Iran War Oil Shock Tests Trump Efforts to Curb U.S. Fuel Prices With SPR Release and Jones Act Waiver
President Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on March 11 to be delivered over about 120 days, but the International Energy Agency estimates Gulf producers have cut roughly 10 million barrels per day and about 20 million bpd normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, leading experts to say the SPR draw — historically limited to about 1 million bpd versus the administration’s 1.4 million bpd goal — is too small and too slow. The administration also issued a 60‑day Jones Act waiver to allow foreign ships to move fuel between U.S. ports, a step analysts estimate might shave only around 3 cents per gallon and is unlikely to bring U.S. gasoline back to about $3.50 per gallon in the near term.
📌 Key Facts
- President Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on March 11; the oil has begun to flow and is scheduled to be delivered over 120 days.
- The International Energy Agency estimates Gulf countries have cut oil production by about 10 million barrels per day since the start of the Iran war, and roughly 20 million barrels per day normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.
- Experts say the SPR draw is too small and too slow to offset the loss of supply: U.S. prior experience shows a maximum drawdown of about 1 million barrels per day versus the administration’s 1.4 million bpd goal, making the release insufficient relative to estimated cuts.
- Mr. Trump ordered a 60‑day waiver of the Jones Act to let foreign ships move fuel between U.S. ports; outside estimates say this could shave roughly 3 cents per gallon off gasoline—analysts call the measure ‘too little, too late.’
- Analysts argue that with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, these measures are unlikely to pull U.S. gasoline prices back to about $3.50 per gallon in the near term.
📊 Relevant Data
Black households in the US bear an additional $1.6 billion annually in energy expenditures compared to other households, even after controlling for socio-economic factors such as income and housing efficiency.
Racial disparities in the energy burden beyond socio-economic inequality — ScienceDirect
Black and Latino households pay 13–18% more on average for energy per square foot of housing compared to White households.
In 2025, US crude oil imports from Persian Gulf countries totaled approximately 490,000 barrels per day, accounting for under 10% of all US crude imports, marking one of the lowest dependencies since the 1970s.
Mideast Accounts For Lowest Share Of U.S. Oil Imports Since 1970s — Forbes
Iran's ethnic composition includes Persians at 61%, Azerbaijanis at 16%, Kurds at 10%, Lurs at 6%, Balochs at 2%, and other ethnicities at 5%, with minorities comprising about 39% of the population.
Iran Population 2026 — World Population Review
Low-income households in the US spent a higher share of their income on energy, with the lowest-income group (less than $30,000) allocating up to 8.6% of income to energy costs in 2025, compared to the national average of around 3-4%.
Why US Household Energy Bills Are Soaring — and How to Fix It — Earth Island Journal
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- President Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on March 11, with oil now beginning to flow and scheduled over 120 days.
- The International Energy Agency estimates Gulf countries have cut oil production by about 10 million barrels per day since the start of the Iran war, and about 20 million barrels per day normally move through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Experts say the SPR draw is too small and too slow relative to the loss of supply, with prior U.S. experience showing a maximum drawdown rate of about 1 million barrels per day, versus the administration’s 1.4 million bpd goal.
- Trump has ordered a 60‑day waiver of the Jones Act to allow foreign ships to move fuel between U.S. ports, with outside estimates that this might shave roughly 3 cents per gallon off gasoline prices—if anything—amounting to 'too little, too late' in analysts’ view.
- Analysts quoted argue that with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, these measures cannot realistically pull U.S. gasoline prices back to roughly $3.50 per gallon in the near term.