Iraqi Kurds Warn of Iranian Retaliation as Trump Signals Openness to Iranian Kurdish Offensive
President Trump has signaled openness to an Iranian Kurdish offensive — saying he would be "all for" one — while reports say U.S. and Israeli agencies have been supporting and repositioning Kurdish fighters near the Iran border, even as U.S. officials publicly deny formal arming. Iraqi Kurdish authorities, who say they lack air defenses and are trying to prevent cross‑border attacks, warn Tehran has threatened massive retaliation against facilities in the Kurdistan Region if militants use Iraqi territory to strike Iran.
📌 Key Facts
- Axios reports U.S. and Israeli intelligence (CIA and Mossad) are backing Iranian Kurdish militias in a plan—originating with Israeli leaders and later joined by the CIA—to seize territory in Iranian Kurdistan as part of a broader effort to challenge Tehran and potentially spur an uprising; Israeli officials have allegedly promised Kurdish factions political support for future autonomy if the regime falls.
- Hundreds of Kurdish fighters have reportedly been moved from camps on the Iraqi side of the border into Iran in recent weeks as preparations for a potential offensive coordinated with U.S.–Israeli bombing; PJAK’s co‑chair says fighters are already inside Iran but will not rise without explicit U.S. backing.
- President Trump told Reuters he would be “all for” Kurdish fighters launching an offensive and called their intent “wonderful,” but declined to confirm whether the U.S. would provide air cover; Axios and CNN reporting indicate Trump also spoke directly with Kurdish leader Mustafa Hijri, while White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president has not agreed to any plan to support a Kurdish offensive and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers, “We're not arming the Kurds. But you never know with the Israelis.”
- KDPI leader Amanj Zabtaee confirmed to CBS that the KDPI is in contact with the U.S. government and shares the goal of toppling Iran’s Islamic regime but would not say whether Washington has promised material support, calling the topic too sensitive.
- Kurdish groups have signaled unity politically and operationally: Komala, PDKI, PJAK and the Kurdistan Freedom Party formed a new Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, and Komala’s leadership says they are “waiting for a moment to do something” but are constrained by Iran’s missile and drone capabilities.
- Iran’s Defense Council warned it would target “all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq” on a massive scale if Iranian Kurdish militants or “Zionist regime elements” use Iraqi Kurdistan to enter Iran; Kurdish officials say the Kurdistan Region has no air defenses and fears the destructive potential of up to 200 Iranian Shahed drones, and Kurdish opposition bases have already been struck by Iranian missiles and drones.
- Iraqi Kurdish authorities say they are deliberately staying neutral—citing unclear U.S. regime‑change messaging and skepticism that regime change will occur without U.S. “boots on the ground”—and KDP officials say Peshmerga forces have so far prevented Iranian Kurdish militias from launching cross‑border attacks, reflecting an active KRG effort to avoid escalation; analysts and Kurdish leaders warn that without explicit U.S. air support lightly armed Kurdish fighters would be exposed and vulnerable.
📊 Relevant Data
Kurds in Iran constitute approximately 10-12% of the country's population, with estimates ranging from 9 to 10 million people, primarily residing in the northwestern regions bordering Iraq and Turkey.
Kurds in Iran — Wikipedia
Iranian Kurdistan ranks among the lowest in economic development within Iran, characterized by high unemployment and economic backwardness compared to the national average and neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan, contributing to ethnic grievances.
Fissures Among Iran's Ethnic Minority Groups Are Poised To Break Open — Newlines Institute
The United States has a history of betraying Kurdish allies, including in 1975 when support for Iraqi Kurds against Saddam Hussein was withdrawn after Iran and Iraq reached an agreement, and in 2019 when US troops pulled back from northern Syria allowing Turkish incursions.
Eight Times the U.S. Has Betrayed the Kurds — The Intercept
Public approval for US military action in Iran shows a partisan divide, with 69% of Republicans approving compared to only 10% of Democrats in a 2026 survey.
A wider conflict in Iran could trigger a migration wave of up to 9 million people if 10% of the population flees, potentially overwhelming European asylum systems according to EU projections.
Iran war could cause 'unprecedented' migration crisis — The Times
📰 Source Timeline (5)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
March 07, 2026
1:37 AM
Under threat, Iraqi Kurds resist pressure to join Iran war
New information:
- Iran’s Defense Council, via official Ali Akbar Ahmadian, issued a written statement warning that if Iranian Kurdish militants or 'Zionist regime elements' use Iraqi Kurdistan to enter Iran or plot attacks, 'all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq...will be targeted on a massive scale.'
- A senior Iraqi Kurdish government official told Axios that the Kurdistan Region has no air-defense systems and fears what 200 Iranian Shahed drones could do, underscoring KRG vulnerability if drawn into the war.
- The same Kurdish official said Iraqi Kurds are deliberately staying neutral because Trump’s regime-change messaging is unclear, questioning whether U.S. policy is 'full regime change' or merely 'a change in personnel' and concluding that without U.S. 'boots on the ground,' regime change is unlikely.
- The official said Israel is 'far more aggressive' than the U.S. in pushing Iranian Kurds to join the war and characterized Israeli aims as 'annihilation of the current order' in Iran, contrasting that with a U.S. willingness to accept a 'Regime Lite ... Venezuela Plus' outcome.
- PJAK co-chair Amir Karimi said Iranian Kurdish fighters are already inside Iran but will not rise up without explicit U.S. backing, citing two past uprisings that failed without external support.
- A KDP official said Peshmerga forces have so far successfully stopped Iranian Kurdish militias from launching attacks into Iran from Iraqi territory, indicating an active KRG effort to prevent cross‑border escalation.
March 06, 2026
2:53 PM
Trump encourages Iranian Kurds to attack Iran, but will he help them?
New information:
- CBS interviews Amanj Zabtaee of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI) at the group’s base in northern Iraq, who confirms KDPI is in contact with the U.S. government and says both sides share the goal of toppling Iran’s Islamic regime.
- Zabtaee refuses to say whether KDPI has been promised material support by Washington, calling the subject 'too sensitive,' but acknowledges the group hopes to use the U.S.–Israeli war as an opportunity to help overthrow the regime.
- CBS underscores that, as of now, KDPI has not received direct U.S. support and warns that, without U.S. air cover, its lightly armed fighters would be exposed 'sitting ducks' if they tried to cross into Iran.
- The piece lays out a historical pattern of U.S. encouragement and later abandonment of Kurdish allies in Iraq and Syria, framing current Kurdish hopes against that backdrop.
March 05, 2026
6:19 PM
Kurdish fighters watch for opening to strike Iran as Trump voices support
New information:
- President Donald Trump told Reuters he would be 'all for' Kurdish fighters launching an offensive against Iran and called their intent 'wonderful,' while declining to say whether the U.S. would provide air cover.
- Komala leadership committee member Kako Aliyar, speaking from an undisclosed location in Iraq, said Kurdish movements are 'waiting for a moment to do something' against the Islamic Republic but cannot move yet because of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities.
- Aliyar described ongoing Iranian missile and drone attacks on Kurdish opposition bases in Iraqi Kurdistan and said Kurdish groups have formed a new Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, uniting Komala, PDKI, PJAK and the Kurdistan Freedom Party as a political signal of Kurdish unity.
- Aliyar indicated that Kurdish fighters would try to re‑enter Iranian territory if they judge that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been sufficiently degraded by current strikes.
2:55 AM
Kurds backed by CIA, Mossad could lead next phase of war in Iran
New information:
- Axios, citing two U.S. and Israeli officials and a third source, reports that Iranian Kurdish militias are backed by the CIA and Mossad, with a goal of seizing specific territory in Iranian Kurdistan to challenge Tehran and spur broader uprising.
- The idea to support Kurdish Iranian factions for a ground offensive from Iraq into Iran is described as originating with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad, with the CIA joining later, and Israeli officials have allegedly promised Kurdish factions political support for future autonomy inside Iran if the regime falls.
- Axios says hundreds of Kurdish fighters have already been moved from camps on the Iraqi side of the border into Iran in recent weeks, as part of preparations for a potential offensive coordinated with U.S.–Israeli bombing.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers in a closed briefing, 'We're not arming the Kurds. But you never know with the Israelis,' and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt publicly stated that President Trump has not agreed to any plan to support a Kurdish offensive.
- Axios confirms earlier CNN reporting that Trump separately spoke with Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan leader Mustafa Hijri, and adds that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has voiced concerns to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani about a possible Kurdish‑led ground incursion.