IAEA Chief Tells CBS Iran Can Rebuild Enrichment and Warns Seizing 60% Uranium Would Be 'Very Challenging' Despite U.S.–Israeli Strikes
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told CBS that last June’s U.S.–Israeli strikes “rolled back the program considerably” but that Iran still retains the capabilities, knowledge and industrial capacity to rebuild enrichment, and that roughly 972 pounds (about 441 kg) of uranium enriched to 60% remains largely where it was — much of it believed to be at Isfahan and Natanz, buried under rubble, in mobile containers or in deep underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain. He warned recovering or seizing that highly enriched 60% uranium (in UF6 cylinders) would be “very challenging” though not impossible, saying military action alone cannot resolve the issue and noting previous indirect talks considered downblending as a safer alternative.
📌 Key Facts
- IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said military action cannot 'resolve' Iran’s nuclear program: U.S.–Israeli strikes have 'really rolled back the program considerably' but 'a lot still has survived,' and the world will have to return to some form of negotiation.
- Grossi stressed Iran retains the 'capabilities,' 'knowledge' and 'industrial ability' to rebuild enrichment; the IAEA has not seen signs Iran has attempted to rebuild since the June strikes, but reconstruction would be 'very possible.'
- The IAEA’s assessment is that Iran’s enriched‑uranium stockpile remains largely where it was before the strikes—primarily at Isfahan with smaller amounts at Natanz—and much of the pre‑war estimate (~441 kg / ~972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% likely still exists in damaged sites or storage.
- Much of the 60%‑enriched material is believed to be hard to destroy or secure: analysts say some is stored in relatively mobile containers, may be buried under rubble in damaged facilities, or stored deep underground, making it difficult to locate or target by airstrike.
- Grossi warned any U.S. military operation to recover 60% enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF6) cylinders would be 'very challenging' though not impossible; prior indirect U.S.–Iran talks considered 'downblending' the stockpile as a way to make it safer to manage.
- Open‑source analyses and experts highlight heavily hardened underground facilities (notably 'Pickaxe Mountain' near Natanz, reported to be buried roughly 100 meters in granite with reinforced tunnel portals), prompting calls from some analysts to 'neutralize' or recover stocks before ending major combat operations.
- The U.S. and Israeli strikes—part of Operation Epic Fury—have hit thousands of targets (CENTCOM reported more than 7,800 strikes), and U.S. leaders have framed preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon as a stated war aim; nevertheless, IAEA and nonproliferation experts (e.g., Kelsey Davenport) say it is unclear if all enriched material locations are known, underscoring a public divergence between IAEA assessments and some U.S. intelligence/war policy claims.
📊 Relevant Data
Iran's population is composed of approximately 61% Persians and 39% ethnic minorities, including Azerbaijanis (16%) and Kurds (10%), with ethnic minorities disproportionately impacted by government crackdowns and playing key roles in ongoing uprisings that could influence internal stability and nuclear program rebuilding efforts.
A simple visual guide to Iran and its people — Al Jazeera
Ethnic and religious minorities in Iran have been disproportionately affected by the ongoing crackdown following protests, with higher and longer participation in movements into 2023, potentially linking to uprising strategies that intersect with nuclear disputes and program stability.
Minorities in Iran have been disproportionally impacted in ongoing crackdown — OHCHR
In the US Air Force, 82.1% of pilots are White, followed by 6.8% Hispanic or Latino, representing a racial skew compared to the broader active-duty airmen demographics where Whites make up about 71%.
Air force pilot demographics and statistics in the US — Zippia
US allies in Asia, such as South Korea and Japan, rely on the Middle East for approximately 60% of their crude oil imports, with regional flows through the Strait of Hormuz accounting for a significant portion, tying to economic self-interest in coalition dynamics amid the Iran conflict.
US is quickly exhausting tools to absorb Iran war oil shock — Reuters
In 2025, 17% of China's oil imports came from Iran, highlighting dependencies that could affect ally hesitance in U.S.-led actions against Iran's nuclear program.
Global Oil Market Implications of U.S.-Israel Attack on Iran — American Action Forum
📰 Source Timeline (5)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Grossi tells CBS that last June’s U.S. bombing of Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan was 'quite effective' and has 'really rolled back the program considerably,' but that 'a lot still has survived' and Iran retains the 'capabilities,' 'knowledge' and 'industrial ability' to rebuild enrichment.
- He says the IAEA has not seen signs that Iran has tried to rebuild enrichment facilities since the June strikes, echoing DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s testimony, but stresses that 'you cannot unlearn what you've learned' and reconstruction would be 'very possible.'
- Grossi confirms the pre‑war IAEA estimate that Iran had enriched about 972 pounds of uranium to 60% and notes much of that material is likely still buried under rubble in damaged facilities.
- He calls any U.S. military operation to recover that highly contaminated 60% uranium hexafluoride gas 'very challenging,' though not impossible, given the difficulty of handling cylinders of that material.
- He discloses that indirect U.S.–Iran talks before the war explored 'downblending' Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile as a way to make it safer to manage.
- IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, in a CBS 'Face the Nation' interview, explicitly responded to DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s Senate testimony that Iran’s enrichment program was 'obliterated' and said 'a lot still has survived.'
- Grossi specified that Iran retains 'capabilities,' 'knowledge,' and 'industrial ability' to reconstitute its nuclear program despite the strikes.
- The segment highlights an on‑the‑record, televised rift between the IAEA’s public characterization and the U.S. intelligence community’s line being used to justify current war policy.
- New open‑source assessments say Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain underground facility near Natanz is buried as deep as roughly 100 meters beneath granite, with recent construction to reinforce tunnel portals against airstrikes.
- The Institute for Science and International Security’s mid‑February satellite imagery analysis shows specific reinforcement steps at Pickaxe Mountain, including rock and soil pushed back and leveled over an extended, concrete‑reinforced tunnel headworks.
- CENTCOM’s latest figures say U.S. and Israeli forces have struck more than 7,800 targets in Iran since Operation Epic Fury began in late February, as the conflict reaches Day 18.
- Nonproliferation analyst Andrea Stricker of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies publicly argues that U.S. and Israeli forces must 'neutralize Pickaxe Mountain' and 'recover or eliminate' Iran’s highly enriched uranium stocks before ending major combat operations.
- The piece reiterates that President Trump has made preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon a stated war aim and has publicly claimed Iran is still pursuing a bomb even after strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
- Rafael Grossi told reporters he does not believe Iran’s nuclear program can be ‘resolved militarily,’ saying that even after current U.S. and Israeli strikes ‘the material will still be there, the enrichment capacities will be there’ and that the world ‘will have to go back to some form of negotiation.’
- Grossi said the IAEA’s assessment is that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains largely where it was prior to the strikes, with most material believed to be at the Isfahan nuclear complex and smaller amounts at Natanz.
- The article reiterates IAEA data that Iran possessed roughly 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% as of mid‑2025 — enough, if further enriched, to fuel multiple nuclear weapons — and notes analysts’ view that much of this material is stored deep underground in relatively mobile containers that are difficult to destroy or secure via airstrikes.
- Nonproliferation expert Kelsey Davenport is quoted saying it is not even clear the United States knows where all of Iran’s enriched uranium is, given the mobility of storage containers and the possibility some material could be moved or dispersed.