White House Cites Council Study’s 21% Big‑City Murder Drop to Claim Historic National Low and Credit Trump Crackdown
The White House cited a Council on Criminal Justice finding that homicides in a sample of large U.S. cities fell about 21% from 2024 to 2025 — the largest one‑year drop in that dataset — and called it part of the lowest national murder rate since 1900. The administration credited President Trump’s border and enforcement actions, pointing to a sharp rise in federal violent‑crime arrests, while researchers and local officials say the decline likely reflects multiple factors (restored court operations, focused local interventions and changing routines) and that trends were uneven across cities and crime types.
📌 Key Facts
- The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) sample of 35 large U.S. cities showed murders fell 21% from 2024 to 2025—the single-largest one-year drop on record in that dataset—equivalent to about 922 fewer homicides across the 35 cities.
- Homicides in the CCJ sample were roughly 25% lower in 2025 than in 2019, and several cities reached decades‑low levels (examples cited: Richmond down 59%, Los Angeles down 39%, New York City down 10%; ABC also noted Denver, Omaha and Washington, D.C. each fell 40%+).
- Reports varied on how widespread the declines were: one account said 27 of 35 cities saw homicide drops, another said 31 of 35—overall, the majority of sampled cities reported reductions in 2025.
- Other crime trends in the CCJ sample included a 61% decline in carjackings since 2023, vehicle thefts down about 27%, shoplifting down about 10% since 2024, while drug offenses rose slightly and sexual assaults were essentially flat.
- CCJ lead author Ernesto Lopez and other experts cautioned the decline likely reflects multiple factors—not a single cause—including a return toward a longer‑term downward trend interrupted by the 2020 spike, stabilized post‑pandemic routines, COVID relief, focused neighborhood interventions, restored court operations, and various public‑safety and social investments; commentators emphasized there is "never one reason" crime goes up or down.
- The White House (press secretary Karoline Leavitt) said the CCJ data show the 2025 murder rate in major U.S. cities at its lowest since at least 1900 and labeled it the largest single‑year drop, explicitly crediting President Trump’s policies (border security, increased federal arrests and deportations) and citing alleged large increases in FBI violent‑crime arrests and steep year‑to‑date declines in Washington, D.C.; those attributions were presented as the administration’s interpretation of the data.
- Local context: Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum said Atlanta homicides fell below 100 in 2025—the first time since before COVID—with CCJ showing a 14% local drop and urging more community conflict resolution to address "escalating disputes."
- Not all cities improved: Little Rock was reported as the only city in the CCJ sample with a double‑digit homicide increase (16%) from 2024.
📊 Analysis & Commentary (2)
Year One of Trump Two: Homicides Drop ~25%
"This commentary discusses and largely credits a Council on Criminal Justice finding of a large (~21–25%) one‑year drop in homicides across sampled U.S. cities in 2025, arguing the decline is real, politically important, plausibly linked to tougher enforcement/policy changes, and should be taken seriously despite methodological caveats."
C. Thi Nguyen on Why Measuring Everything Ruins Everything
"Nguyen critiques the politics of single‑number metrics — such as the 21% big‑city homicide drop the White House cites — arguing that measuring (and publicizing) narrow indicators can distort incentives, misattribute causes, and harm the substantive goals those metrics are supposed to represent."
📰 Source Timeline (4)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
February 05, 2026
10:40 PM
White House says murder rate plummeted to lowest level since 1900 under Trump administration
New information:
- White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters the Council on Criminal Justice data show the 2025 murder rate in major U.S. cities at its lowest level since at least 1900 and called it the largest single‑year drop in murders on record.
- Leavitt explicitly credited the homicide decline to President Trump’s policies, claiming that securing the border, ramping up federal arrests and 'aggressively deporting the worst of the worst illegal aliens' drove the drop.
- She asserted that the FBI increased violent‑crime arrests by 100% in 2025 compared with 2024 and made more than 67,000 arrests from Inauguration Day 2025 to Jan. 20, 2026—197% more than the same prior‑year period.
- The press secretary highlighted Washington, D.C., as a showcase, saying homicides are down 62% and motor‑vehicle theft down 53% year‑to‑date, and used those figures to attack 'soft on crime' Democratic officials.
January 22, 2026
11:38 AM
Homicide rate declines sharply in dozens of US cities, a new report shows
New information:
- Confirms the 21% homicide decline from 2024 to 2025 translates to about 922 fewer homicides across the 35 reporting cities.
- Specifies that homicide fell in 31 of 35 cities, with Denver, Omaha and Washington, D.C. each seeing homicide reductions of 40% or more.
- Adds detail that vehicle thefts dropped 27% and shoplifting 10% in the Council’s sample, while drug crimes rose slightly and sexual assaults were flat.
- Notes Little Rock, Arkansas, as the only city in the sample with a double‑digit homicide increase (16%) from 2024.
- Includes Adam Gelb’s quote calling the drop "a dramatic drop to an absolutely astonishing level" and stressing there is "never one reason" crime goes up or down.
- Underscores that some cities reached decades‑low homicide numbers and that the overall homicide rate is at its lowest in decades, reinforcing the broader trend.
- Reiterates that both GOP "tough‑on‑crime" talking points and Democratic mayors’ self‑credit claims are contradicted by similar drops in cities that did not see Guard deployments or federal immigration surges.
- Cites Jens Ludwig’s point that both increased law‑enforcement spending and investments like education can matter, and that many factors likely contributed.
10:00 AM
Murders plummeted more than 20% in U.S. in 2025, study shows
New information:
- Confirms murders in the Council on Criminal Justice sample of large U.S. cities fell 21% from 2024 to 2025, the single-largest one-year drop on record in that dataset.
- Reports that homicide rates in the sample were 25% lower in 2025 than in 2019, with declines in 27 of 35 cities, including a 59% drop in Richmond, 39% in Los Angeles and 10% in New York City.
- Adds that carjackings in the sample have declined 61% since 2023, shoplifting is down 10% since 2024, and overall violent crime is at or below 2019 levels, while drug offenses rose and sexual assault was flat.
- Quotes lead author Ernesto Lopez saying the 2025 drop may reflect a return to a longer-term downward trend interrupted by the 2020 spike, and highlights expert views that stabilized routines, COVID relief, focused neighborhood interventions and restored court operations likely contributed.
- Includes on-the-ground comment from Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum noting homicides there fell below 100 in 2025 for the first time since before COVID, with CCJ data showing a 14% local drop and Schierbaum emphasizing "escalating disputes" and the need for community conflict resolution.