Estonian Intel Says Russia Lost 1M Troops but Is Rapidly Rearming With Mass Artillery

Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, one of NATO’s closest watchers of Russia, has released a new assessment concluding that Moscow has suffered an estimated 1 million soldiers killed or severely wounded in its full‑scale war on Ukraine, hollowing out the professional core of its military and forcing reliance on mass mobilization of poorly trained recruits, convicts and foreign nationals. Despite those losses, the report says Russia’s defense industry has shifted to a long‑war footing, boosting artillery ammunition production to more than 17 times its 2021 level and churning out roughly 7 million shells in 2025 alone as it rebuilds stockpiles for future conflicts. Estonian analysts describe a Russian force rebuilt around quantity rather than quality—aging equipment, weak training and high attrition—but still dangerous for Ukraine, NATO’s eastern flank and European security. The assessment also notes that Russia is not expected to attack Estonia or other NATO members in the coming year, even as President Vladimir Putin publicly dismisses Western talk of exhaustion and claims he can begin cutting defense spending in 2026, and President Donald Trump has mocked Russia as a "paper tiger" for failing to subdue Ukraine in four years of war. For U.S. defense planners and lawmakers debating aid to Kyiv and the size of American stockpiles, the report underscores that Russia’s capacity to wage high‑intensity artillery warfare is being rebuilt faster than many expected, even as the combat effectiveness of its battered army remains in doubt.