IRS Says Early 2026 Refunds Up 11% as Trump Tax Law Drives Larger Gains for Higher‑Income Filers
As of Feb. 6, 2026 the IRS says the average refund is $2,290 — nearly 11% higher than the same point last year — with about 22.4 million returns filed versus 23.6 million a year earlier and officials expecting totals to rise after Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit payments are processed on Feb. 27. Early‑season averages are biased toward lower‑income filers and typically climb into mid‑February before falling by April, and analyses show the largest refund gains from President Trump’s tax law are concentrated among the top 10% of households.
📌 Key Facts
- As of February 6, 2026 the IRS reports the average refund is $2,290, nearly 11% higher than at the same point last year.
- The IRS has received nearly 22.4 million returns so far in 2026, down from 23.6 million by this time last year.
- The IRS says its February 27 update will likely show higher refund totals and averages once Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) refunds are processed.
- Early‑season refund averages are biased toward lower‑income filers and typically rise into mid‑February before drifting down by April, per Bipartisan Policy Center analysis.
- Analysts (Principal Asset Management) say the largest 2026 refund boosts from President Trump’s 'one big, beautiful' tax bill are expected to accrue to the top 10% of households.
📰 Source Timeline (2)
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February 16, 2026
5:55 PM
Average tax refund is nearly 11% higher so far this year, IRS data shows
New information:
- IRS reports that as of February 6, 2026 the average refund is $2,290, nearly 11% higher than at the same point last year.
- IRS has received nearly 22.4 million returns so far in 2026, down from 23.6 million by this time last year.
- IRS says it expects refund numbers to be higher when it posts its February 27 update, once Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit refunds are processed.
- The article explains that early‑season averages are biased toward lower‑income filers and typically rise into mid‑February before drifting down by April, based on Bipartisan Policy Center analysis.
- It reiterates that the largest 2026 refund boosts under Trump’s 'one big, beautiful' bill are expected for the top 10% of households, consistent with prior Principal Asset Management analysis.
February 10, 2026