Supreme Court lets Texas use new House map for 2026, potentially adding up to 5 GOP seats
The Supreme Court issued an unsigned emergency stay allowing Texas to use a mid‑decade, GOP‑drawn congressional map for now — after Justice Alito had briefly reinstated it — saying delays could interfere with candidate qualifying ahead of March 2026 primaries. A three‑judge lower court had found likely racial discrimination (with a Trump‑appointed judge writing there was “substantial evidence”), but the high court’s decision, criticized in Justice Kagan’s dissent as effectively locking in the map, preserves a plan pushed by former President Trump that could net Republicans up to five additional House seats and has already prompted political fallout, including Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s decision not to seek reelection.
📌 Key Facts
- The Supreme Court issued an unsigned order allowing Texas to use its new congressional map for the 2026 cycle, acting on an emergency request as candidate qualifying has begun and Texas primaries are scheduled for March 2026.
- Justice Samuel Alito had earlier issued a temporary administrative stay reinstating the new map while the full Court reviewed Texas’s emergency request.
- The Court criticized the lower court for failing to apply a presumption of legislative good faith and for discounting challengers who offered no alternative map meeting Texas’s partisan goals; Justice Elena Kagan dissented, warning the stay will effectively lock in the contested map for the 2026 midterms because of looming election deadlines.
- A three-judge lower court majority (including Trump appointee Jeffrey V. Brown and Obama appointee David Guaderrama) found there was likely racial discrimination in the map—Brown wrote there was “substantial evidence” of racial gerrymandering and cited a DOJ letter and GOP public statements—while Judge Jerry Smith issued a blistering dissent calling the majority opinion baseless.
- The map, enacted last summer at President Trump’s urging, was engineered to give Republicans up to five additional House seats in Texas; the redraw splits Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s district, and Doggett (79) announced he will not seek reelection, warning Republicans may have overextended and that shifting Latino voting patterns could undercut GOP gains.
- Reports frame Texas as the opening front of a broader, Trump-driven mid‑decade redistricting push: analysts say Republicans could net roughly 12–14 House seats from ongoing efforts while Democrats have potential countermeasures that might yield about nine seats.
- Related developments and legal fights around redistricting: the Trump administration is suing to block California’s new maps; the Supreme Court is separately considering a Louisiana Section 2 Voting Rights Act case that could further limit race-based districts; and state-level moves include an Indiana map that could help Republicans win two seats, a Missouri petition drive that could block a map via public vote, and a California Democratic-approved map via special election that could flip five GOP-held seats.
📊 Relevant Data
Latino voters in Texas have historically turned out at far lower rates than White and Black voters.
Texas GOP may be banking on low Hispanic turnout in new map — The Texas Tribune
Under the previous congressional map, Hispanic Texans made up a majority of eligible voters in 7 districts; under the new 2025 map, there are 8 such districts.
Texas GOP may be banking on low Hispanic turnout in new map — The Texas Tribune
In the new Texas 9th Congressional District, only 37% of those who cast a ballot in 2024 had Spanish surnames, despite Hispanics comprising a majority of the population.
Texas GOP may be banking on low Hispanic turnout in new map — The Texas Tribune
The Republican vote share among Hispanics in Texas increased from 29% in 2018 to 43% in 2024.
Republicans bet big on Latino voters in redistricted Texas — POLITICO
In the new Texas congressional map (PLANC2308), there are 10 districts where the Hispanic population exceeds 50%, including District 28 with 90.8% Hispanic population.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS - PLANC2308 District Population Analysis with County Subtotals — Texas Legislative Council
📰 Sources (6)
- Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D‑Texas), 79, announced he will not seek reelection after the Supreme Court upheld Texas’s GOP‑drawn map that splits his district.
- Doggett argues the GOP may have overextended in redistricting and warns Latino voting patterns could undercut Republican gains.
- Political scientist Matthew Green notes Texas outcomes are uncertain as Latino voters increasingly swing, affecting 2026 and beyond.
- NPR frames national redistricting impacts: GOP could gain 12–14 seats from ongoing efforts while Democrats could counter with roughly 9, pending court and legislative outcomes.
- Indiana update: the state House passed a new congressional map on Friday that could help Republicans win two seats; measure heads to a divided Senate.
- Missouri development: petitioners face a signature deadline for a measure that could block the new map until a public vote.
- California counter: Democrats approved a map via special election that could flip five GOP-held seats.
- Supreme Court faulted the lower court for not applying the presumption of legislative good faith and for ignoring a strong inference against challengers who offered no alternative map meeting Texas’s partisan goals.
- Justice Elena Kagan’s dissent warned the stay will effectively lock in the contested map for the 2026 midterms due to looming state election deadlines, calling the majority’s evaluation anything but ‘preliminary.’
- The article situates the ruling within a broader, Trump-driven mid‑decade redistricting push, describing Texas as the opening front of a national effort.
- The Court acted on Texas's emergency request because candidate qualifying has begun; Texas primaries are in March 2026.
- Justice Samuel Alito had previously issued a temporary administrative stay before the full Court ruled.
- Lower-court judges identified: Jeffrey V. Brown (Trump appointee) and David Guaderrama (Obama appointee) found likely racial discrimination; Brown wrote there was 'substantial evidence' of racial gerrymandering.
- Judge Jerry Smith issued a blistering dissent, accusing Brown of 'pernicious judicial misbehavior' and calling the opinion worthy of a 'Nobel Prize for Fiction.'
- Article reiterates the map was enacted last summer at President Trump’s urging and engineered to give Republicans five additional seats.
- Context added: The Trump administration is suing to block California’s new maps while supporting Texas’s, and the Supreme Court is separately considering a Louisiana Section 2 Voting Rights Act case that could further limit race-based districts.
- The Supreme Court’s order was unsigned.
- The three-judge panel’s majority opinion was authored by a Trump-appointed judge and cited a DOJ letter and public statements by key GOP lawmakers as evidence of racial demographic manipulation.
- Before the Supreme Court intervention, the panel had ordered Texas to continue using its 2021 congressional map.
- The lower court held a nine-day hearing in October before issuing its ruling.
- Justice Samuel Alito previously allowed the new map to be temporarily reinstated in November while the Court reviewed Texas’s emergency request.