ADP: U.S. private payrolls fall 32,000
ADP reported U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, with its three‑month average at −4,700 jobs — a sign of flatlining conditions concentrated at the smallest firms. Broader labor measures show modest cooling (Chicago Fed real‑time unemployment 4.44%, four‑week initial claims ≈215,000, and Bank of America data showing payroll growth slowed to +0.2% year‑over‑year), and BofA economists attribute the weakness more to supply constraints than to a large wave of layoffs.
📌 Key Facts
- ADP reported U.S. private payrolls fell 32,000 in November; ADP’s three‑month average change is −4,700 jobs, signaling flatlining conditions concentrated at the smallest firms.
- Chicago Fed real‑time unemployment estimate held at 4.44% in the latest reading (down from 4.46% in October).
- Weekly initial jobless claims 4‑week moving average is about 215,000, lower than in spring/summer despite announced layoffs.
- Bank of America Institute data show payroll growth slowed to +0.2% year‑over‑year in November (from +0.5% in the prior two months), with unemployment‑benefit recipient trends remaining steady.
- BofA economist David Tinsley told Axios there is no 'great wave' of job losses and suggested supply constraints, including restrictive immigration policy, are a significant factor.
📊 Relevant Data
Immigration has accounted for almost half of U.S. labor force growth since 1995.
How Tighter Curbs on Immigration Impact the U.S. Economy — Econofact
Declining net immigration accounts for 40 to 60 percent of recent drop in U.S. job growth.
Immigration can't explain declining employment growth — Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
In 2024, the foreign born accounted for 19.2 percent of the U.S. civilian labor force.
Labor Force Characteristics of Foreign-born Workers Summary — Bureau of Labor Statistics
In September 2025, the unemployment rate was 3.8% for Whites, 7.5% for Blacks, and 5.5% for Hispanics.
The Employment Situation - September 2025 — Bureau of Labor Statistics
In 2022, the U.S. population was approximately 59% non-Hispanic White, 13% Black, 19% Hispanic, and 6% Asian.
US population by year, race, age, ethnicity, & more — USAFacts
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
"The piece is a long-form, contrarian deep dive arguing that recent negative headlines about the labor market (exemplified by the ADP payrolls drop) are better understood as a 'vibecession' — a mood- and narrative-driven dip — and that we should interpret mixed indicators cautiously rather than treat a single headline as evidence of a structural recession."
📰 Sources (2)
- Chicago Fed real-time unemployment estimate held at 4.44% in the latest reading (down from 4.46% in October).
- Weekly initial jobless claims 4-week moving average is about 215,000, lower than in spring/summer despite announced layoffs.
- Bank of America Institute data show payroll growth slowed to +0.2% year over year in November (from +0.5% in the prior two months), with steady trends in unemployment benefit recipients.
- ADP’s three-month average change is −4,700 jobs, highlighting flatlining conditions concentrated at the smallest firms.
- BofA economist David Tinsley told Axios there is no 'great wave' of job losses and suggested supply constraints (including restrictive immigration policy) are a significant factor.