UNSC-approved Gaza ceasefire phase two targets early-2026 ISF deployment; Trump-led board forming
The U.N. Security Council has approved President Trump’s 20‑point ceasefire plan but the second phase — including deployment of an international stabilization force, creation of a technocratic Gaza government, Hamas disarmament and eventual Israeli withdrawal — has not begun; partner countries have been floated for the ISF and “boots on the ground” are predicted in early 2026 while an international oversight “Board of Peace” led by Trump is expected to be appointed by year‑end. Progress to phase two is contingent on full implementation of phase one (including return of the last hostage’s remains), and faces major operational and political hurdles — disputes over ISF composition and command (Israel rejects Turkish participation), Hamas opposition to disarmament, and persistent shortfalls in humanitarian aid deliveries.
📌 Key Facts
- Phase two of the ceasefire has not begun; it envisions an international security force in Gaza, a technocratic Gaza government, Hamas disarmament and eventual Israeli withdrawal, and its start is being tied to completion of phase one — notably the return of the remains of Israeli Master Sgt. Ran Gvili (and a reciprocal return of Palestinian bodies).
- The U.N. Security Council approved President Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan; Trump is slated to head an international “Board of Peace” to supervise Gaza’s technocratic administration (Tony Blair has been floated as a possible member) and an international oversight body is expected to be appointed by year‑end.
- U.S. officials predict ‘boots on the ground’ for an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in early 2026; countries that have expressed willingness to participate include Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan, but no firm commitments, command structure or mission details have been finalized and Turkey’s participation is explicitly rejected by Israel.
- There are major open questions about ISF composition, command and initial mission; several countries and Turkey’s foreign minister publicly pressed for clarity on participants and command arrangements.
- Germany will support phase-two implementation by sending officers and diplomats to a U.S.-led civilian/military coordination center in southern Israel and by providing humanitarian aid; Israeli leaders (including Netanyahu) are meeting U.S. officials this month to discuss next steps.
- Humanitarian deliveries are falling short of ceasefire targets: analysis of COGAT figures shows average aid of about 459 trucks/day vs. the 600/day target; COGAT data imply ~25,700 total trucks vs. ~33,600 expected by Dec. 7, while the U.N. offloading database records only 6,545 trucks (~113/day); OCHA cites insecurity, customs, crossing denials/delays and limited internal routes as persistent impediments, and Israel has temporarily halted aid at times citing alleged Hamas violations.
- Gaza casualties and security incidents continue: Palestinian health officials report roughly 360–376 people killed since the Oct. 10 truce amid ongoing Israeli operations; Shifa Hospital reported two deaths in a strike northwest of Gaza City; the IDF said soldiers killed three militants who crossed the “yellow line,” and the IDF chief of staff has described that line as a “new border.”
- Hamas’s public stance is mixed: a senior Hamas official told AP the group is willing to discuss “freezing or storing or laying down” weapons, but Hamas leaders (including Husam Badran) have threatened not to move to phase two unless Israel fully implements phase one measures (opening key crossings, halting strikes and allowing more aid) and say the destruction in Gaza complicates locating the last hostage’s remains.
- Qatar’s prime minister warned the ceasefire is at a “critical moment,” stressing repeatedly that the current situation is a pause rather than a full ceasefire until Israeli withdrawal and restored stability in Gaza are secured.
📊 Relevant Data
As of August 2025, 1 in 5 children in the Gaza Strip are acutely malnourished.
Devastating rate of child malnutrition in the Gaza Strip in August surpasses July record — UNICEF
The population density in the Gaza Strip is 5,853 people per square kilometer.
Gaza Strip - Statistics & Facts — Statista
Before October 2023, around 500 aid trucks entered Gaza daily.
How much aid has entered Gaza? — Al Jazeera
Approximately 2,000 metric tons of food supplies are required daily to meet basic humanitarian needs in Gaza.
Gaza Humanitarian Response Update | 14 - 27 September 2025 — OCHA
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
Notes From Israel
"An on‑the‑ground critical take arguing that the U.N./U.S. plan to move to a 'phase two' Gaza ceasefire — with an international stabilization force and Trump‑led oversight board — is premature, faces steep political and operational hurdles (notably hostage returns, ISF composition and Hamas disarmament), and risks becoming symbolic unless core conditions are resolved."
📰 Sources (9)
Aid deliveries into Gaza fail to meet ceasefire terms, analysis shows
New information:
- AP analysis of COGAT figures finds Gaza aid averaged 459 trucks/day Oct. 12–Dec. 7 versus the ceasefire’s 600/day target.
- COGAT says ~18,000 food-aid trucks entered since the truce (70% of total aid since the truce), implying just over 25,700 trucks total vs. ~33,600 expected by Dec. 7.
- UN database shows only 6,545 trucks offloaded in the same period (~113/day), with discrepancies attributed to non‑UN bilateral shipments and bottlenecks.
- OCHA cites ‘persistent impediments’ — insecurity, customs clearance, crossing denials/delays, and limited internal routes — constraining deliveries.
- Israel temporarily halted aid at least once over alleged Hamas truce violations tied to returning hostage remains; Hamas cites difficulties locating remains amid destruction.
Trump’s ceasefire plan for the Israel-Hamas war faces pitfalls as it moves into new phase
New information:
- The U.N. Security Council has approved President Trump’s 20-point ceasefire plan to end Hamas’ rule in Gaza.
- Phase one is nearly complete with the remains of one hostage still in Gaza; Qatar’s prime minister says the ceasefire is at a ‘critical point.’
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to the White House this month to discuss next steps.
- A U.S. official says partner countries are meeting this month and predicts ‘boots on the ground’ for the International Stabilization Force in early 2026.
- Countries expressing willingness to participate in the ISF include Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, and Pakistan, though no firm commitments or command structure have been finalized.
- Hamas says it will oppose efforts by the force to disarm it, and Israel is hesitant to entrust security to an international body.
- Trump will head an international ‘Board of Peace’ to supervise Gaza’s technocratic administration; Tony Blair has been floated as a possible member, but Trump is the only official member named so far.
Hamas wants more pressure on Israel before ceasefire’s next phase
New information:
- Hamas official Husam Badran threatened not to proceed to phase two unless Israel fully implements phase one, including opening a key crossing, halting strikes, and allowing more aid.
- Israel said it would begin allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza through a crossing on the Jordan–Israel border.
- Updated figure from Palestinian health officials: at least 376 Palestinians have been killed since the Oct. 10 ceasefire took hold amid Israeli operations.
- Hamas says destruction from Israeli strikes has hampered efforts to locate the last hostage’s remains.
- UN and aid groups say current aid levels are far short of needs.
Netanyahu says Israel and Hamas will soon enter second phase of ceasefire
New information:
- Netanyahu said phase two could begin by the end of the month, contingent on Hamas returning the remains of Ran Gvili.
- AP quotes a senior Hamas official saying the group is ready to discuss “freezing or storing or laying down” its weapons as part of the ceasefire.
- IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir called the Gaza “Yellow Line” a “new border” and said Israel will remain on those defense lines.
- Germany will assist phase-two implementation by sending officers and diplomats to a U.S.-led civilian and military coordination center and by sending humanitarian aid.
- Completion of phase one would include Israel returning 15 Palestinian bodies in exchange for Gvili’s remains.
Netanyahu says he expects Gaza ceasefire second phase to begin soon
New information:
- Netanyahu said phase two of the Gaza ceasefire is expected to begin 'very shortly' and could start by the end of the month.
- Netanyahu announced he will meet President Trump later this month to discuss 'opportunities for peace.'
- AP-sourced detail: an international body overseeing the ceasefire, led by President Trump, is expected to be appointed by the end of the year.
- Netanyahu framed phase two as focused on the disarmament of Hamas and demilitarization of Gaza, with a third phase on 'deradicalization.'
- Status note: the remains of Israeli Master Sgt. Ran Gvili have not yet been returned.
Netanyahu says second phase of Gaza ceasefire soon to begin
New information:
- Netanyahu said Israel and Hamas are "very shortly" expected to move into phase two of the ceasefire, possibly by the end of the month, contingent on Hamas returning the remains of the last hostage, Ran Gvili.
- He outlined phase two elements: deploying an international force in Gaza and forming a temporary Palestinian government under an international board led by President Donald Trump.
- Germany will assist phase two by sending officers and diplomats to a U.S.-led civilian/military coordination center in southern Israel and by providing humanitarian aid.
- Netanyahu acknowledged travel concerns due to an ICC warrant and said there are no immediate plans to visit Germany; Merz reiterated support for Israel and a two-state solution while saying recognition of a Palestinian state should come at the end of a process.
Qatari prime minister says Gaza ceasefire is at a critical moment as first phase winds down
New information:
- Qatar’s prime minister says the ceasefire is at a “critical moment” as the first phase winds down and stresses it remains a pause, not a full ceasefire.
- He states one Israeli hostage’s remains still need to be handed over; Israel sent a delegation to Egypt last week to discuss returning the last hostage’s remains.
- The second phase has not begun; it envisions an international security force in Gaza, a technocratic government, Hamas disarmament, and eventual Israeli withdrawal.
- Turkey’s foreign minister publicly questions the composition/command of any Gaza security force and notes Israel rejects Turkish participation.
- AP cites Arab and Western officials that an international oversight body led by President Trump is expected to be appointed by year-end.
- Operational update: Shifa Hospital reports two Palestinians killed in a strike northwest of Gaza City; IDF says it isn’t aware of an airstrike there but says soldiers killed three militants who crossed the “yellow line” into the Israeli-controlled area.
Gaza ceasefire talks in "critical moment" as second phase in deal yet to begin
New information:
- Qatar’s prime minister says the ceasefire is at a “critical moment,” stressing it is only a pause and not yet a full ceasefire without Israeli withdrawal and restored stability in Gaza.
- The second phase of the U.S. plan — including deployment of an international security force, a technocratic Gaza government, Hamas disarmament, and eventual Israeli withdrawal — has not begun.
- Arab and Western officials told AP that an international body to oversee the ceasefire, led by President Trump, is expected to be appointed by year-end.
- Turkey’s foreign minister raised major open questions about the international security force’s participants, command structure, and initial mission, noting Israel rejects Turkish participation.
- Gaza health officials say 360+ Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the October truce took effect; Shifa Hospital reported two new deaths in an airstrike northwest of Gaza City.
- The IDF said it killed three militants who crossed a “yellow line” into an Israeli‑controlled area in northern Gaza and posed an immediate threat.