Iran War Disrupts Fertilizer Supply, Driving Sharp Cost Spikes for U.S. Farmers
The war in Iran is disrupting fertilizer supply and driving sharp cost spikes and potential shortages for U.S. farmers — Tennessee grower Todd Littleton expects to pay roughly $100,000 more this season (about a 40% increase). Farm leaders warn that growers who didn’t preorder and prepay may not be able to obtain nitrogen at all as warehouses lack stockpiles, and CoBank economist Jacqui Fatka says prices wouldn’t drop quickly even if the conflict ends because of existing supply stresses from Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s phosphate export cuts.
📌 Key Facts
- U.S. fertilizer costs are spiking because of disruptions tied to the Iran war; Tennessee farmer Todd Littleton in Gibson County expects to pay about $100,000 more for fertilizer this season — roughly a 40% increase over last year — after several years of record losses.
- Farm supply stocks are tight: South Carolina Farm Bureau leader Harry Ott says warehouses do not have enough fertilizer stockpiled to meet demand in the coming months, calling the situation "really dire" for farmers.
- Farmers who did not preorder and prepay for fertilizer may face not just higher prices but the possibility of being unable to obtain needed nitrogen for spring planting, according to American Farm Bureau Federation president Zippy Duvall.
- CoBank farm‑supply economist Jacqui Fatka says even a quick end to the Iran war would not rapidly lower fertilizer prices, because supply was already stressed by Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s reductions in phosphate exports.
- Combined, the price spikes and limited availability threaten higher production costs and potential shortages of key nutrients for spring planting, increasing financial pressure on already hard‑hit U.S. farmers.
📊 Relevant Data
Hispanic workers comprise approximately 63% of hired farmworkers in the US (55% of Mexican origin and 8% other Hispanic), compared to about 19% of the national workforce and population.
Farm Labor | Economic Research Service - USDA — USDA Economic Research Service
The 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act shifted US immigration patterns by abolishing national origin quotas, leading to increased immigration from Latin America and Asia, which has contributed to the high proportion of Hispanic workers in agriculture as immigrants filled farm labor shortages.
Fifty Years On, the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act Continues to Reshape the United States — Migration Policy Institute
In 2024, food insecurity affected 24.4% of Black households and 20.2% of Latinx households in the US, more than double the rate for White households, with these disparities consistent with lower average incomes among Black and Latinx groups.
Household Food Security in the United States in 2024 — USDA Economic Research Service
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Profiles Tennessee farmer Todd Littleton in Gibson County, who expects to pay $100,000 more for fertilizer this season, a 40% increase over last year, after several years of record losses.
- American Farm Bureau Federation president Zippy Duvall warns that farmers who did not preorder and prepay for fertilizer may not be able to obtain nitrogen at all for spring planting, not just at higher prices.
- South Carolina Farm Bureau leader Harry Ott says warehouses do not have enough fertilizer stockpiled to meet demand in the coming months, calling the situation "really dire" for farmers.
- CoBank farm‑supply economist Jacqui Fatka explains that even a quick end to the Iran war would not quickly lower fertilizer prices because existing supply stresses from Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s phosphate export cuts were already in place.