China–Taiwan tensions rise as Lai vows to defend sovereignty after 'Justice Mission 2025' drills
China launched major "Justice Mission 2025" military exercises around Taiwan — which Beijing framed as a "stern warning" after the U.S. approved an over $11 billion arms package — and imposed sanctions on 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives. Taiwan President Lai Ching‑te vowed in his Jan. 1 New Year address to firmly safeguard sovereignty, strengthen defenses and build a comprehensive deterrent, prompting Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office to denounce him while Xi Jinping declared Taiwan’s eventual annexation "unstoppable." Taipei has approved a special $40 billion arms budget for 2026–2033 and plans to raise overall defense spending to 5% of GDP.
📌 Key Facts
- China launched major PLA military exercises in waters and airspace around Taiwan, described by Beijing as a “stern warning” and explicitly framed as a response to recent U.S. actions and regional comments.
- The Trump administration approved a mid-December U.S. arms package to Taiwan valued at over $11 billion—the largest so far—which includes missiles, drones, artillery systems and military software.
- Beijing imposed sanctions after the arms approval, targeting 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives.
- China’s top diplomat Wang Yi publicly condemned the U.S. arms sale at a Dec. 30 diplomatic event and also sharply criticized Japan, warning China must be vigilant against the “resurgence of Japanese militarism” following remarks by Japan’s new prime minister.
- Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te used his Jan. 1 New Year address to vow to “firmly safeguard national sovereignty,” strengthen defense, and build comprehensive deterrence and a “democratic defense mechanism” against China’s “expansionist ambitions.”
- Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office labeled Lai “a saboteur of peace, a troublemaker and a warmonger,” reiterated that “Taiwan is part of China,” and Xi Jinping said in his Dec. 31 New Year address that Taiwan’s eventual annexation is “unstoppable.”
- Taiwan approved a special $40 billion arms budget for 2026–2033 to build a “Taiwan Dome” air-defense system with high-level detection and interception, and has pledged to raise overall defense spending to about 5% of GDP.
- The combination of the U.S. arms sale and pressure on Taiwan, China’s military drills and sanctions, and diplomatic criticism of Japan has opened multiple diplomatic and security fronts, heightening China–Taiwan tensions.
📊 Relevant Data
In a February 2025 poll, 80% of DPP supporters favored Taiwan independence, compared to 25% of KMT supporters who favored independence and 37% who favored unification.
Special Report: Taiwanese Preferences on Political Future — Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation
In a February 2025 poll, 65% of Taiwanese aged 25-34 supported independence, compared to 52% of those aged 65 and above, with younger groups showing higher Taiwanese-only identity (90.8% for 25-34 vs. 72.1% for 65+).
Special Report: Taiwanese Preferences on Political Future — Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation
China has 2,035,000 active military personnel, while Taiwan has 215,000, highlighting a significant manpower disparity.
Comparison of China and Taiwan Military Strengths (2025) — Global Firepower
China possesses 3 aircraft carriers and 61 submarines, while Taiwan has 0 aircraft carriers and 4 submarines.
Comparison of China and Taiwan Military Strengths (2025) — Global Firepower
China's defense budget in 2025 is $266.85 billion, compared to Taiwan's $19.74 billion.
Comparison of China and Taiwan Military Strengths (2025) — Global Firepower
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
"An opinion piece praising Taiwan’s new, firmer leadership under Lai and arguing that robust defense, allied support (notably U.S. arms), and greater self‑reliance are the right response to Beijing’s recent "Justice Mission 2025" drills and coercion, while warning of escalation risks that demand careful diplomacy."
📰 Sources (4)
- Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te used his Jan. 1 New Year address to publicly vow to 'firmly safeguard national sovereignty,' strengthen defense and build a comprehensive deterrence and 'democratic defense mechanism' in response to China’s 'expansionist ambitions.'
- Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, via spokesperson Chen Binhua, responded by labeling Lai 'a saboteur of peace, a troublemaker and a warmonger' and reiterating that 'Taiwan is part of China.'
- The article reports that Xi Jinping in his own Dec. 31 New Year address called Taiwan’s eventual annexation 'unstoppable.'
- Taiwan last year approved a special $40 billion arms budget for 2026–2033 to build a 'Taiwan Dome' air-defense system with high-level detection and interception and has pledged to raise overall defense spending to 5% of GDP.
- The piece restates that the planned $11 billion U.S. arms sale — the largest so far to Taiwan — includes missiles, drones, artillery systems and military software.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi publicly condemned the more than $11 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan at a year-end diplomatic event in Beijing on Dec. 30, 2025, calling for China to 'resolutely oppose and strongly counter' the move.
- The article confirms that the PLA drills around Taiwan underway this week are explicitly framed by Beijing as a response both to the U.S. arms package and to recent remarks by new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi implying possible military involvement over Taiwan.
- Wang Yi sharply criticized Japan, saying its leaders 'openly challenge China's territorial sovereignty' and warning that China must be 'highly vigilant against the resurgence of Japanese militarism,' adding another diplomatic front to the fallout from the U.S. sale.
- The piece reiterates that President Donald Trump has been pressing Taiwan to increase defense spending, even suggesting it allocate up to 10% of GDP to defense and buy more U.S.-made equipment, underscoring U.S. policy pressure alongside the sale itself.
- China launched major military exercises in waters and airspace around Taiwan on Monday, described as a 'stern warning' against outside interference.
- The drills are explicitly linked to the Trump administration's mid-December approval of one of the largest U.S. arms packages to Taiwan, valued at over $11 billion.
- The article confirms that, following that arms approval, Beijing imposed sanctions on Friday targeting 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives.