Iran War and DHS Shutdown Combine to Drive U.S. Air Travel Disruptions and Higher Fares
Axios reports that U.S. air travelers face a 'spring of hell' as President Trump’s Iran war and a partial DHS shutdown converge to drive up costs and strain security. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby says jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks and that United is planning for oil to reach $175 a barrel and stay above $100 until the end of 2027, signaling sustained fare increases tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, TSA officers are working unpaid and about to miss a second paycheck, with many calling out or quitting, prompting multi‑hour security lines and aviation security expert Jeffrey Price warning that the system is close to a 'breaking point' and that closures of smaller airports are a real risk. In response, Trump is sending ICE agents to hard‑hit airports to guard exits and check IDs — despite their lack of screening training — and has publicly floated bringing in the National Guard if that fails, a move that is already raising civil‑liberties and competence concerns. The article also notes renewed safety fears after a fatal LaGuardia runway collision that killed two pilots even though both the plane and fire truck were cleared onto the same runway, underscoring broader worries about controller workload in an overstressed aviation system.
📌 Key Facts
- United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby says jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the past three weeks and that United’s plans assume oil rises to $175/barrel and remains above $100 until the end of 2027.
- TSA screeners are working without pay during a partial DHS shutdown, are about to miss a second paycheck, and hundreds have already left, contributing to hours‑long airport security lines.
- Aviation security expert Jeffrey Price tells Axios the system is 'very close to reaching a breaking point' and warns that smaller U.S. airports could be forced to close because they cannot reassign staff like larger hubs.
- President Trump is deploying ICE agents to major airports to try to ease TSA bottlenecks and has said he will consider sending in the National Guard if that is not enough.
- The article links these disruptions to the Iran war’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is driving an oil price spike that airline executives say will push fares higher.
📊 Relevant Data
As of 2024, there were approximately 750,000 Iranian Americans living in the United States, representing about 0.2% of the total U.S. population.
7 facts about Iranians in the U.S. — Pew Research Center
Black and Latino households pay 13-18% more on average for energy per square foot of housing compared to White households, with minorities more likely to live in older homes contributing to higher energy burdens.
The TSA workforce demographics show that 53.9% are White, 22.2% Hispanic or Latino, and 14.3% Black or African American, compared to U.S. population percentages of approximately 60% White, 19% Hispanic, and 13% Black.
Transportation security officer demographics and statistics in the US — Zippia
During the partial government shutdown in March 2026, TSA callout rates for unscheduled absences averaged 6%, compared to about 2% before the shutdown, with nearly 10% or 2,700 officers calling in sick on one day.
Flyers face hourslong lines as TSA agents quit amid first missed paycheck — CNN
The number of air traffic controllers in the U.S. has declined by about 6% over the last decade, while air traffic has increased by 10%, contributing to ongoing staffing shortages.
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