Fact-check: Inflation contradicts Trump's prices claim
CBS News fact-checks President Trump’s Tuesday claim in Mount Pocono, Pa., that “prices are coming down,” citing federal data showing September inflation at 3% year over year (up from a 2.3% low in April) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Wednesday remarks that tariffs have recently lifted goods inflation. The piece notes analysts estimate CPI near 3.3% for November, groceries up 2.7% YoY in September, and includes the White House’s assertion that inflation is cooling to a 2.5% annualized pace and should fade in 2026.
📌 Key Facts
- CPI ran 3% YoY in September (latest available due to the shutdown), up from a 2.3% low in April and back to January’s rate.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs have contributed to a pickup in goods inflation; the Fed projects inflation easing to ~2.4% next year.
- Analyst estimate pegs November CPI at ~3.3%; grocery prices were up 2.7% YoY in September.
📊 Relevant Data
Roughly 29% of lower-income households are living paycheck to paycheck in 2025, up slightly from 2024 and from 27.1% in 2023, as inflation has outpaced wage growth for middle- and lower-income households since January 2025.
Nearly a quarter of U.S. households live paycheck to ... — CBS News
Racial and ethnic disparities in median household income have been largely persistent across time, with inflation-adjusted median household income varying by race and ethnicity as of 2024 data.
New data explore U.S. economic conditions by race and ethnicity ... — Economic Policy Institute
Over the June-August 2025 period, tariffs explain roughly 0.5 percentage points of headline PCE annualized inflation and around 0.4 percentage points of core PCE inflation.
How Tariffs Are Affecting Prices in 2025 — St. Louis Fed
As of June 2025, annual wage growth has converged across wage tiers at 2.8% for low-wage, 3% for middle-wage, and 2.9% for high-wage workers.
July 2025 US Labor Market Update: Wage Growth Is Outpacing ... — Hiring Lab
Black households faced 8 percent higher inflation volatility on average than White households from 2004 to 2020.
Do Black Households Face Higher and More Volatile Inflation? — Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond