Mid‑Decade Redistricting Shrinks Competitive U.S. House Map

NPR reports that an unprecedented wave of mid‑decade congressional redistricting—sparked in part by President Trump’s direct push to state legislatures—has driven the number of competitive U.S. House seats to some of the lowest levels on record heading into the 2026 midterms. Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman says only 18 of 435 races are true toss‑ups, meaning less than 5% of Americans will effectively decide control of the House in November, and even counting 'lean' races yields just 36 competitive seats. The Unite America Institute calculates that in 2024, just 7% of voters effectively elected 87% of House members, and now finds 32 states with no competitive congressional contests at all as Texas, California, North Carolina, Missouri and potentially Florida and Virginia adopt new maps tilted toward the party in power. Trump last year explicitly urged Texas lawmakers to redraw their map to create five more GOP‑friendly districts, while California Democrats pushed through a ballot measure to sideline the state’s independent commission and add five more Democratic‑leaning seats, with both parties using sophisticated mapping tools to lock in safer districts. Analysts warn the result is a House where more than 90% of seats are effectively decided in low‑turnout primaries dominated by ideological diehards, deepening polarization, reducing incentives for bipartisan compromise, and leaving most general‑election voters with little real say over who represents them.