Polymarket Iran Bets Spur Insider‑Trading, War‑Profits Backlash in Congress

NPR reports that an anonymous Polymarket user known as 'Magamyman' cleared more than $553,000 by betting that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out of power just before U.S.–Israeli strikes killed him on Feb. 28, part of roughly $500 million wagered on the timing of U.S. bombing and regime change in Iran. The trades are drawing fire from Sen. Chris Murphy (D‑Conn.), who called it 'insane this is legal' and says he will introduce legislation to outlaw betting on war and death events that may hinge on classified U.S. military plans. The White House denies anyone close to President Trump was involved, but Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket and his fund 1789 Capital has invested millions, and the Trump administration has quietly dropped two federal investigations that Biden‑era regulators had opened into the company even as it prepares a U.S. platform. The story situates this episode alongside suspiciously timed Polymarket profits on the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and an Israeli case in which two people were charged with using military secrets to bet on attacks, underscoring how these offshore markets are becoming vehicles to monetize state secrets while sitting largely beyond CFTC reach. Under U.S. commodity law, contracts that create financial incentives for death and war are supposed to be illegal, and Kalshi responded by constraining a parallel Khamenei market, highlighting both regulatory gray zones and growing pressure in Washington to shut down or sharply rein in these products.