy targets have been struck, Iran’s ballistic‑missile and drone attacks are down about 90%, and U.S. forces have destroyed more than 140 Iranian naval vessels, including nearly 50 mine‑layers.
- Experts Ari Cicurel (JINSA) and Danny Citrinowicz (INSS/Atlantic Council) emphasize a widening cost imbalance: Iranian drones around $30,000 and relatively cheap missiles versus U.S./Israeli interceptors that cost millions, raising concerns over interceptor depletion and sustainability even as interception rates remain high.
- The article details the pre‑war U.S. surge of air‑defense assets—THAAD and Patriot batteries, two carrier strike groups, and roughly 200 fighter aircraft—as key to absorbing Iran’s opening salvos and maintaining high kill rates.
March 25, 2026
6:42 PM
Poll shows most Americans feel war against Iran has gone too far
New information:
- AP‑NORC national poll finds about 59% of Americans say recent U.S. military action in Iran has "gone too far."
- Around 45% of Americans are "extremely" or "very" worried about being able to afford gasoline in coming months, up from 30% just after Trump’s reelection.
- Roughly two‑thirds of Americans say preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon should be an extremely or very important U.S. foreign‑policy goal, but they are just as likely to say keeping U.S. oil and gas prices from rising is highly important.
- Only about 4 in 10 Americans say preventing Iran from threatening Israel is a top priority, and only about 3 in 10 view replacing Iran’s government with a more U.S.‑friendly one as very important.
- About 9 in 10 Democrats and about 6 in 10 independents say the attacks in Iran have gone too far, while Republicans are more divided; Trump’s overall job approval remains at about 4 in 10, little changed from last month.
6:46 AM
Chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut fade as inflation worsens
New information:
- Reports that longer-term interest rates have risen quickly since the Iran war began Feb. 28, increasing the cost of mortgages, auto loans and business borrowing.
- States that futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch now implies investors see no Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and nearly a 25% chance of a rate hike by October, up from zero a week earlier.
- Quotes Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee telling AP that if inflation rises while unemployment stays stable and expectations drift up, 'rate increases have to be on the table.'
- Quotes San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly saying the uncertainty from the Iran war means 'there is no single most-likely path' for the Fed’s policy rate, implying it could move up, down or stay unchanged.
- Notes Chair Jerome Powell has said it is harder now for the Fed to assume an energy-price shock will be temporary given inflation has been above the 2% target for five years, souring public views of the economy.
March 24, 2026
8:49 PM
Bahrain's UN proposal calling for 'all necessary means' to open Strait of Hormuz faces opposition
New information:
- Bahrain, as the Arab representative on the Security Council, is leading a push for a Chapter Seven resolution authorizing 'all necessary means' to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
- The draft would formally authorize naval partnerships to use military action to secure shipping and deter efforts to close or obstruct the strait.
- The U.S. position on the Bahrain draft is not yet clear, though U.S. envoy Mike Waltz has publicly said Washington prefers 'regional leadership' on the Hormuz issue.
- France has tabled a rival, non–Chapter Seven resolution that does not name Iran and calls for de-escalation and diplomacy instead of implied force.
- Diplomats say Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and that attacks on ships have halted nearly all tanker traffic, deepening the energy squeeze that is driving fuel prices higher.