Trump Considers Winding Down Iran War While Leaving Strait of Hormuz Closed
President Trump has signaled on Truth Social that he is "considering winding down" U.S. military operations in the Iran war, saying his objectives are nearly met and arguing the Strait of Hormuz "will have to be guarded and policed" by other nations, even as officials say "a couple of weeks" of heavy strikes may continue. Meanwhile the Pentagon has intensified strikes and maritime operations — repurposed A‑10s, Apache helicopters, large bombs and attacks around Kharg Island, plus roughly 4,400 Marines and additional warships moving into the region and contingency planning for a Kharg seizure — while six Western allies issued a limited political statement of support but largely stopped short of committing ships or minesweepers, and analysts warn U.S. minesweeping shortfalls and some experts say ground forces would likely be needed to fully reopen the strait.
📌 Key Facts
- Six U.S. Western allies issued a March 19 joint statement condemning Iran’s “de facto closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and saying they are ready to contribute to preparatory planning to reopen it — but the statement stopped short of committing naval vessels or other resources; Japan joined at the last minute and the U.K. has sent officers to CENTCOM to begin coalition planning.
- Axios reported that U.K. and Dutch leaders pushed for the allied statement, persuading France to drop opposition to a political declaration while deferring decisions on practical steps; France, Germany, Italy and Japan had previously ruled out sending warships.
- U.S. and allied forces have launched a multistage campaign over the strait using low‑flying attack jets, repurposed A‑10s to hunt Iranian fast‑attack craft, and Apache helicopters (including by regional partners) to shoot down one‑way attack drones and strike Iranian naval targets; CENTCOM also disclosed 5,000‑pound penetrating bombs struck underground missile silos near the strait.
- CENTCOM and analysts say strikes have destroyed numerous Iranian mine‑laying vessels and naval‑mine storage bunkers (an estimate cited of about 16 vessels), but U.S. mine‑countermeasures capability has atrophied over decades and it remains unclear how many, if any, mines are currently in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The U.S. conducted massive airstrikes on Kharg Island that officials describe as both a warning shot and preparatory shaping for a possible ground operation; U.S. officials say most island defenses were destroyed while oil pipes were left intact, and the administration is weighing a plan of roughly a month of further strikes followed by seizing the island to gain leverage.
- Senior U.S. officials say three Marine units are already en route and more troops are being considered; multiple Marine Expeditionary Units and amphibious warships (including the USS Tripoli) are being diverted to the Middle East, putting several thousand Marines and additional warships into the theater.
- The U.S. quietly asked Sri Lanka for permission to keep arms‑loaded military aircraft on its territory before beginning airstrikes; Sri Lanka declined and is now hosting survivors from an Iranian warship the U.S. torpedoed off its coast.
- President Trump posted that he is “considering winding down” military efforts against Iran, asserting U.S. objectives are nearly met and saying the Strait of Hormuz “will have to be guarded and policed” by other nations; U.S. officials cautioned the post does not signal an imminent end and estimated at least a couple more weeks of hard, continuous strikes — while Trump has also publicly criticized allies (calling some NATO partners “cowards”) over reluctance to send ships and minesweepers.
📊 Relevant Data
In 2023, China was the largest importer of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 37.7 percent of its total crude oil imports via this route.
Top 5 countries reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for oil imports — BusinessDay
According to a 2023 study, increased oil price uncertainty raises unemployment rates in the U.S., with the effect being much larger for Black workers (an increase of up to 0.45 percentage points per standard deviation in uncertainty) compared to White workers (up to 0.15 percentage points).
Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty — Energy Economics (via RePEc)
In a March 2026 Quinnipiac poll, 85 percent of Republicans supported U.S. military action against Iran, compared to only 7 percent of Democrats, with independents opposing it 60-31 percent.
U.S. Military Action Against Iran: Over Half Of Voters Oppose It, 74 Percent Say Trump Shouldn't Have Started It — Quinnipiac University Poll
According to the 2023 U.S. State Department Report, Muslims constitute 99.4 percent of Iran's population, with 90-95 percent being Shia and 5-10 percent Sunni.
2023 Report on International Religious Freedom: Iran — U.S. Department of State
📰 Source Timeline (11)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
March 20, 2026
9:53 PM
Trump considers "winding down" Iran war without opening Hormuz Strait
New information:
- Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is 'getting very close' to meeting its objectives and is 'consider[ing] winding down' military efforts against Iran.
- In the post, Trump explicitly lists his claimed objectives — degrading Iran's missiles and industrial base, eliminating the Iranian navy and air force, preventing a nuclear weapon, and protecting U.S. allies — and asserts they are nearly met.
- Trump now says the Strait of Hormuz 'will have to be guarded and policed' by other nations that use it and that 'The United States does not' need to do so, signaling he may end the war without reopening the strait.
- A U.S. official tells Axios the post does not signal an imminent end to the war, estimating at least 'a couple of weeks' more of 'hard and continuously' conducted strikes.
- The article reports Trump is torn between concern over high oil prices and lack of allied help on Hormuz, and his reported enthusiasm for 'obliterating' Iranian capabilities, quoting him telling a confidant, 'We're hot! We're winning!'
- Axios adds that Trump recently called NATO partners 'cowards' and described NATO as 'a paper tiger' over their refusal to send ships and minesweepers to help reopen Hormuz.
5:48 PM
WATCH: Trump presents Commander-in-Chief's Trophy to Navy football team, says Hegseth and Caine are in the Situation Room
New information:
- At a March 20, 2026 White House ceremony presenting the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the Navy football team, President Trump referenced the ongoing Iran war and said, without detail, 'We’re doing extremely well.'
- Trump said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine were absent from the event because they were in the White House Situation Room.
- As the event occurred, a U.S. official told the Associated Press that the United States was deploying three more warships, consisting of roughly 2,500 additional Marines, to the Middle East as the Iran war continues.
5:02 PM
US Navy lags in minesweeping, despite years of warnings and big defense budgets
New information:
- Analysts and historical internal Navy critiques show U.S. mine countermeasures (MCM) capability has been allowed to atrophy for decades, with a 2025 Center for Maritime Strategy study calling the current state of American minesweeping 'grim.'
- Vice Adm. Stan Arthur and other officers have been warning since at least the early 1990s that mine warfare was being neglected, and the Navy’s dedicated Mine Warfare Command was dismantled in 2006, described as a 'critical institutional blow.'
- CENTCOM officials, aware of the gap, estimate they have destroyed 16 Iranian mine‑laying vessels and multiple naval‑mine storage bunkers in recent strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Despite Iranian threats to lay mines, U.S. officials and outside analysts say it is unclear how many, if any, mines are currently in the Strait, with some arguing Tehran would publicize mine‑laying on social media if it had already done so.
- The Navy once had robust dedicated MCM ships and helicopters during the Cold War, reflecting an institutional understanding that keeping sea lanes open was fundamental to every other mission, but that force structure has been substantially drawn down.
4:26 PM
Around 2,200 Marines, 3 warships headed to Middle East as Iran war continues
New information:
- A second Marine Expeditionary Unit of about 2,200 Marines and three warships has departed California and is headed toward the Middle East.
- The first Marine Expeditionary Unit, coming from the Pacific, is still en route to the region; together they will put two MEUs in theater once fully in place.
- The USS Tripoli, a modern 'big deck' amphibious assault ship optimized for F‑35s, Ospreys and other aircraft, is part of the first group.
- CBS notes an Amphibious Ready Group–MEU package was last used when the USS Iwo Jima took part in the operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and has also been used for drug interdiction and oil‑cargo interception in the Caribbean.
- The article updates the U.S. casualty toll in Operation Epic Fury to 13 service members killed and reiterates Trump’s public denial of plans for 'boots on the ground,' contrasted with the growing amphibious presence.
3:08 PM
Experts: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz may require U.S. ground troops
New information:
- Multiple military and maritime experts tell MS NOW that achieving minimal or zero attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would likely require U.S. ground troops to seize and hold stretches of Iranian coastline if air and naval strikes prove insufficient.
- Retired Army Gen. James A. “Spider” Marks says Marines currently en route to the region are a contingency force to create a ground “buffer zone” should airstrikes not adequately suppress Iran’s ability to fire on transiting traffic.
- Jonathan Schroden of the Center for Naval Analysis distinguishes between tolerating some continued attacks on shipping — potentially manageable with extended strikes and naval escorts — and a much more demanding standard of security that would probably require putting troops ashore.
- Maritime historian Sal Mercogliano says ship captains waiting to transit the strait have not been briefed on any clear U.S. military plan, and experts warn tanker insurance costs could spike so sharply that Washington might need to guarantee compensation for any wartime damage to entice owners to sail.
1:13 PM
U.S. Military Ramps Up to Clear Strait of Hormuz
New information:
- Gen. Dan Caine publicly confirmed that low‑flying A‑10 Warthog aircraft are now being used to 'hunt and kill' IRGC fast‑attack craft in the Strait of Hormuz, a repurposing of the platform from close air support to ship‑killing roles.
- Regional allies, not named in the piece, are using Apache helicopter gunships to target Iranian one‑way attack drones threatening Gulf states and energy infrastructure.
- CENTCOM disclosed that several 5,000‑pound penetrating bombs were dropped earlier in the week on underground missile silos near the strait as part of efforts to degrade Iran’s anti‑shipping capabilities.
- Roughly 2,200 Marines embarked on three U.S. warships have been pulled off an Indo‑Pacific patrol and are now steaming toward the Persian Gulf, where options include helping clear the strait or participating in a possible seizure of Kharg Island.
9:44 AM
Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait
New information:
- Four sources tell Axios the Trump administration is actively considering occupying or blockading Iran’s Kharg Island to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- A source familiar with White House thinking says the notional plan is roughly a month of additional strikes to weaken Iranian forces, then seize the island and use it as leverage in negotiations.
- Three different Marine units are already en route to the region, and the White House and Pentagon are considering sending more troops.
- A senior administration official says Trump is willing to take Kharg Island or launch a coastal invasion if needed, though no decision has been made.
- Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery warns that seizing Kharg could expose U.S. troops to high risk without guaranteeing Iranian concessions and suggests escorts through the strait after about two more weeks of strikes are more likely.
- The piece confirms last Friday’s massive airstrikes on dozens of targets on Kharg were both a warning shot and preparatory shaping for a possible ground operation, with officials saying they have destroyed most defenses but left oil pipes intact.
9:34 AM
U.S. Asked to Keep Military Planes in Sri Lanka Before Iran Airstrikes
New information:
- The U.S. quietly sought Sri Lanka’s permission to land and park two arms‑loaded military aircraft on its territory two days before beginning airstrikes on Iran.
- Sri Lanka declined the request while it was also considering and ultimately rejecting an Iranian request to dock three warships, emphasizing its neutral posture.
- Sri Lanka is now hosting survivors from an Iranian warship the U.S. torpedoed off its coast days after the war began, plus sailors from another Iranian vessel.
1:00 AM
U.S. War Planes and Helicopters Kick Off Battle to Reopen Hormuz
New information:
- U.S. and allied forces have begun using low‑flying attack jets over the Strait of Hormuz sea lanes to strike Iranian naval vessels.
- Apache helicopters are actively shooting down Iranian drones as part of the same operation.
- Pentagon officials describe this as a multistage plan to reduce threats from Iranian armed boats, mines and cruise missiles that have halted traffic through the strait since early March, with a goal of eventually sending U.S. warships through and escorting commercial vessels.
March 19, 2026
3:13 PM
Six U.S. allies back potential Strait of Hormuz coalition
New information:
- Six U.S. Western allies released a joint statement on March 19 expressing support for a potential coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but stopped short of committing naval vessels or other resources.
- The U.K. and NATO Secretary General Marc Rutte orchestrated the push for the statement, with Rutte and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer persuading French President Emmanuel Macron to drop his opposition to a political declaration while deferring decisions on practical steps.
- Japan joined the statement at the last minute ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s White House meeting with President Trump, and the U.K. has already sent officers to CENTCOM in Tampa to begin coalition planning.
- The joint statement condemns Iran’s ‘de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz’ and Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and infrastructure, and says the allies are ‘ready to contribute to appropriate efforts’ and start ‘preparatory planning.’
- France, Germany, Italy and Japan have all previously ruled out sending warships during the war, and it remains unclear whether signing the statement will change those positions.