Iran War and Trump Policies Drive New Cost Squeeze on U.S. Farmers
An NPR report details how the Iran war’s disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is sending U.S. farmers’ nitrogen fertilizer costs sharply higher on top of already elevated diesel prices, tightening margins that former USDA chief economist Joseph Glauber says are now "tight and in some cases negative." Illinois corn and soybean grower Dave O’Brien describes diesel bills in the thousands of dollars and says Trump‑era policies—from tariffs that pushed China toward South American soybeans to stepped‑up deportations that thinned farm labor—are "choking" producers. The piece explains how higher nitrogen costs are expected to push some acreage from corn into soybeans, which in turn is weighing further on already weak soybean prices after the administration delayed a planned meeting with China, the top U.S. soy export market. USDA officials, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, stress that the president is aware of the pressure heading into planting season and tout more than $30 billion in direct aid last year, including a $12 billion program launched in December, while experts and farm leaders like Minnesota Farmers Union president Gary Wertish warn that large, recurring subsidies are not a sustainable substitute for stable markets and input prices. The story underscores how overlapping war, trade and immigration decisions out of Washington are converging into a prolonged financial squeeze on rural producers who have historically formed a key part of Trump’s political base.
📌 Key Facts
- U.S. bombing of Iran and restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted nitrogen fertilizer flows, driving up fertilizer prices for U.S. farmers.
- Farmers are also facing higher diesel costs, with individual producers reporting fuel bills in the thousands of dollars for planting.
- Economist Joseph Glauber says farm cash margins are now tight or negative, as higher input costs combine with weaker soybean prices after the Trump administration delayed a planned meeting with China.
- USDA under Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins points to a $12 billion aid program announced in December and more than $30 billion in total direct aid to farmers last year, but acknowledges the administration is still looking for ways to lower fertilizer prices.
- Minnesota Farmers Union president Gary Wertish argues repeated subsidies function as a political bailout rather than a durable solution for farm finances.
📊 Relevant Data
In 2022, 42% of U.S. farmworkers were undocumented, 39% were U.S. citizens by birth or naturalization, and 19% held green cards.
As Trump policy changes loom, nearly half of farmworkers lack legal status — Investigate Midwest
Seventy-five percent of all U.S. crop workers are Hispanic, while among U.S.-born crop workers, 26% are Hispanic; Hispanics make up about 19% of the U.S. population.
Findings from the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS) 2019-2020: A Demographic and Employment Profile of United States Farmworkers — U.S. Department of Labor
The Bracero Program, from 1942 to 1964, brought over four million Mexican workers to the U.S. to address agricultural labor shortages during and after World War II, establishing a precedent for reliance on temporary migrant labor in U.S. agriculture.
1942: Bracero Program — Library of Congress
U.S. soybean exports to China accounted for $12.6 billion in 2024, representing about half of total U.S. soybean export value of $24.5 billion, but Trump's tariffs led to significant declines, with Ohio farmers experiencing a 74% loss in sales to China in one year due to the trade war.
Ohio farmers see one-year, 74% loss in Chinese sales due largely to Trump tariffs, report shows — Ohio Capital Journal
Global fertilizer prices surged 21% in early 2026 due to trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz contributing to sharp increases in nitrogen fertilizer costs.
Global Fertilizer Prices Set to Surge 21% as Trade Restrictions Bite — The Chronicle Journal
📰 Source Timeline (1)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time