Council Study Finds 21% U.S. City Murder Drop in 2025, With 922 Fewer Killings Across 35 Departments
A Council on Criminal Justice study of 35 large U.S. cities found homicides fell 21% from 2024 to 2025 — the single‑largest one‑year drop in the dataset — amounting to roughly 922 fewer killings and leaving the sample's homicide rate about 25% below 2019 levels. Declines occurred in most cities (notable drops included Richmond 59%, Los Angeles 39% and New York City 10%; Denver, Omaha and Washington, D.C. saw 40%+ reductions while Little Rock rose 16%), and the report also found big drops in carjackings (61% since 2023), vehicle thefts (27%) and shoplifting (10%) with drug offenses edging up and experts attributing the turnaround to multiple factors like restored routines, targeted interventions, resumed court operations and broader investments.
📌 Key Facts
- A Council on Criminal Justice sample of 35 large U.S. cities shows murders fell 21% from 2024 to 2025 — the single-largest one-year drop on record in that dataset — equal to about 922 fewer homicides across those cities.
- The decline was widespread: reports note homicide fell in a majority of the 35 cities (accounts cite declines in 27 to 31 cities), with some jurisdictions posting very large drops.
- Compared with 2019, homicides in the sample were about 25% lower in 2025, and several cities reached decades‑low homicide totals.
- Notable city-level changes include a 59% drop in Richmond, 39% in Los Angeles, 10% in New York City, and reductions of 40% or more in Denver, Omaha and Washington, D.C.; Little Rock was the only city with a double‑digit increase (16%).
- Other crime trends in the Council’s sample: carjackings down ~61% since 2023, vehicle thefts down ~27%, shoplifting down ~10% since 2024, overall violent crime at or below 2019 levels, while drug offenses rose slightly and sexual assaults were essentially flat.
- Researchers and experts caution there is no single cause: CCJ lead author Ernesto Lopez said the drop may reflect a return to a longer‑term downward trend after the 2020 spike, and analysts point to multiple contributors including stabilized routines after COVID, federal relief, focused neighborhood interventions, restored court operations, and varied investments such as policing and education.
- Observers stressed the change undercuts simple political explanations: similar declines occurred in cities without National Guard deployments or immigration surges, and experts (including Adam Gelb and Jens Ludwig) say multiple factors likely combined to produce the drop.
- Local perspective: Atlanta reported homicides below 100 in 2025 for the first time since before COVID (CCJ shows a 14% local decline); Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum highlighted escalating disputes as an ongoing issue and the need for community conflict‑resolution efforts.
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
Year One of Trump Two: Homicides Drop ~25%
"This commentary discusses and largely credits a Council on Criminal Justice finding of a large (~21–25%) one‑year drop in homicides across sampled U.S. cities in 2025, arguing the decline is real, politically important, plausibly linked to tougher enforcement/policy changes, and should be taken seriously despite methodological caveats."
📰 Source Timeline (3)
Follow how coverage of this story developed over time
January 22, 2026
11:38 AM
Homicide rate declines sharply in dozens of US cities, a new report shows
New information:
- Confirms the 21% homicide decline from 2024 to 2025 translates to about 922 fewer homicides across the 35 reporting cities.
- Specifies that homicide fell in 31 of 35 cities, with Denver, Omaha and Washington, D.C. each seeing homicide reductions of 40% or more.
- Adds detail that vehicle thefts dropped 27% and shoplifting 10% in the Council’s sample, while drug crimes rose slightly and sexual assaults were flat.
- Notes Little Rock, Arkansas, as the only city in the sample with a double‑digit homicide increase (16%) from 2024.
- Includes Adam Gelb’s quote calling the drop "a dramatic drop to an absolutely astonishing level" and stressing there is "never one reason" crime goes up or down.
- Underscores that some cities reached decades‑low homicide numbers and that the overall homicide rate is at its lowest in decades, reinforcing the broader trend.
- Reiterates that both GOP "tough‑on‑crime" talking points and Democratic mayors’ self‑credit claims are contradicted by similar drops in cities that did not see Guard deployments or federal immigration surges.
- Cites Jens Ludwig’s point that both increased law‑enforcement spending and investments like education can matter, and that many factors likely contributed.
10:00 AM
Murders plummeted more than 20% in U.S. in 2025, study shows
New information:
- Confirms murders in the Council on Criminal Justice sample of large U.S. cities fell 21% from 2024 to 2025, the single-largest one-year drop on record in that dataset.
- Reports that homicide rates in the sample were 25% lower in 2025 than in 2019, with declines in 27 of 35 cities, including a 59% drop in Richmond, 39% in Los Angeles and 10% in New York City.
- Adds that carjackings in the sample have declined 61% since 2023, shoplifting is down 10% since 2024, and overall violent crime is at or below 2019 levels, while drug offenses rose and sexual assault was flat.
- Quotes lead author Ernesto Lopez saying the 2025 drop may reflect a return to a longer-term downward trend interrupted by the 2020 spike, and highlights expert views that stabilized routines, COVID relief, focused neighborhood interventions and restored court operations likely contributed.
- Includes on-the-ground comment from Atlanta Police Chief Darren Schierbaum noting homicides there fell below 100 in 2025 for the first time since before COVID, with CCJ data showing a 14% local drop and Schierbaum emphasizing "escalating disputes" and the need for community conflict resolution.