Census: U.S. Population Growth Hits Post‑COVID Low as Net Immigration Falls Sharply Under Trump Policies
The Census pegs the U.S. population at 341.8 million as of July 2025, up 1.8 million in 12 months — the slowest post‑COVID growth — with a 1.3 million rise in the foreign‑born population (down from 2.7 million the year before) while births exceeded deaths by only about 500,000. Experts attribute the slowdown to a mix of late‑Biden asylum restrictions and Trump‑era deportations and border crackdowns, and census forecasters warn net immigration could fall by another 1 million this year; the Trump administration says deportations have eased housing pressures in immigrant‑heavy communities. State changes were uneven — Vermont declined 0.3% while South Carolina grew 1.5%, with Idaho, North Carolina and Texas among the fastest‑growing — and analysts note some of the prior surge reflected pent‑up demand from COVID border closures and shifting global policies that may be diverting migrants.
📌 Key Facts
- The Census pegs the total U.S. population at 341.8 million as of July 2025, an increase of 1.8 million over 12 months and the slowest post‑COVID / slowest growth since 2021.
- The foreign‑born population rose by about 1.3 million in that year—roughly a 52% smaller gain than the prior year's increase of about 2.7 million—while net immigration remains above pre‑pandemic levels but is projected to fall further.
- Census forecasters project that, if current trends continue, net immigration could decline by another ~1 million in the current year.
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) was only about +500,000—less than half the typical pre‑pandemic natural increase—so immigration accounted for the majority of U.S. population growth this year.
- Experts attribute the immigration slowdown to a mix of policy actions (including late‑Biden asylum restrictions and Trump‑era deportations and border crackdowns), while the Trump administration has asserted that deportations are easing rent pressures in immigrant‑heavy communities.
- Analysts note part of the earlier surge reflected 'pent‑up demand' after COVID border closures, and that policy shifts abroad may be making other countries relatively more attractive destinations for migrants than the U.S.
- State‑level shifts were uneven: Vermont saw the largest decline (−0.3%), while South Carolina was the fastest‑growing state (+1.5%); Idaho, North Carolina and Texas were also among the fastest‑growing states.
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- States with the largest relative changes are specified: Vermont saw the largest population decline at −0.3%, while South Carolina was the fastest‑growing at +1.5%, with Idaho, North Carolina and Texas also high on the list.
- The article distinguishes between the immigrant population increase of 1.3 million (down from 2.7 million) and total U.S. growth of 1.8 million, giving clearer detail on the relative role of immigration vs. natural increase.
- Experts explicitly credit both late‑Biden asylum‑restriction policies and Trump‑era deportations and border crackdowns for the immigration slowdown, noting that net immigration still remains above pre‑pandemic levels but is projected to fall further.
- Mark Hugo Lopez adds global context: some of the earlier surge reflected 'pent‑up demand' from COVID border closures, and policy shifts in other countries may be making them more attractive to migrants than the U.S.
- Census now pegs total U.S. population at 341.8 million as of July 2025, up 1.8 million in 12 months.
- The foreign-born population increased by 1.3 million in that period, a 52% smaller gain than the year before, reflecting both reduced legal entries and voluntary/forced departures of people here illegally.
- Births exceeded deaths by only about 500,000 in the same year—less than half the pre-pandemic natural increase—so immigration is the main driver of slowing growth.
- Census forecasters project that if current trends continue, net immigration could fall by another 1 million in the current year.
- NPR notes the Trump administration is already claiming widespread deportations are easing pressure on rents in immigrant-heavy communities, highlighting an explicit policy narrative tied to these numbers.