February 20, 2026
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Commerce Dept: U.S. GDP Grew 2.2% in 2025 as Q4 Slowed to 1.4%

The Commerce Department reports that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, down sharply from 4.4% in the third quarter, while the economy expanded 2.2% over the full year compared with 2.4% in 2024. Consumer spending, which rose at a 2.4% annual pace in Q4, and heavy business investment in artificial‑intelligence data centers kept growth positive, but the gains are increasingly driven by higher‑income households as lower‑ and middle‑income families lean on savings and credit. TransUnion data show credit‑card balances reached $1.15 trillion at year‑end, $39 billion higher than a year earlier, even as job creation nearly stalled with just 181,000 net jobs added in 2025 versus more than 1.4 million in 2024. Economists warn that if weak hiring persists, unemployment is likely to rise and consumer spending could falter, challenging the narrative of a "strong" Trump‑era economy despite headline GDP growth. The report also notes that tariff‑driven swings in imports distorted quarter‑to‑quarter readings, and that new GOP tax changes allowing immediate expensing are helping fuel the AI investment boom that currently props up business spending.

U.S. Macroeconomy Tariffs and Trade Policy Artificial Intelligence Investment

📌 Key Facts

  • Q4 2025 GDP grew at a 1.4% annual rate, down from 4.4% in Q3, according to the Commerce Department.
  • For full‑year 2025, U.S. GDP grew 2.2%, slightly below 2024’s 2.4% pace.
  • Consumer spending rose at a 2.4% annual rate in Q4, while total credit‑card balances climbed to $1.15 trillion, $39 billion above a year earlier.
  • U.S. employers added only 181,000 jobs in all of 2025, compared with more than 1.4 million in 2024.
  • Business investment, especially in AI‑related data centers encouraged by a 2025 GOP tax bill’s immediate expensing provision, was a key contributor to growth.

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