Grocers discount turkeys despite disease-hit supply; sides cost more

📌 Key Facts

• Different measures show Thanksgiving meal costs are modestly lower year over year but still above pre‑pandemic levels: the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) estimates an average Thanksgiving meal at $55.18 ($5.52 per person), down about 5% YoY but roughly 13% above pre‑pandemic; regional AFBF averages are South $50.01, Midwest $54.38, Northeast $60.82 and West $61.75. Wells Fargo estimates feeding 10 people costs roughly $80–$95 and finds overall meal costs down roughly 3%–6% (store‑brand scenarios about 2%–3% lower).
• There is a major supply shock for turkeys at the wholesale level: USDA projects wholesale turkey prices will rise about 44% this year amid a 40‑year low turkey flock and more than 2 million birds lost to avian flu in the past three months; avian metapneumovirus has also reduced egg laying, tightening supply further.
• Wholesale/frozen turkey prices show large year‑over‑year increases in some measures (Leap Market Analytics reported frozen 8–16 lb hens averaged $1.77/lb in the second week of November, up about 81% YoY), even as many retailers are heavily discounting retail turkeys to drive traffic.
• Retail discounts and promotions are widespread: Datasembly shows retail prices for a 10‑lb turkey down about 2% YoY even as its 11‑item Thanksgiving basket cost $58.81 (up 4.1% YoY); examples include doorbusters such as Giant advertising frozen turkeys for 27¢/lb with qualifying purchases and retailer promotions like Aldi’s $40 meal for 10 and Kroger’s under‑$50 meal offering.
• While turkeys are being promoted, many side and pantry items are pricier: Datasembly’s overall basket is up 4.1% YoY, the BLS grocery CPI ran about +2.7% YoY through September, canned‑goods prices have been pushed up in part by tariffs on imported steel, and sweet potatoes may be costlier after hurricane damage in North Carolina.
• At the same time, some sides are cheaper: Wells Fargo notes items like dinner rolls are down (about 22% to roughly $3.56 per dozen) and stuffing, gravy and cranberries are down roughly 3%–4% in some measures, illustrating mixed price changes across different Thanksgiving items.
• Factors behind the pricing disconnect: lower feed costs from a 'mega surplus' of record U.S. corn and soybean harvests have helped push some meat prices down and enabled retailer discounts, while supply disruptions (disease, reduced flocks) and input cost pressures (steel tariffs, weather damage) are driving up other wholesale and retail prices; comparisons across retailers can be misleading when assortments differ (e.g., AP noted Walmart’s '25% cheaper' claim reflected a different, smaller assortment).

📰 Sources (5)