New PBS/NPR/Marist Poll Shows Falling Election Confidence and Partisan Split Over Biggest Threats to Voting
A new PBS/NPR/Marist poll finds confidence that state and local governments will run fair and accurate elections in November 2026 has fallen to about two‑thirds — down 10 points from just before the 2024 election and the lowest level since Marist began asking in 2020 — with sharp drops among Democrats and independents while Republican confidence is essentially unchanged; Americans are also split on whether the National Guard should monitor voting. The poll shows partisan divisions over the biggest threats to elections (one‑third overall cite voter fraud — 57% of Republicans — 26% cite misleading information — about a third of independents — and 24% cite voter suppression — 41% of Democrats), and Marist’s Lee Miringoff says these fears are driven more by political messaging than by evidence, a dynamic reflected in proposals like the SAVE America Act requiring proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
📌 Key Facts
- Two-thirds of Americans say they are confident their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election in November 2026 — a 10-point drop from the month before the 2024 presidential election and the lowest level since Marist began asking in 2020.
- Confidence since 2024 has fallen 16 points among Democrats and 11 points among independents, while Republican confidence has ticked up 3 points (within the margin of error).
- When asked about the single biggest threat to safe and accurate elections, one-third of respondents named voter fraud, 26% named misleading information, 24% named voter suppression, and 8% named foreign interference.
- There is a sharp partisan split over those threats: 57% of Republicans say voter fraud is the top threat, 41% of Democrats point to voter suppression, and about one-third of independents are most worried about misleading information.
- Marist pollster Lee Miringoff says these fears are being driven more by political messaging than by court cases or evidence, characterizing it as politicians shaping a sense that 'the other guy's up to no good.'
- The story links these attitudes to President Trump’s threat to block all legislation unless Congress passes the SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register for federal elections — a response aimed at a type of voter fraud experts say is very rare.
📊 Relevant Data
Following the 2024 presidential election, 80% of White voters expressed confidence that votes were counted as intended, compared to 71% of Asian-American voters, 68% of Black voters, and 66% of Latino voters.
How Did Trust in Elections Change After the 2024 Presidential Contest? — Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research, UC San Diego
In a February 2026 survey, 45% of Hispanic respondents, 44% of Black respondents, and 41% of Asian American respondents expected ICE officers at polling places in 2026, compared to 33% of White respondents, with such expectations linked to lower election confidence.
Trust in Elections Declines across Party Lines Ahead of 2026 Midterms, UC San Diego Survey Finds — UC San Diego Today
The presence of police outside polling places was associated with a 32% reduction in African American voter turnout during the 2017 U.S. Senate special election in Alabama.
Policing Polling Places in the United States: The Negative Effect of Police Presence on African American Turnout in an Alabama Election — Politics, Groups, and Identities (Taylor & Francis)
Voter fraud is extremely rare in U.S. elections; for example, over 20 years in Arizona, there were only 39 confirmed cases out of more than 100 million votes cast.
How widespread is election fraud in the United States? Not very — Brookings Institution
📰 Source Timeline (2)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
- Two‑thirds of Americans say they are confident their state or local government will run a fair and accurate election in November 2026, down 10 percentage points from the month before the 2024 presidential election and the lowest level since Marist began asking in 2020.
- Confidence has dropped 16 points among Democrats and 11 points among independents since 2024, while Republican confidence has ticked up 3 points, within the margin of error.
- One‑third of Americans now say voter fraud is the single biggest threat to safe and accurate elections, 26% cite misleading information, 24% cite voter suppression, and just 8% cite foreign interference.
- Fifty‑seven percent of Republicans name voter fraud as the top threat, while 41% of Democrats cite voter suppression and about a third of independents are most concerned about misleading information.
- Marist pollster Lee Miringoff is quoted saying that fears are being driven more by political messaging than by court cases or evidence: 'It's the politicians driving the cart... It's being shaped by a sense that the other guy's up to no good.'
- The story links these attitudes to President Trump’s threat to block all legislation unless Congress passes the SAVE America Act, which would among other things require proof of citizenship to register for federal elections, a response the article notes is aimed at a type of voter fraud experts say is very rare.