Israel warns U.S. Iran missile drill may mask attack
Israeli officials have warned the Trump administration that an ongoing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile exercise could be a cover for a strike on Israel, prompting direct coordination between IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir and U.S. Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper. While U.S. intelligence currently sees no indication of an imminent attack, Israel says recent Iranian missile movements resemble wartime preparations, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to discuss Iran’s rebuilding of its ballistic missile arsenal and the possibility of another strike on Iran in 2026 with President Trump at a Dec. 29 meeting in Miami.
📌 Key Facts
- Israeli and U.S. sources say Israel has told Washington that an IRGC missile drill and recent missile movements could be preparations for a surprise strike, even though the chance of attack is assessed as below 50%.
- IDF chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir called CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper on Saturday to warn that the exercise could mask operational steps toward an attack and urged close defensive coordination; Cooper then met Zamir in Tel Aviv on Sunday.
- Israeli intelligence assesses Iran’s missile stockpile dropped from about 3,000 to 1,500 and launchers from 400 to 200 after a 12‑day war, sees signs of rebuilding, and expects Netanyahu to ask Trump on Dec. 29 about confronting Iran’s missile program and a possible 2026 strike.
📊 Relevant Data
During the June 2025 Iran-Israel war, Iran launched over 550 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 suicide drones at Israel, resulting in 31 impacts in populated areas, 28 killed, and over 3,000 wounded in Israel.
The Israel-Iran war by the numbers, after 12 days of fighting — The Times of Israel
Post the June 2025 war, Iran's ballistic missile stockpile was reduced from approximately 3,000 to between 1,000-1,500 missiles, and missile launchers from 400 to around 200-250.
Iranian Ballistic Missile Estimates | JINSA — Jewish Institute for National Security of America
As of December 2025, Iran has reconstituted its heavy ballistic missile stockpile to around 2,000 missiles, prioritizing rebuilding after the Israel-Iran War.
Iran Update, December 12, 2025 | ISW — Institute for the Study of War
Iran's motivations for tensions with Israel include rebuilding its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, which were targeted by Israel in June 2025 strikes aimed at dismantling existential threats.
Understanding the War between Israel and Iran: Q&A with Amichai Magen and Abbas Milani — Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
In the 2025 war, approximately 50 to 60 of the 500 missiles Iran fired at Israel resulted in impacts, indicating a penetration rate of about 10-12% through defenses.
Shallow Ramparts: Air and Missile Defenses in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War — Foreign Policy Research Institute