IHME: Under‑5 deaths to rise in 2025
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects global under‑age‑5 mortality will increase in 2025 for the first time this century, to about 4.8 million deaths from 4.6 million in 2024, largely linked to a historic drop in health-focused foreign aid. NPR reports the model, detailed by IHME’s Dr. Steve Lim, attributes the reversal to a 26% cut in international health aid — with the U.S., U.K., France and Germany among donors reducing funding — while limited increases from some contributors do not offset the shortfall.
📌 Key Facts
- IHME projects under‑5 deaths rising to ~4.8 million in 2025 vs. 4.6 million in 2024 (~200,000 more).
- Global health aid fell from ~$49 billion (2024) to ~$36 billion (2025), a 26% decline.
- U.S., U.K., France, and Germany made significant cuts; Indonesia and South Africa increased some contributions but not enough to close the gap.
📊 Relevant Data
In 2023, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for half of all under-five deaths worldwide, with another quarter occurring in Southern Asia, despite sub-Saharan Africa comprising only about 14% of the global population.
Child Mortality - UNICEF DATA — UNICEF
The under-five mortality rate in sub-Saharan Africa was 70 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023, compared to the global average of 37 deaths per 1,000 live births.
Globally, the leading causes of under-five deaths in 2023 included neonatal conditions (47%), pneumonia (12%), diarrhea (8%), and malaria (5%).
The United States reduced its development assistance for health by 67% in 2025, a drop of more than $9 billion, driven by fiscal constraints and shifting priorities to defense and domestic issues.
The State of Global Health Funding: August 2025 — Think Global Health
European countries like the UK, France, and Germany cut foreign aid in 2025 due to fiscal pressures, increased defense spending, and ideological shifts.
Rethinking UK aid policy in an era of global funding cuts — Chatham House