IAEA Chief and Analysts Warn Deep 'Pickaxe Mountain' Site Leaves Iran Nuclear Program Largely Intact Despite U.S.–Israeli Strikes
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi and outside analysts warn that U.S.–Israeli strikes have so far failed to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, with IAEA data indicating roughly 441 kg of uranium enriched to 60% (mid‑2025) and most material and enrichment capacity believed to remain at Isfahan and Natanz, much of it stored in deep or relatively mobile containers that are difficult to locate or destroy. Open‑source assessments say a fortified underground site dubbed Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz may be buried as deep as ~100 meters in granite—prompting public calls to “neutralize” it—while CENTCOM reports more than 7,800 targets struck since Operation Epic Fury began and U.S. leaders cite preventing an Iranian bomb as a stated war aim.
📌 Key Facts
- IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned the Iran nuclear issue cannot be resolved militarily: even after current U.S. and Israeli strikes “the material will still be there, the enrichment capacities will be there,” and the world will need to return to negotiation.
- The IAEA assesses Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely where it was before the strikes, with most material believed at the Isfahan complex and smaller amounts at Natanz.
- As of mid‑2025 Iran held roughly 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%—enough, if further enriched, to fuel multiple nuclear weapons—and analysts say much of this material is stored deep underground in relatively mobile containers that are difficult to destroy or secure by airstrike.
- Nonproliferation experts, including Kelsey Davenport, warn it is unclear whether the United States knows the full location of Iran’s enriched uranium because storage containers are mobile and material could have been moved or dispersed.
- Open‑source assessments and the Institute for Science and International Security’s satellite analysis indicate the Pickaxe Mountain underground facility near Natanz is buried as deep as roughly 100 meters in granite and has recent construction to reinforce tunnel portals against airstrikes, with rock and soil pushed back and concrete‑reinforced tunnel headworks visible in imagery.
- CENTCOM says U.S. and Israeli forces have struck more than 7,800 targets in Iran since Operation Epic Fury began in late February (conflict at Day 18 in the latest reporting).
- Some analysts and officials, notably Andrea Stricker, argue U.S. and Israeli forces must “neutralize Pickaxe Mountain” and recover or eliminate Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks before ending major combat operations; President Trump has made preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon a stated war aim and says Iran is still pursuing a bomb despite strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
📊 Relevant Data
Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 according to U.S. assessments, began breaching JCPOA enrichment limits in 2019, started producing 20% enriched uranium in January 2021 and 60% in April 2021, and by May 2025 had accumulated over 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60% as reported by the IAEA.
Fact Sheet: The Iran Deal, Then and Now — Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
In the U.S. Air Force, Black personnel comprise approximately 15.4% of active-duty members as of 2023, compared to 13.6% of the U.S. population, indicating a slight overrepresentation, while Hispanic personnel make up 17% versus 19% in the population, showing slight underrepresentation.
Study: Eligibility rules hamper minority representation in Air Force — Air Force Times
Iran's population is 90-95% Shia Muslim and 5-10% Sunni Muslim according to government estimates, with U.S. reports confirming similar figures as of 2023.
2023 Report on International Religious Freedom: Iran — U.S. Department of State
📰 Source Timeline (3)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- New open‑source assessments say Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain underground facility near Natanz is buried as deep as roughly 100 meters beneath granite, with recent construction to reinforce tunnel portals against airstrikes.
- The Institute for Science and International Security’s mid‑February satellite imagery analysis shows specific reinforcement steps at Pickaxe Mountain, including rock and soil pushed back and leveled over an extended, concrete‑reinforced tunnel headworks.
- CENTCOM’s latest figures say U.S. and Israeli forces have struck more than 7,800 targets in Iran since Operation Epic Fury began in late February, as the conflict reaches Day 18.
- Nonproliferation analyst Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies publicly argues that U.S. and Israeli forces must 'neutralize Pickaxe Mountain' and 'recover or eliminate' Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks before ending major combat operations.
- The piece reiterates that President Trump has made preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon a stated war aim and has publicly claimed Iran is still pursuing a bomb even after strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
- Rafael Grossi told reporters he does not believe Iran’s nuclear program can be ‘resolved militarily,’ saying that even after current U.S. and Israeli strikes ‘the material will still be there, the enrichment capacities will be there’ and that the world ‘will have to go back to some form of negotiation.’
- Grossi said the IAEA’s assessment is that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely where it was prior to the strikes, with most material believed to be at the Isfahan nuclear complex and smaller amounts at Natanz.
- The article reiterates IAEA data that Iran possessed roughly 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% as of mid‑2025 — enough, if further enriched, to fuel multiple nuclear weapons — and notes analysts’ view that much of this material is stored deep underground in relatively mobile containers that are difficult to destroy or secure via airstrikes.
- Nonproliferation expert Kelsey Davenport is quoted saying it is not even clear the United States knows where all of Iran’s enriched uranium is, given the mobility of storage containers and the possibility some material could be moved or dispersed.