Siena Poll Shows Hochul Leading Blakeman by 26 Points in 2026 New York Governor’s Race

A new Siena College Research Institute poll finds New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holding a 54%–28% lead over Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman among registered voters statewide, a margin essentially unchanged since December as the 2026 gubernatorial race starts to take shape. Conducted Jan. 26–28 among 802 registered voters (±4.3‑point margin of error), the survey shows Hochul dominating among Democrats 79%–8%, edging Blakeman 41%–34% with independents, and leading in every region of the state, while Blakeman has a 69%–15% advantage with Republicans but remains unknown to about three in five voters. Hochul’s job approval is now above 50%, and her favorability has risen seven points to 49%, which Siena pollster Steven Greenberg notes is the highest in her roughly 4½ years as governor and suggests many voters are at least tolerant of her record despite controversy over her proposal to bar local police from partnering with ICE on civil immigration enforcement. The poll also indicates Hochul is comfortably ahead of Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado in the Democratic primary, with at least 60% support among Democrats in every region, including 68% of self‑identified liberals and 65% of moderates, underscoring her strength inside the party. Blakeman, backed by President Donald Trump, is trying to frame Hochul as 'pro‑criminal' and seize on her ICE legislation as a public‑safety liability, but the data suggest that argument has yet to gain much traction beyond the GOP base.