Intelligence Chiefs Tell Congress Iran Has Not Rebuilt Enrichment, But IAEA Says Nuclear Capabilities Remain as Trump Weighs Operation to Seize Missing Material
DNI Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that last summer’s strikes “obliterated” Iran’s enrichment program and U.S. intelligence assesses Tehran has not rebuilt that capability since June 2025, but IAEA Director Rafael Grossi warned the agency cannot account for roughly 400 kg of highly enriched uranium and that Iran still retains the technical knowledge and industrial capacity to resume significant nuclear activity. President Trump, who has ordered strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island targeting military sites while publicly sparing oil infrastructure, is privately weighing — and has not decided on — a high‑risk operation to seize the missing nuclear material, a step officials say would carry major escalation and regional energy‑market risks.
📌 Key Facts
- U.S. forces conducted strikes on Kharg Island (Operation Epic Fury), hitting more than 90 military targets — including naval mine and missile storage, air-defense sites, a naval base and an airport control tower — and U.S. officials say oil export infrastructure on the island was deliberately spared.
- President Trump publicly framed the Kharg strikes as having “totally obliterated” military targets, repeatedly threatened to strike or “knock out” Kharg’s oil infrastructure (and even discussed seizing the island as an “economic knockout”), urged allied warship deployments to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and warned he could escalate further if shipping is not restored.
- The U.S. is reinforcing its regional posture: roughly 2,500–5,000 additional Marines (including elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard USS Tripoli) and other ships have been ordered toward the Arabian Sea; more than 50,000 U.S. troops were already in the region, and CENTCOM says some legacy mine‑countermeasure ships were removed in favor of Littoral Combat Ships with MCM packages.
- Iran has effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — reportedly using sea mines and small‑boat tactics — and the IRGC has declared control of the strait and threatened retaliation against oil, energy and economic infrastructure tied to U.S. interests; Iranian officials have also signaled continued pressure on global oil flows and said they are receiving unspecified military cooperation from Russia and China.
- Israel struck natural‑gas facilities in the South Pars/Bushehr area — reportedly coordinated with and approved by the U.S. — marking an escalation against Iran’s energy infrastructure; markets reacted with sharp oil and gas price spikes, and analysts warn further damage to Iranian oil or gas facilities would significantly worsen global energy-market disruption.
- On Iran’s nuclear material: the IAEA says it cannot account for about 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium after last summer’s strikes and warns Iran still retains nuclear capabilities, knowledge and industrial capacity; by contrast, DNI Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that strikes "obliterated" Iran’s enrichment program and that Iran has made no effort since June 2025 to rebuild it, a direct contrast to the IAEA’s assessment.
- Washington is privately and publicly debating a high‑risk ground operation to seize missing Iranian nuclear material; Trump remains undecided, U.S. officials warn such a mission would require on‑the‑ground time (satellite imagery shows tunnel entrances covered at some sites), carry major escalation risks, and would be complicated by uncertain Iranian leadership and ongoing regional fighting — all amid rising humanitarian tolls and U.S. military casualties (including a KC‑135 crash that killed six crew and reporting of U.S. combat deaths).
📊 Relevant Data
The IAEA estimates that Iran had 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to up to 60% before the 2025 attacks, with about 400 kilograms now unaccounted for, which could be enough material for up to 10 nuclear weapons if enriched further to weapons-grade levels.
Iran's Enriched Uranium Unaccounted, Enough for 10 Weapons — Chosun English
Iran has stored much of its highly enriched uranium in an underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan facility, and the IAEA has been denied access to verify its status since the June 2025 attacks.
IAEA urges Iran to allow inspections, points at Isfahan — Al Jazeera
Pro-Israel lobbying groups have spent approximately $3.8 million annually on influencing US policy toward Israel, contributing to advocacy for military actions against Iran.
Does Israel control the USA? – Iran War Briefing #8 — Counterfire
Conflicts involving Iran have led to oil price surges above $100 per barrel, exacerbating energy affordability issues in the US, where Black and Hispanic households already face 43% and 20% higher energy burdens respectively compared to White households.
How the Middle East Conflict is Disrupting Energy Markets and Investor Outlook — HBKS Wealth Advisors
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
"The opinion piece criticizes the Trump administration’s conduct and rhetoric in the Iran war—as exemplified by recent U.S. strikes and threats such as the Kharg Island bombing—arguing they risk normalizing attacks on civilian infrastructure, eroding international law, and turning the U.S. into the kind of rogue actor it would otherwise condemn."
📰 Source Timeline (24)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Rafael Grossi publicly stated on CBS that 'a lot' of Iran’s nuclear capabilities 'still has survived' despite U.S.–Israeli strikes.
- He emphasized that Iran retains the 'capabilities,' 'knowledge,' and 'industrial ability' to resume significant nuclear activity.
- His comments were framed directly against DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s Senate claim that Iran’s enrichment program was 'obliterated.'
- DNI Gabbard’s written testimony states that Iran’s enrichment program was 'obliterated' in last year’s strikes on three facilities and that Iran has made no effort since June 2025 to rebuild that capability.
- Although Gabbard skipped this language in her oral opening, she later confirmed under questioning that it accurately reflects the current intelligence assessment.
- CBS specifies, via its sources, that Trump remains undecided on sending American forces into Iran to seize the missing nuclear material, framing it as 'a very dangerous operation,' and reiterates that the Pentagon has provided multiple options.
- The piece directly connects these deliberations to the IAEA’s inability to account for about 400 kg of highly enriched uranium after last summer’s strikes.
- Beyond privately weighing an operation to seize Iranian nuclear material, Trump is now publicly threatening to 'massively blow up' the entire South Pars gas field if Iran again targets Qatari energy infrastructure, explicitly tying U.S. escalation threats to Qatari sites.
- The CBS report notes that Trump appears publicly angered by the Israeli strike on South Pars, even as he issues his own, more sweeping threat against the same facility, underlining a disconnect between his rhetoric about Israeli actions and his own posture.
- Markets are reacting to these threats and the South Pars strike with sharp moves in crude and gas prices and global equities, suggesting that Trump’s stated willingness to raze a key gas field is now a material factor in global risk pricing.
- Trump has not yet decided whether to send U.S. forces into Iran to seize the country’s nuclear material, a high‑risk operation he is actively discussing in private, according to sources familiar with the deliberations.
- After last summer’s U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, the IAEA says it cannot account for an estimated 400 kilograms of Iran’s highly enriched uranium that existed before the attacks.
- IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi publicly warned that Iran’s nuclear program is too large and dispersed to be destroyed militarily and stressed the need for post‑war diplomatic negotiations.
- Trump believes Iran’s conventional military assets are heavily degraded but is specifically worried about small‑team mine‑laying operations in the Strait of Hormuz that could disrupt oil shipping.
- U.S. officials admit they do not clearly know who currently holds primary leadership roles in Iran, with Trump privately describing the situation as essentially ‘rogue.’
- Satellite imagery cited by nuclear expert David Albright suggests Iran has covered tunnel entrances at one nuclear site with dirt, implying any operation to reach the uranium would require more time on the ground.
- The U.S. Navy confirms it has removed four legacy mine-countermeasure ships from the Middle East and is relying on Littoral Combat Ships with mine-countermeasures packages, with no plans to recommission the older vessels.
- Israeli Air Force strikes hit a natural-gas processing facility in southwestern Iran, described as the first attack Israel has carried out on Iran’s natural gas facilities.
- Risk analyst Torbjorn Soltvedt is quoted saying these strikes against "the heart of Iran's natural gas infrastructure" are a step up from prior operations that largely spared Iran’s oil and gas sector and are "the opposite" of a de-escalation signal.
- The Axios piece directly links this escalation to same-day oil-market moves, with Brent crude rising more than $5 to about $109 per barrel.
- Israeli Air Force has struck a natural gas processing facility in southwestern Iran, in or near the South Pars gas field by Bushehr.
- Two senior Israeli officials say the strike was coordinated with and explicitly approved by the Trump administration, marking a policy shift after earlier U.S. objections to hitting Iranian energy infrastructure.
- Semi‑official Iranian outlet Tasnim News Agency reports multiple South Pars facilities were targeted, with emergency teams on site trying to extinguish resulting fires.
- President Trump posted on Truth Social soon after the strike, calling critics ‘absolute fools,’ labeling Iran the ‘NUMBER ONE STATE SPONSOR OF TERROR’ and claiming the U.S. is ‘rapidly putting them out of business,’ signaling White House endorsement of attacks on Iran’s economic lifelines.
- The article reiterates that the Strait of Hormuz is "all but closed" because of Iranian attacks and that Trump is again publicly pressing NATO allies to help reopen it, while they continue to rebuff him.
- It notes Trump told reporters he is "not afraid" to put U.S. troops on the ground in Iran, tying that threat more directly to the Hormuz fight and to potential missions against Kharg Island and Iran’s nuclear material.
- The live blog links his thinking on Kharg Island and nuclear fuel to a broader narrative that Trump has repeatedly said the U.S. should pursue oil assets when it goes to war, highlighting the risk that hitting oil infrastructure would push energy prices even higher.
- Confirms Trump told reporters on Air Force One that U.S. forces are "locked and loaded" and could hit Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure on "five minutes' notice," saying he personally chose not to do so—"we'll see what happens"—underscoring an ongoing threat rather than a one‑off remark.
- Details Kharg Island’s role: a loading capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, with roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports passing through it, most bound for China and India.
- Provides concrete, current U.S. fuel-price data: as of March 16, AAA puts national average regular gasoline at $3.70/gal (up $0.77 in a month) and diesel at $4.97/gal (up $1.31 in a month), with lowest prices in Kansas, North Dakota and Oklahoma (~$3.08–$3.14) and highest in California, Hawaii and Washington.
- Cites GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan estimating Americans are spending $275 million more per day on gasoline than before the U.S. attacked Iran, totaling nearly $2.5 billion in extra spending since the strikes began.
- Notes the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index climbed to $3.88/gal by Friday after sitting mostly in the low‑to‑mid $2 range, signaling a significant cost increase for airlines and air travel driven by the Iran conflict and fears of further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Confirms that roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports move through Kharg Island, with 1.55 million bpd of a 1.7 million bpd total shipped via Kharg so far this year (Reuters/Kpler data).
- Reports that Trump told reporters he could carry out additional strikes on Kharg Island 'on five minutes notice' and that the U.S. 'may hit' the island 'a few more times just for fun.'
- Reveals, via a U.S. official, that Trump is drawn to the idea of seizing Kharg Island outright as an 'economic knockout of the regime' that would effectively defund Tehran, while acknowledging it could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil facilities and pipelines, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
- Notes that Iran is reportedly blocking most Gulf oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz while allowing tankers carrying Iranian crude to pass, and that Tehran is considering letting some tankers through if the oil is traded in Chinese yuan.
- Highlights that Trump’s advisers themselves acknowledge that directly compromising Kharg’s oil infrastructure would further damage the already strained global energy market.
- In a brief Monday morning phone call with PBS NewsHour, Trump said Kharg Island is now 'out of commission' except for the oil pipes and repeated that he would 'knock the hell out of it' if Iran does not cooperate.
- Trump stated that the U.S. has not yet hit electric plants in Tehran and said he could knock them out but is 'trying to hold off on that kind of thing right now' because it would cause 'years of rebuilding and also trauma.'
- On gasoline and oil prices, Trump told PBS that current higher prices are a 'very small price to pay' for more than four decades of 'terror from the regime' and predicted prices would 'drop like a rock' once the war is over.
- When asked about putting U.S. troops on the ground, Trump refused to discuss his thinking, saying only, 'I just don't want to talk strategy with a reporter.'
- Trump, in a three‑minute impromptu phone call with PBS, says regarding Kharg Island, 'I told them openly — I'll knock the hell out of it,' directly tying any future strike to Iran’s behavior on oil and shipping.
- He asserts that after last week’s U.S. attack on Kharg, the island is 'out of commission except for the pipes' and that he intentionally avoided striking oil infrastructure by '100 yards' to preserve facilities that took 'years of work' to build.
- Trump broadens his description of restraint, saying he has 'left a lot of infrastructure' in Tehran as well, and that he could 'knock out the electric plants in one hour' but is trying to avoid that because of the long‑term rebuilding and 'trauma.'
- He tells PBS he will not say whether he foresees U.S. ground troops in Iran and refuses to give a concrete end date for the war, walking back his earlier prediction that it would last 'four to five weeks' by saying he does not want to be 'two days late' and criticized.
- The article cites a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll showing a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Iran war and oppose U.S. military action there, even as gas prices soar and Trump insists oil prices will 'drop like a rock' once the war ends.
- Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the U.S. is ‘locked and loaded’ to destroy Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub and could do so ‘on five minutes’ notice’ but has chosen not to so far.
- He characterized Kharg as Iran’s ‘crown jewel’ and said earlier U.S. strikes deliberately left only the section handling oil pipelines intact.
- Trump framed the threat as leverage to pressure Tehran into negotiations, claiming Iran wants to ‘negotiate badly’ but is not yet ready to make required concessions.
- CENTCOM is quoted specifying that Friday’s Operation Epic Fury strikes hit more than 90 military targets on Kharg, including naval mine storage facilities and missile bunkers, while leaving oil infrastructure untouched.
- Axios sourcing, cited in the piece, notes Trump has discussed the option of seizing Kharg Island outright, with one U.S. official saying that would be an ‘economic knockout of the regime,’ while acknowledging it would likely require U.S. troops on the island and carry major escalation risks.
- AP reports a U.S. strike on Kharg Island on Friday that destroyed military sites but left oil infrastructure intact, with President Trump warning he may reconsider sparing the oil facilities if Iran or others interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The piece quantifies that Iran has exported 13.7 million barrels of oil since the war began, with multiple tankers recently seen loading at Kharg, according to TankerTrackers.com.
- Energy researcher Petras Katinas of the Royal United Services Institute is quoted saying Kharg is "the main node" of Iran’s economy and that loss of the island would make it difficult for any Iranian regime to function, giving the U.S. major leverage in negotiations.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claims the U.S. struck a desalination plant on Qeshm Island on March 8 that supplies water to about 30 villages, calling attacks on infrastructure a "dangerous move with grave consequences"; Washington has not acknowledged this.
- Bahrain’s Interior Ministry says an Iranian drone strike caused material damage to a Bahraini desalination plant the next day, though water supplies were not disrupted.
- The article revisits the long‑running territorial dispute over Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands, noting Iran’s military garrisons there and framing them as persistent Gulf flashpoints.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly vows Iran will retaliate for any U.S. attack on Iranian oil or energy infrastructure by striking 'any energy infrastructure in the region' in which an American company owns assets or shares.
- Araghchi says Iran has 'no intention' of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, directly signaling continued pressure on global oil flows despite the Kharg Island strikes.
- He explicitly claims Iran is receiving 'military cooperation' from Russia and China and calls them 'strategic partners,' while declining to specify the nature of that cooperation.
- Araghchi accuses the United Arab Emirates of allowing U.S. forces to launch attacks on Iran from densely populated areas such as Dubai and Ras Al‑Khaimah, a charge Gulf governments deny.
- He dismisses U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s claim that new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded and 'disfigured,' insisting 'there is no problem with the new supreme leader' and that 'everything is under control.'
- Retired CENTCOM communications director Col. Joe Buccino says Iran is using World War I‑style sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, stockpiled 'by the thousands,' to effectively halt shipping and wage psychological warfare.
- Buccino warns the U.S. Navy has 'decommissioned' most of its dedicated mine‑clearing ships, creating what he calls a gap Iran is now exploiting.
- Buccino states that uncertainty about the number and location of mines is itself a key part of Iran’s strategy, shutting down the flow through Hormuz even without confirmed strikes on tankers.
- Trump reiterates that the U.S. would be willing to escort vessels through the strait 'if we needed to,' linking that prospect to the current mine threat.
- The piece reiterates that Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the war ends and demanded removal of U.S. bases from the region.
- CBS details that Kharg Island historically handles roughly 85–95% of Iran’s crude exports, making it the core of Iran’s oil export system.
- The article quotes Trump saying the U.S. "totally obliterated" every military target on Kharg while deliberately avoiding oil export infrastructure, and warning he will "reconsider" sparing those facilities if Iran continues to block free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
- National security analyst Aaron MacLean tells CBS that Trump has "linked the vulnerability of Kharg Island to Iran's continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz," framing the strike as leverage rather than immediate economic escalation.
- Background context is provided on past attacks on Kharg during the Iran‑Iraq War and Iran’s subsequent fortification of the island with air defenses, hardened infrastructure and underground storage.
- The piece underscores that the 172‑million‑barrel U.S. SPR release has not calmed markets, with crude above $100, tying the Kharg strike more explicitly to current oil‑market anxiety.
- Trump publicly urged countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and others to send warships to the Middle East to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling the current situation an "artificial constraint."
- In a Truth Social post, Trump vowed that in the meantime the U.S. would "bomb the hell out of the shoreline" and "continually" shoot Iranian boats and ships "out of the water."
- The article confirms that U.S. forces struck more than 90 military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island on Friday, including naval mine storage facilities and missile storage bunkers, while again sparing the island’s oil infrastructure.
- The IRGC Navy declared it remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that ships belonging to "aggressors and their allies" are barred and that "any attempt to move or transit will be targeted."
- Reuters reporting cited here says the IRGC claimed a right to target U.S. interests in the United Arab Emirates in self‑defense and warned civilians to evacuate ports, docks and U.S. military shelters there.
- The piece notes the helipad at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was struck Friday, according to the Associated Press, amid broader militia activity, though no group has claimed responsibility.
- MS NOW’s interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has him calling the conflict an "unprovoked, unwarranted, illegal act of aggression" and insisting Iran is only targeting American bases, installations, assets and interests under an "eye for an eye" self‑defense rationale.
- The story updates casualty and humanitarian context: more than 2,000 people killed in the region so far, with highest death tolls in Iran and Lebanon and what human‑rights groups describe as a humanitarian crisis from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- It reports that oil prices are hovering near all‑time highs as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and that Trump says U.S. Navy tanker escorts through the strait will start "very soon."
- A U.S. official told MS NOW the U.S. is sending up to 5,000 additional service members, including the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, plus several additional ships to the Arabian Sea.
- WSJ describes Kharg Island as the launch point for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports and calls it Iran’s most strategic economic asset.
- The article reinforces that Trump says the bombardment targeted only military facilities on Kharg while explicitly sparing oil installations.
- It quotes Trump’s warning that he would reconsider sparing the oil facilities if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping.
- Trump posted that the U.S. military 'totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran's crown jewel, Kharg Island' and said he chose 'for reasons of decency' not to wipe out the island’s oil infrastructure, explicitly tying future strikes on those facilities to any interference with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- NPR confirms CENTCOM’s finding that all six crew members aboard a KC‑135 refueling aircraft that went down over western Iraq were killed, and reiterates CENTCOM’s statement that the loss was not due to hostile or friendly fire.
- The article updates the U.S. military death toll in the Iran war to 13, with seven killed by enemy fire and eight severely wounded, and notes that NPR has confirmed an additional 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU aboard USS Tripoli are heading to the Middle East.
- Trump told reporters en route to Mar‑a‑Lago that Iran has been 'decimated,' that its 'country's in bad shape' and 'collapsing,' but refused to give any estimate of war duration, saying it would last 'as long as it's necessary.'
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said U.S.–Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury have hit more than 15,000 targets and claimed, without offering evidence, that they have injured Iran’s new supreme leader.
- NYT cites a U.S. military official specifying that the Kharg Island raid targeted missile and mine storage sites used to block shipping lanes, and asserts economic infrastructure was not targeted.
- A senior Iran Oil Ministry official describes nearly two hours of nonstop explosions on Kharg, calling the attacks ‘enormous and destructive’ and warning that any hit on the island’s oil and gas infrastructure would immediately halt a major part of Iran’s exports.
- NYT provides detailed context that roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports move via Kharg, that its terminal can load up to 10 supertankers at once, and that Falat Iran Oil Company on Kharg produces 500,000 barrels per day.
- The live blog confirms that about 2,500 Marines on as many as three warships are being redeployed from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, joining more than 50,000 U.S. troops already in the region as Hormuz traffic remains ‘all but halted.’
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issue a public threat that if the U.S. hits Iranian oil and energy facilities, they will ‘immediately’ attack all oil, energy and economic infrastructure of companies across the region tied to U.S. ownership or cooperation, vowing to turn them ‘into a pile of ash.’
- Iran’s semiofficial Fars news agency reports at least 15 explosions on Kharg Island, saying U.S. strikes hit an air defense facility, a naval base, the airport control tower and an offshore oil company’s helicopter hangar, while asserting no oil infrastructure was damaged.
- Iran’s joint military command, via spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, threatens to target 'all oil, economic, and energy infrastructures belonging to oil companies across the region that have American shares or cooperate with America' if Iranian energy and economic infrastructure are attacked.
- An American official says 2,500 more Marines and an amphibious assault ship are being sent to the Middle East nearly two weeks into the war with Iran, signaling further U.S. force buildup.
- Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reports fresh Israeli strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon on Saturday morning, as the regional conflict intensifies.
- Hamas issues its first public statement since the war began on Feb. 28, urging regional countries to 'cooperate and stop' the U.S. and Israeli assault on Iran, affirming Iran’s right to respond under 'international norms and laws,' but urging Tehran to avoid targeting neighboring countries.
- An airstrike hits a house in Baghdad’s Karrada district early Saturday, killing at least one person and wounding two, with the Iraqi military condemning it as a 'blatant violation' of humanitarian values and international conventions; the strike precedes a separate missile attack on the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.
- Article specifies that U.S. forces on Friday "obliterated" targets on Kharg Island, with Trump framing the raid as focused on military sites while confirming the island is home to Iran’s primary oil export terminal.
- Provides fresh detail that an American official says 2,500 more Marines and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, with elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, have been ordered to the Middle East from Japan.
- Notes the Tripoli was recently spotted by commercial satellites sailing alone near Taiwan and is more than a week away from waters off Iran, indicating the deployment’s timeline.
- Describes current U.S. naval posture: 12 ships, including USS Abraham Lincoln and eight destroyers, operating in the Arabian Sea, with Tripoli poised to become the region’s second‑largest ship if it joins the flotilla.
- Reiterates that Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and continues missile and drone attacks on Israel and Gulf states, and mentions a deepening humanitarian crisis in Lebanon with nearly 800 killed and 850,000 displaced in Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.
- Adds a quote from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf warning that attacks on Iran’s southern islands would cause Iran to "abandon all restraint," underscoring escalation risks tied specifically to these islands.
- Axios reports Trump characterized the Kharg Island raid as ‘one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East’ and claimed it ‘totally obliterated every MILITARY target’ on the island.
- The piece notes the White House had been considering a ground operation to seize Kharg Island as one of several options presented by the Pentagon before the war, underscoring its centrality to Iran’s oil exports.
- Axios specifies that 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports move through Kharg Island and reports Trump framed the raid as a ‘shot across the bow’ meant to compel Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Trump’s Truth Social post, as quoted here, explicitly calls on Iranian military personnel to lay down their arms to ‘save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much!’ and warns he will reconsider sparing the oil infrastructure if Iran or others interfere with shipping.