Realtor.com: 2026 home prices to dip
Realtor.com’s new 2026 outlook projects home prices will fall in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, led by declines in several Florida markets, while mortgage rates ease to an average 6.3% and existing-home sales edge up to 4.13 million. The forecast, described by senior economist Jake Krimmel as the most balanced market since the pandemic, sees modest gains elsewhere (median +4% across the other 78 large metros) as inventory improves and demand normalizes from COVID-era peaks.
📌 Key Facts
- Prices projected to decline in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metros in 2026
- Largest drops forecast in Cape Coral–Fort Lauderdale (−10.2%) and North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton (−8.9%)
- Mortgage rates expected to average 6.3% in 2026 (from 6.6% in 2025)
- Existing-home sales projected at 4.13 million in 2026 (up <2% from 4.07 million in 2025)
- Seven of Florida’s eight largest cities expected to see price declines; Miami is the exception
📊 Relevant Data
The average annual premium for homeowners insurance in Florida is $5,838 for $300,000 in dwelling coverage in 2025, which is significantly higher than the national average.
Home Insurance Rates by State for 2025 | Bankrate — Bankrate
A 10% increase in the cost of homeowners insurance reduces housing prices by 4.6% according to researchers at Florida State University.
Home insurance is getting more expensive across the U.S. - NPR — NPR
In 2025, more people are leaving Florida than moving into the state, indicating net out-migration.
Florida moving stats 2025: More people leaving than entering, report ... — Jacksonville.com
Florida's housing inventory increased by 24.5% from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025, reaching 127,109 units.
Florida Housing Market Update: 2025 and Beyond - HouseCanary — HouseCanary
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
"The piece critiques optimistic talk of a single nationwide 'great housing reset,' arguing that Realtor.com’s modest 2026 price dip forecasts (and similar headlines) mask regional heterogeneity and that meaningful affordability gains require supply‑side reforms rather than waiting for a market correction."