New NPR/PBS/Marist Poll Shows 56% Oppose Trump’s Iran War as His Approval on Conflict and Economy Falls to Mid‑30s; Michigan Swing Voters Cite Gas Prices and War Costs
A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll finds 56% of Americans oppose U.S. military action in Iran, with just 36% approving of President Trump’s handling of the conflict and only about 35% approving of his handling of the economy. In online focus groups of Michigan swing voters, many said rising gas prices and the potential costs of a protracted war have increased economic anxiety and eroded support for the campaign's Iran strategy.
📌 Key Facts
- A new NPR/PBS/Marist poll finds 56% of Americans oppose U.S. military action in Iran and 44% support it; only 36% approve of President Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, his overall job approval in this poll is 38%, and his approval on the economy is 35%.
- Opposition to the Iran campaign is strongest among Democrats (about 86%), independents (61%), younger adults (18–29: 64%), Black (68%) and Latino (60%) voters; white evangelicals remain more supportive (about 68%).
- Online focus groups of 12 Michigan swing voters (2020 Biden, 2024 Trump) found 9 of 12 disapproved of U.S. actions in Iran and 11 of 12 said they felt more anxious about the economy since Trump returned to office, explicitly linking that anxiety to gas‑price spikes and war costs and saying money should be spent at home.
- Public concern about fuel costs has surged: Morning Consult found 48% of Americans blame President Trump for high gas prices, AAA reported the national average rose to about $3.60/gal (from $2.95 a month earlier), and broad majorities worry the war will drive energy prices higher.
- Congressional attempts to constrain the president failed: the Senate voted 47–53 against Sen. Tim Kaine’s war‑powers resolution (Rand Paul the lone GOP yes; Sen. John Fetterman the lone Democrat no), and the House blocked consideration of Rep. Thomas Massie’s resolution by 219–212, with a small number of cross‑party votes in both chambers.
- Lawmakers and analysts warn funding is the remaining leverage point: the administration and Pentagon are preparing a supplemental funding request (reported up to ~$50 billion), giving Congress another high‑stakes decision even after the war‑powers votes failed.
- Trump and administration messaging has been inconsistent: Trump told the New York Times he anticipated maintaining assaults on Iran for 'four to five weeks' while publicly entertaining multiple endgames (including limited regime‑change scenarios); critics say there is no clear timeline or exit strategy even as Pentagon officials and the White House insist the operation is meeting objectives and can be sustained.
- The conflict is active and escalating regionally: U.S. and Israeli strikes continued into a second week (reported as Day 12 in some coverage), there have been missile and drone exchanges affecting Tel Aviv, Beirut and neighboring areas, Iran warned the U.S. over an attack on an Iranian warship (reported deaths at least 87), and officials on both sides have framed the situation in terms ranging from 'imminent threat' to a 'war of choice.'
📊 Relevant Data
Black and Latino households in the US pay 13-18% more per square foot of housing for energy compared to White households, based on analysis of electricity costs and consumption.
Race, rates, and energy insecurity: exploring racial disparities in electricity costs and consumption in U.S. utility service areas — Scientific Reports (Nature)
In a 2022 San Diego County poll, 53% of Latino residents and 50% of Black residents reported rising gas prices as an extremely serious problem, compared to 30% of White residents and 24% of Asian residents.
Gas Prices a Serious Headache for Latino and Black Communities — Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC)
In the same 2022 poll, 46% of Latino residents blamed the president (Biden at the time) for high gas prices, compared to 32% overall in San Diego County.
Gas Prices a Serious Headache for Latino and Black Communities — Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC)
📊 Analysis & Commentary (4)
SEN RAND PAUL: America is at war—but Americans didn’t vote for it
"Sen. Rand Paul’s opinion criticizes the Trump administration for beginning major hostilities with Iran without prior congressional debate or authorization and reproaches congressional leaders for abdicating their constitutional duty to subject any war to public debate and a vote."
GREGG JARRETT: Democrat war powers vote was an unconstitutional way to halt Iran strikes
"The Fox News opinion piece defends the president’s constitutional authority to conduct strikes on Iran, argues the Senate’s Tim Kaine war‑powers resolution was unconstitutional and politically hypocritical, and urges that Congress not usurp executive wartime discretion."
Will Iran break MAGA?
"An opinion analysis arguing that polling and political dynamics around the Iran war create a realistic risk that continued conflict, casualties and economic pain could erode Trump’s broader MAGA coalition — though strong base support and polarization mean the outcome is not certain."
How popular is Donald Trump?
"A Nate Silver analysis interprets recent polls (notably the NPR/PBS/Marist results) to argue that Trump’s approval has fallen into the mid‑30s driven by the Iran war and higher gas prices, cautions against overreading noisy short‑term swings, and emphasizes methodological nuance and the electoral significance of swing‑voter shifts."
📰 Source Timeline (25)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
March 12, 2026
4:11 PM
48% of Americans blame Trump for high gas prices — more than any other factor
New information:
- Morning Consult flash polling finds 48% of Americans say President Trump and his administration are most responsible for current gas prices, more than any other single factor listed.
- The same poll finds 74% of Americans say gas prices have increased this year, up 30 points from six weeks ago.
- AAA data cited in the article show the national average gas price is now $3.60 per gallon, up from $2.95 a month ago—more than a 20% jump over 11 days of consecutive increases.
- White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Axios by email that the administration views the spike as a short‑term wartime disruption and claims prices will fall ‘rapidly’ once military objectives are completed and Iran is ‘neutralized.’
- Trump posted that the U.S. profits as the world’s largest oil producer when prices rise but argued that stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons matters ‘of far greater interest and importance’ than low gas prices.
9:00 AM
Trump's war with Iran is angering some swing voters who want money spent at home
New information:
- NPR observed two online focus groups of 12 Michigan voters who backed Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, run by Engagious and Sago as part of the Swing Voter Project.
- Nine of the 12 participants said they disapprove of what the U.S. is doing in Iran, and 11 of 12 reported feeling more anxious about the economy now than before Trump returned to office.
- Participants explicitly linked their economic anxiety to the Iran war, citing gas‑price spikes, fear of traveling, and uncertainty about why the U.S. started bombing Iran, with some saying money should be spent at home instead of on war.
- Individual voter quotes draw parallels to the Iraq war dragging on and suggest concern that Trump’s Iran campaign could become another open‑ended conflict.
- Several focus‑group members speculated that the U.S. relationship with Israel helped drive the decision to go to war with Iran, echoing a broader shift in American views of Israel noted in recent Gallup polling.
March 11, 2026
12:18 PM
Trump keeps telling America he's winning in Iran. He's less clear in explaining how the war ends
New information:
- The article provides narrative backing for the polling data by reporting that Trump’s shifting statements — from 'unconditional surrender' to talk of replacement of one hard‑line ayatollah with another and 'short‑term excursion' rhetoric — are helping drive criticism that he lacks a coherent plan or exit strategy.
- It adds a specific critical voice, Sen. Mark Kelly, explicitly saying the administration has 'no timeline' and 'no exit strategy,' evidence of growing congressional concern that mirrors polling showing Americans find the war’s goals unclear.
- The story notes that Trump and his team have tried simultaneously to reassure Americans the war will not drag on while refusing to rule out ground troops, a tension that is likely contributing to the lack of public confidence captured in recent surveys.
11:12 AM
Americans skeptical of the Iran war, poll says. And, DOJ gives guns back to felons
New information:
- NPR/PBS/Marist’s latest poll of nearly 1,600 adults finds only 36% approve of Trump’s handling of the Iran war, while 56% of respondents oppose the conflict.
- Trump’s overall job‑approval rating in this poll is 38%, and his approval on the economy is just 35%, described as his worst economic rating to date in this series.
- Roughly eight in 10 Republicans still back Trump’s economic policies and approach to Iran, but independents have moved to align more closely with Democrats on issues including the Iran war.
- The polling is explicitly tied to Day 12 of the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran, as the Trump administration promises its most aggressive strikes yet and Iran threatens banks and economic centers in the Middle East as potential targets.
March 10, 2026
10:30 PM
Trump's Iran war messaging is all over the map
New information:
- Reuters–Ipsos poll of 1,021 respondents finds only 33% say Trump has clearly explained the Iran mission’s purpose, with 92% of Democrats and 74% of independents saying he has not, versus 26% of Republicans.
- White House spokesperson Olivia Wales tells Axios that Operation Epic Fury is “meeting or surpassing all of its goals” and says the U.S. will continue “eliminating the national security threat posed by the rogue Iranian regime.”
- Article lays out detailed examples of Trump’s conflicting public statements on war timelines, endgame conditions, oil-market impacts and Iran’s political future, including his talk of demanding “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and personally helping pick Iran’s next leader, even as his Pentagon denies regime change is the goal.
6:18 PM
Polls show what Americans think about the war in Iran
New information:
- A Quinnipiac poll conducted over the weekend finds 53% of registered voters oppose U.S. military action against Iran, about 4 in 10 support it, and about 1 in 10 are unsure.
- Washington Post and CNN snap text polls taken shortly after joint U.S.–Israeli attacks also showed opposition outpacing support, while a Fox News poll found the public evenly split, 50% approve and 50% disapprove.
- Roughly 7 in 10 registered voters are very or somewhat concerned the war will drive up oil and gasoline prices, with concern highest among Democrats and independents but shared by about half of Republicans.
- In the Quinnipiac survey, 55% of voters say Iran did not pose an ‘imminent military threat’ to the U.S. before the strikes, while about 6 in 10 in a Fox poll still see Iran as a ‘real national security threat’ and an AP‑NORC poll finds about half of adults highly concerned about Iran’s nuclear program.
- Several polls show majorities believe the Trump administration has not clearly explained the reasons for the strikes, and many respondents say Trump’s decisions are making the U.S. ‘less safe,’ even as he offers mixed messages about the war’s likely duration.
March 09, 2026
11:38 AM
Combat-shaped lawmakers face new Mideast war
New information:
- Sen. Ruben Gallego, an Iraq War Marine veteran whose unit took heavy casualties, publicly wrestles with 'gratification' over striking Iran’s leadership versus his responsibility not to let 'lust for revenge' drive the U.S. into another war.
- Rep. Eli Crane, a former Navy SEAL, says he warned against a new 'long, drawn‑out Middle Eastern war' but felt somewhat reassured by classified briefings that Trump is not planning a prolonged conflict, and he therefore voted against the war powers resolution.
- The piece notes that senior Trump officials shaping the Iran campaign, including Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, are themselves Iraq veterans, underscoring how post‑9/11 combat experience permeates both the legislative and executive branches.
- Rep. Brian Mast, a combat‑wounded veteran and chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, led floor opposition to the House war powers resolution aimed at constraining Trump’s Iran strikes.
March 07, 2026
9:00 AM
WATCH: Capitol Hill debate erupts over whether Trump’s Iran strikes amount to ‘war’
New information:
- Sen. Tim Kaine argues Trump has effectively started a 'war' in Iran and that Congress is 'not supposed to be an after‑the‑fact spectator,' explicitly tying Operation Epic Fury to War Powers requirements.
- Sen. Josh Hawley says the administration is complying with the War Powers statute so far, asserts Article II authority for the current air campaign, and names ground troops as his 'red line' that would require new congressional approval.
- The article notes that the Senate, in a 53–47 vote, passed a measure to kill a Democrat‑led war‑powers resolution aimed at limiting Trump’s Iran operations.
- Sen. Richard Blumenthal points out that Trump, the secretary of state and generals have themselves called the situation a 'war,' arguing that if it is a war, Congress must authorize it.
- Sen. Mark Warner challenges the administration’s 'imminent threat' rationale, saying there was no imminent threat to the United States and calling it the president’s 'war of choice.'
March 06, 2026
7:02 PM
Poll: A majority of Americans opposes U.S. military action in Iran
New information:
- A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds 56% of Americans oppose U.S. military action in Iran, while 44% support it.
- Only 36% of respondents approve of President Trump’s handling of Iran; 54% disapprove.
- A majority (55%) say Iran is a minor threat or no threat at all to the United States, while 44% see it as a major threat.
- Opposition to the war is especially high among Democrats (86%), independents (61%), younger adults 18–29 (64%), Black respondents (68%) and Latino respondents (60%).
- White evangelicals still back Trump on Iran but at a lower-than-usual 68% approval, below their typical support levels for him.
6:00 PM
Democrats pressure Mike Johnson to keep House in Washington over 'rapidly developing' Iran operation
New information:
- Rep. Jared Moskowitz and nine other House Democrats sent Speaker Mike Johnson a Friday letter urging him to cancel next week’s recess and keep the House in session because of the 'rapidly evolving' U.S. military operation against Iran.
- The letter explicitly cites heightened global threat assessments and the 'tragic loss of six U.S. service members' as reasons the House should remain in Washington and convene key national-security committees.
- Republicans are heading to President Trump’s Doral golf club in Florida for their annual member retreat next week and argue Democrats are playing politics after Democrats opposed a DHS funding bill GOP leaders say is vital amid the Iran-related threat environment.
8:14 AM
Live Updates: Tehran, Beirut and Tel Aviv Are Targeted in Attacks and Counterattacks
New information:
- The 219–212 House vote blocking consideration of a resolution limiting Trump’s ability to wage war in Iran is now explicitly positioned amid fresh missile and drone exchanges between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, including attacks on Tel Aviv and Beirut.
- The article underscores that U.S. and Israeli officials are simultaneously touting the effectiveness of Operation Epic Fury — citing a 90% drop in Iranian ballistic missile attacks — while Congress declines to assert war‑powers authority.
- It links the war‑powers fight to growing criticism of the administration’s evacuation planning for Americans in the Middle East, which State is now scrambling to address with charter flights.
March 05, 2026
9:59 PM
House Turns Back Bid to Restrict Trump’s War Powers in Iran
New information:
- The House voted 219–212 to block consideration of Rep. Thomas Massie’s bipartisan resolution that would have ended offensive military operations in Iran not authorized by Congress.
- Four Democrats (Henry Cuellar, Jared Golden, Greg Landsman and Juan C. Vargas) opposed taking up the measure, while two Republicans (Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson) backed it.
- Rep. Massie argued on the floor that none of the War Powers Resolution predicates for unilateral presidential use of force exist today, while Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast defended Trump’s authority and called Iran an “imminent threat.”
9:43 PM
House rejects Iran war powers measure
New information:
- Article explicitly frames the failed House vote as effectively an endorsement of Trump’s ongoing military campaign in Iran, given Congress’ constitutional war‑declaration role.
- Clarifies that House Democratic leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, backed the stronger war‑powers measure, putting Democratic opponents 'on an island.'
- Reports that a 'handful of Democrats' are instead supporting a narrower resolution that would direct the president to remove U.S. forces from hostilities with Iran within 30 days of the Feb. 28 attack unless Congress approves, giving the administration more leeway.
- Includes new quotes from Speaker Mike Johnson arguing passage would 'empower our enemies' and from Rep. Warren Davidson warning about the 'moral hazard' of a government 'no longer constrained by the constitution.'
- Notes that the Pentagon is preparing to send Congress a supplemental funding request related to the Iran campaign, per House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole.
7:49 PM
Pentagon policy chief grilled as Dem claims Trump broke promise about going to war with Iran
New information:
- Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby testified before the House Armed Services Committee about the 2026 National Defense Strategy and Operation Epic Fury, facing pointed questioning from Ranking Member Rep. Adam Smith on Trump’s campaign statements about not going to war with Iran.
- Smith asserted that Trump 'failed' to keep his promise not to go to war with Iran, saying 'we're at war with Iran,' while Colby argued the president’s Iran policy is consistent with his long‑standing opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapon and his 'peace through strength' doctrine.
- Republican Reps. Joe Wilson and Richard McCormick defended the administration, with Wilson claiming Trump is 'preventing endless wars' and Colby answering McCormick that he does not view the Iran campaign as a 'forever war.'
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt separately dismissed 'fake news headlines' questioning the justification for U.S.–Israeli strikes, reiterating the administration’s line that Iran is a 'rogue terrorist regime' threatening the U.S. and its allies.
2:56 PM
WATCH LIVE: House expected to vote Iran on war powers resolution
New information:
- Confirms the House will take up the Iran war powers resolution on Thursday, March 5, 2026, convening at 10 a.m. EST, with expectations of a tight vote.
- Provides on‑the‑record quotes from Rep. Gregory Meeks, Rep. Brian Mast, and Rep. Jamie Raskin crystallizing partisan and constitutional arguments over Trump’s unilateral decision to go to war with Iran.
- Describes how many Republicans frame the operation not as the start of a new war but as an opportunity to end the Iranian regime after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- Frames the House roll call as an early snapshot of political support or opposition to the U.S.–Israel military operation and to Trump’s bypassing of Congress.
12:26 PM
House to vote on Trump's war powers. And, Minnesota sues over halted Medicaid funding
New information:
- Confirms timing that the House vote on a measure to constrain President Trump’s authority to wage war in Iran is expected today, one day after the Senate defeated the Kaine resolution 47–53.
- Adds more narrative detail on conditions inside Iran from NPR’s Ruth Sherlock, including accounts of traumatized civilians crossing the border and fear of speaking to Western media due to risk of arrest.
- Highlights that Iran says the United States will 'bitterly regret' torpedoing an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, reiterating the reported death toll of at least 87.
- Reinforces that the conflict is now in its sixth day, with continued U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
11:00 AM
House to vote on curbing Trump's Iran war powers
New information:
- The House has scheduled a Thursday vote on a war powers resolution, introduced by Rep. Thomas Massie, that would direct the president 'to remove United States Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran.'
- House Speaker Mike Johnson opposes the resolution, calling the Iran operation 'necessary, lawful and effective' and arguing that passing it would 'play right into the hands of the enemy' and weaken America.
- Rep. Warren Davidson, a conservative Republican from Ohio, publicly announced he will back the war‑powers measure, warning of the 'moral hazard' of a government no longer constrained by the Constitution.
- Other Republicans, including Reps. Don Bacon and Nancy Mace, say they will support Trump on this vote but signaled they could reassess if the operation drags on for more than a few weeks or if ground troops enter Iran.
- A CBS News poll cited in the article finds a majority of Americans disapprove of current U.S. military action against Iran and about two‑thirds say any further military action should require prior congressional approval.
- House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicts 'very strong Democratic support' for the war‑powers resolution, though the vote is expected to fail much as the Senate resolution did.
March 04, 2026
11:35 PM
Senate fails to advance war powers resolution to block Trump from using more military force in Iran
New information:
- CBS characterizes the Senate action as a failure to advance a war powers resolution aimed at blocking President Trump from using further military force against Iran, consistent with but not materially different from existing descriptions.
- The segment frames the vote in terms of Trump’s latitude to continue or broaden military operations rather than technical resolution details, but adds no new numbers or named vote breakdown beyond what is already reported.
11:16 PM
Senate rejects bill to curb Trump on Iran. That fits a long pattern on war powers.
New information:
- Frames the March 4 Senate vote as part of a decades‑long trend of Congress diluting its constitutional war‑powers role and acting more as a bystander than a decider on military operations.
- Reports that the Trump administration is preparing to ask Congress for up to $50 billion in supplemental funding for the Iran war, which would give lawmakers another high‑stakes leverage point even after the war‑powers vote failed.
- Includes expert analysis from Cato’s Clark Neily and Tufts’ Michael Glennon arguing that strong party loyalties and congressional unwillingness to use tools like funding cuts or impeachment have left 'no real practical limit' on presidents’ ability to unilaterally wage foreign wars.
10:34 PM
Senate Republicans vote down legislation to halt war against Iran in early show of support for Trump’s campaign
New information:
- ABC/AP wire notes that Senate Republicans voted down legislation to halt the war against Iran in what is characterized as an early show of support for President Trump’s campaign, reinforcing that GOP opposition was nearly unified and explicitly framed as backing Trump.
- It reinforces the partisan framing that this vote is not just about war powers in isolation but is being treated by Senate Republicans as an early campaign loyalty test to Trump’s Iran policy and reelection bid.
10:34 PM
Senate GOP gives Trump free hand in Iran as war powers vote fails
New information:
- The Senate on March 4, 2026 voted 47–53 against a Tim Kaine–sponsored resolution directing removal of unauthorized U.S. forces from hostilities in Iran.
- Sen. Rand Paul was the only Republican voting yes; Sen. John Fetterman was the only Democrat voting no.
- Sen. Todd Young, who previously backed moving a Venezuela war-powers measure, opposed the Iran resolution, saying it would 'limit the President’s military options at this critical moment' and warning that abrupt disengagement could increase risks.
- Sen. Joni Ernst publicly asserted that 'the commander in chief has the authority to do these strikes.'
- Democrats acknowledge they lack veto-proof majorities, and Kaine says the goal is to force members to go on record even though passage and survival of a presidential veto are unlikely.
- A separate House Iran war-powers measure is expected to face a tight vote the next day.
10:25 PM
Operation Epic Fury survives Senate challenge as Republicans close ranks behind Trump
New information:
- Fox piece underscores that, in the final vote, only Sen. Rand Paul backed the Kaine resolution, while Sen. Jon Fetterman was the lone Democrat to oppose it, sharpening the partisan breakdown.
- It reports that the administration held multiple high-level briefings with senators to lobby for Operation Epic Fury and appears to have swayed some previously wavering Republicans.
- Sen. Josh Hawley is quoted saying he will oppose this specific war powers effort while reiterating his view that a ground operation in Iran would require immediate congressional authorization.
- Republican senators such as Lindsey Graham and Markwayne Mullin are quoted explicitly framing the War Powers Resolution as an unconstitutional encroachment on the commander in chief and arguing Congress’ remedy is cutting off funds, not directing operations.
9:50 PM
A split Senate votes against measure to constrain Trump's authorities in Iran
New information:
- Confirms the final Senate vote tally on the Kaine resolution as 47–53, largely along party lines.
- Spells out that the measure would have explicitly barred further U.S. military action in Iran without congressional approval under the 1973 War Powers Act.
- Adds on‑the‑record quotes from Sen. Chris Van Hollen accusing Trump of launching an 'illegal, regime‑change war' that has caused 'mass civilian casualties.'
- Notes that Sen. Rand Paul was the lone Republican voting for the resolution, underscoring the breadth of GOP support for the Iran campaign.
- Reports Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s same‑day claim that the U.S. and Israel are 'days away from controlling Iranian airspace' and can 'sustain this fight easily for as long as we need to,' framing the operation as just beginning.
March 02, 2026
12:58 AM
Trump Says Iran War Could Last Weeks and Gives Competing Visions of New Regime
New information:
- Trump tells The New York Times he anticipates maintaining the assault on Iran for 'four to five weeks' and says it 'won’t be difficult' for the U.S. and Israel to sustain the current battle intensity.
- He publicly entertains and describes several potential post‑strike political outcomes in Iran, including a Venezuela‑style model that removes only the top leader while leaving the broader regime in place but 'pragmatic' toward the U.S.
- The interview makes clear the White House is still uncertain how power should be transferred in Tehran and what kind of successor government the U.S. is actually trying to midwife.
- Those remarks supply a clearer, if still muddled, statement of presidential intent that Democratic critics can now point to as evidence of a contemplated multi‑week, quasi‑regime‑change war.
March 01, 2026