China Meets Initial U.S. Soybean Target as Trump Tariff Threats Cloud Future Purchases

China has fulfilled its initial pledge to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans under an October 2025 trade agreement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week at Davos after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Updated USDA data through Jan. 8 show China had purchased more than 8 million tons by then, with daily reports since documenting multiple large new orders that push it over the agreed threshold, and Beijing has signaled it still intends to buy 25 million tons annually for the next three years. But agricultural economists warn that President Donald Trump’s rapidly shifting trade moves — including a threatened 25% tariff on any country buying from Iran, which could hit China, and a separate threat of 10% tariffs on several European allies over his Greenland push — may undercut the deal’s stability. U.S. soybean producers remain uneasy as China has structurally shifted most of its sourcing to cheaper Brazilian and Argentine beans, and as high fertilizer, seed and labor costs keep margins tight at home. To cushion the trade‑war fallout, the administration is preparing roughly $12 billion in farm aid, with planned payments of $30.88 per acre for soybeans, $44.36 for corn and $48.11 for sorghum based on USDA cost‑of‑production formulas, a package farmers say still doesn’t fully solve the profitability squeeze. The story underscores how U.S. producers are caught between a temporarily revived Chinese market and escalating tariff brinkmanship that could again choke off a critical export outlet.