Council Study Finds 21% U.S. Murder Drop in 2025, Points to Possible 100‑Year Low
A Council on Criminal Justice study found murders in a sample of large U.S. cities fell 21% from 2024 to 2025 — the largest one‑year drop on record in that dataset — and reporting from Axios shows the U.S. murder rate is at its lowest level since 1900, raising the possibility of a 100‑year low. Homicides were 25% below 2019 levels with declines in 27 of 35 cities (including 59% in Richmond, 39% in Los Angeles and 10% in New York), carjackings and shoplifting plunged while drug offenses rose and sexual assault was flat, and experts and local officials attributed the improvements to a return toward pre‑2020 trends, COVID relief, focused neighborhood interventions and restored court operations while urging continued conflict‑resolution efforts.
📌 Key Facts
- The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) sample of large U.S. cities shows murders fell 21% from 2024 to 2025 — the single-largest one-year drop on record in that dataset.
- Homicide rates in the CCJ sample were 25% lower in 2025 than in 2019, with declines in 27 of 35 cities; notable drops include Richmond (59%), Los Angeles (39%) and New York City (10%).
- Other crime trends in the CCJ sample: carjackings declined 61% since 2023, shoplifting was down 10% since 2024, overall violent crime was at or below 2019 levels, while drug offenses rose and sexual assault remained flat.
- CCJ lead author Ernesto Lopez said the 2025 drop may reflect a return to a longer-term downward trend interrupted by the 2020 spike; experts pointed to stabilized routines, COVID relief, focused neighborhood interventions and restored court operations as likely contributors.
- On the ground in Atlanta, Police Chief Darren Schierbaum said homicides fell below 100 in 2025 for the first time since before COVID; CCJ data show a 14% local drop, and Schierbaum emphasized rising "escalating disputes" and the need for community conflict resolution.
📰 Source Timeline (2)
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- Confirms murders in the Council on Criminal Justice sample of large U.S. cities fell 21% from 2024 to 2025, the single-largest one-year drop on record in that dataset.
- Reports that homicide rates in the sample were 25% lower in 2025 than in 2019, with declines in 27 of 35 cities, including a 59% drop in Richmond, 39% in Los Angeles and 10% in New York City.
- Adds that carjackings in the sample have declined 61% since 2023, shoplifting is down 10% since 2024, and overall violent crime is at or below 2019 levels, while drug offenses rose and sexual assault was flat.
- Quotes lead author Ernesto Lopez saying the 2025 drop may reflect a return to a longer-term downward trend interrupted by the 2020 spike, and highlights expert views that stabilized routines, COVID relief, focused neighborhood interventions and restored court operations likely contributed.
- Includes on-the-ground comment from Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum noting homicides there fell below 100 in 2025 for the first time since before COVID, with CCJ data showing a 14% local drop and Schierbaum emphasizing "escalating disputes" and the need for community conflict resolution.