IAEA Chief and Analysts Warn Deep 'Pickaxe Mountain' Site Leaves Iran Nuclear Program Largely Intact Despite U.S.–Israeli Strikes
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that even after extensive U.S.–Israeli strikes, Iran’s enriched‑uranium stocks and enrichment capacity largely remain intact — with most material believed at Isfahan and smaller amounts at Natanz, roughly 441 kg enriched to 60% as of mid‑2025 — and that Iran retains the capabilities, knowledge and industrial ability to rebuild its program. Open‑source imagery and analysts say the Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz is reinforced and buried as deep as ~100 meters and that much nuclear material may be stored in relatively mobile containers that are hard to locate or destroy, prompting calls to “neutralize” the facility even as CENTCOM reports more than 7,800 targets struck.
📌 Key Facts
- IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned the Iran nuclear program cannot be 'resolved militarily,' saying 'a lot still has survived,' that Iran retains 'capabilities, knowledge, and industrial ability' to reconstitute its program, and that 'the material will still be there, the enrichment capacities will be there' so the world 'will have to go back to some form of negotiation.'
- The IAEA assesses Iran’s enriched‑uranium stockpile remains largely where it was before the strikes, with most material believed to be at the Isfahan nuclear complex and smaller amounts at Natanz.
- As of mid‑2025 Iran had roughly 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% — enough, if further enriched, to fuel multiple nuclear weapons — and analysts say much of this material is stored deep underground in relatively mobile containers that are difficult to destroy or fully account for.
- Open‑source and Institute for Science and International Security satellite analysis indicates the Pickaxe Mountain underground facility near Natanz is buried as deep as roughly 100 meters in granite and has recent reinforcements (including concrete‑reinforced tunnel headworks) to harden tunnel portals against airstrikes.
- CENTCOM reports U.S. and Israeli forces have struck more than 7,800 targets in Iran since Operation Epic Fury began in late February (conflict Day 18).
- Some nonproliferation analysts, including Andrea Stricker, argue U.S. and Israeli forces must 'neutralize Pickaxe Mountain' and 'recover or eliminate' Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks before major combat operations conclude.
- Reporting highlights a televised, on‑the‑record rift between the IAEA’s public characterization and the U.S. intelligence/administration narrative used to justify the war (including DNI testimony that Iran’s program was 'obliterated'), alongside President Trump’s stated war aim of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
📊 Relevant Data
AIPAC planned to spend $100 million on the 2024 US elections through its United Democracy Project and AIPAC PAC, influencing congressional races on foreign policy issues including support for Israel and opposition to diplomacy with Iran.
How Does AIPAC Shape Washington? We Tracked Every Dollar. — The Intercept
In a March 2026 YouGov poll, approval for US military action in Iran showed a partisan divide: 77% of Republicans approved (49% strongly, 28% somewhat), compared to 26% of Independents (14% strongly, 12% somewhat) and 8% of Democrats (2% strongly, 6% somewhat).
US Jewish groups increased lobbying spending in 2025, with groups like the Republican Jewish Coalition expanding government affairs departments, contributing to heightened influence on US foreign policy amid the 2026 Iran conflict.
US Jewish groups spent a lot more on lobbying in 2025 than in prior years — JNS.org
📰 Source Timeline (4)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, in a CBS 'Face the Nation' interview, explicitly responded to DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s Senate testimony that Iran’s enrichment program was 'obliterated' and said 'a lot still has survived.'
- Grossi specified that Iran retains 'capabilities,' 'knowledge,' and 'industrial ability' to reconstitute its nuclear program despite the strikes.
- The segment highlights an on‑the‑record, televised rift between the IAEA’s public characterization and the U.S. intelligence community’s line being used to justify current war policy.
- New open‑source assessments say Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain underground facility near Natanz is buried as deep as roughly 100 meters beneath granite, with recent construction to reinforce tunnel portals against airstrikes.
- The Institute for Science and International Security’s mid‑February satellite imagery analysis shows specific reinforcement steps at Pickaxe Mountain, including rock and soil pushed back and leveled over an extended, concrete‑reinforced tunnel headworks.
- CENTCOM’s latest figures say U.S. and Israeli forces have struck more than 7,800 targets in Iran since Operation Epic Fury began in late February, as the conflict reaches Day 18.
- Nonproliferation analyst Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies publicly argues that U.S. and Israeli forces must 'neutralize Pickaxe Mountain' and 'recover or eliminate' Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks before ending major combat operations.
- The piece reiterates that President Trump has made preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon a stated war aim and has publicly claimed Iran is still pursuing a bomb even after strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
- Rafael Grossi told reporters he does not believe Iran’s nuclear program can be ‘resolved militarily,’ saying that even after current U.S. and Israeli strikes ‘the material will still be there, the enrichment capacities will be there’ and that the world ‘will have to go back to some form of negotiation.’
- Grossi said the IAEA’s assessment is that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely where it was prior to the strikes, with most material believed to be at the Isfahan nuclear complex and smaller amounts at Natanz.
- The article reiterates IAEA data that Iran possessed roughly 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% as of mid‑2025 — enough, if further enriched, to fuel multiple nuclear weapons — and notes analysts’ view that much of this material is stored deep underground in relatively mobile containers that are difficult to destroy or secure via airstrikes.
- Nonproliferation expert Kelsey Davenport is quoted saying it is not even clear the United States knows where all of Iran’s enriched uranium is, given the mobility of storage containers and the possibility some material could be moved or dispersed.