Trump allows Nvidia H200 sales to China with 25% U.S. cut; Beijing signals limits, market reaction muted
President Trump announced he will allow Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China with the U.S. taking a 25% cut of sales, saying he informed Xi Jinping and that the "same approach" will apply to AMD and Intel as the Commerce Department finalizes details; the H200s remain a generation behind Blackwell chips, which stay restricted. Beijing has signaled it will tightly limit imports—requiring buyers to show domestic chips are insufficient—and the market reaction was muted (Nvidia shares slipped ~0.3% and analysts remained cautious), even as lawmakers raised security concerns and prosecutors have previously disrupted black‑market flows of banned Nvidia chips into China.
đź“Ś Key Facts
- President Trump announced the U.S. will take a 25% cut of Nvidia H200 sales to China and said he informed Xi Jinping, who gave a positive response.
- Trump indicated the 'same approach' would apply to AMD and Intel, with the Commerce Department finalizing implementation details.
- A Nvidia spokesperson called the decision a 'thoughtful balance'; coverage noted Nvidia’s market capitalization at roughly $4.5 trillion.
- Chinese regulators signaled they may limit access to H200s — reportedly requiring buyers to justify why domestic chips are insufficient — casting doubt on whether China will accept the exports.
- Market reaction was muted: Nvidia shares closed down about 0.3% after the announcement, and analysts (e.g., William Blair) said they would not raise long‑term estimates absent actual China orders; CEO Jensen Huang said he was unsure whether China would accept H200s.
- The H200 is significantly more capable than the prior H20 but remains a generation behind Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chips, which continue to be excluded from exports.
- Law‑enforcement and reporting underscore ongoing black‑market flows of restricted chips: U.S. prosecutors disrupted a China‑linked network trafficking more than $160 million in restricted Nvidia chips (including H200s), and the FT reported over $1 billion of banned Nvidia chips entered China during earlier restrictions.
- Analysts and outlets framed the move as part of a broader strategy to 'lower the high‑tech firewall' — accommodating China within defined limits while aiming to reinforce U.S. dominance in chip design.
- The decision provoked concern on Capitol Hill: Rep. Brian Mast said Commerce framed the rationale as a strategy to 'dominate' AI and expand U.S. market share, while Rep. Andrew Garbarino and Sen. John Fetterman warned the sales could be weaponized by China and questioned the policy logic.
đź“Š Relevant Data
Among top AI research institutions in the US, 38% of the talent comes from China, compared to 37% from the US itself, while Chinese Americans constitute about 1.5% of the US population.
Half of the World's AI Talents Are Chinese: Why Does China Still ... — 36Kr
Chinese-origin researchers made up 29% of the authors of papers at a major AI conference, surpassing the U.S. share of 20%.
Have Top Chinese AI Researchers Stayed in the United States? — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Asian professionals comprise 20% of the US high-tech workforce, while Asians make up approximately 6% of the US population.
Diversity in Tech Statistics 2025: Who's Still Left Out? — SQ Magazine
Black professionals comprise 7% of the US high-tech workforce, compared to 13% of the US population.
Diversity in Tech Statistics 2025: Who's Still Left Out? — SQ Magazine
In the 2022 NAEP Grade 8 mathematics assessment, Asian students scored an average of 306, compared to 285 for White students, 261 for Hispanic students, and 253 for Black students.
Elementary and Secondary STEM Education | NSF - National Science Foundation — National Science Foundation
đź“° Sources (5)
- Rep. Brian Mast says the White House’s rationale was personally conveyed to him by Commerce Undersecretary Jeffrey Kessler and summed up as a strategy to “dominate” AI and expand U.S. market share.
- Rep. Andrew Garbarino voices concern the sales could be weaponized by China, specifically citing quantum computing and encryption risks.
- Sen. John Fetterman publicly questions the decision and says he doesn’t understand the logic given China’s adversarial posture.
- Axios frames the H200 export decision as part of a broader strategy to 'lower the high‑tech firewall' while maintaining Blackwell chip controls.
- Positions the H200 move as aimed at reinforcing U.S. dominance in chip design while accommodating China within defined limits.
- Chinese regulators are poised to limit access to H200s, requiring buyers to justify why domestic chips are insufficient (FT report cited).
- Nvidia shares closed down 0.3% after the announcement; William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji says he won't raise long-term estimates absent actual China orders.
- CEO Jensen Huang has said he is unsure whether China will accept H200s.
- Axios notes U.S. prosecutors disrupted a China-linked network trafficking more than $160 million in restricted Nvidia chips, including H200s, underscoring ongoing black-market flows.
- FT previously reported over $1 billion of banned Nvidia chips entered China via the black market during export restrictions.
- H200s, while far more capable than the H20, are still a generation behind Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chips, which remain excluded.
- Trump says the U.S. will take a 25% cut of Nvidia H200 sales to China.
- Trump says he informed Xi Jinping of the decision and received a positive response.
- He indicated the 'same approach' will apply to AMD and Intel, with Commerce finalizing details.
- Nvidia spokesperson endorsed the decision as a 'thoughtful balance' and the article notes Nvidia’s ~$4.5T market cap.
- Context: Article recalls an August plan contemplating export licenses tied to a 15% U.S. revenue cut and a proposed 10% U.S. stake in Intel alongside grants.