Fact-check: Inflation contradicts Trump's prices claim
CBS News fact-checks President Trump’s Tuesday claim in Mount Pocono, Pa., that “prices are coming down,” citing federal data showing September inflation at 3% year over year (up from a 2.3% low in April) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday remarks that tariffs have recently lifted goods inflation. The piece notes analysts estimate CPI near 3.3% for November, groceries up 2.7% YoY in September, and includes the White House’s assertion that inflation is cooling to a 2.5% annualized pace and should fade in 2026.
📌 Key Facts
- CPI ran 3% YoY in September (latest available due to the shutdown), up from a 2.3% low in April and back to January’s rate.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs have contributed to a pickup in goods inflation; the Fed projects inflation easing to ~2.4% next year.
- Analyst estimate pegs November CPI at ~3.3%; grocery prices were up 2.7% YoY in September.
📊 Relevant Data
Roughly 29% of lower-income households are living paycheck to paycheck in 2025, up slightly from 2024 and from 27.1% in 2023, as inflation has outpaced wage growth for middle- and lower-income households since January 2025.
Nearly a quarter of U.S. households live paycheck to ... — CBS News
Racial and ethnic disparities in median household income have been largely persistent across time, with inflation-adjusted median household income varying by race and ethnicity as of 2024 data.
New data explore U.S. economic conditions by race and ethnicity ... — Economic Policy Institute
Over the June-August 2025 period, tariffs explain roughly 0.5 percentage points of headline PCE annualized inflation and around 0.4 percentage points of core PCE inflation.
How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025 — St. Louis Fed
As of June 2025, annual wage growth has converged across wage tiers at 2.8% for low-wage, 3% for middle-wage, and 2.9% for high-wage workers.
July 2025 US Labor Market Update: Wage Growth Is Outpacing ... — Hiring Lab
Black households faced 8 percent higher inflation volatility on average than White households from 2004 to 2020.
Do Black Households Face Higher and More Volatile Inflation? — Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
"A Playbook commentary critiques Republican messaging on affordability—arguing Trump’s off‑message rhetoric and factual missteps (on inflation) are undermining the GOP’s ability to persuade swing voters and opening space for figures like JD Vance to present a more disciplined alternative."