Venezuela drills as USS Ford arrives; UK and Colombia curb intel sharing over U.S. boat strikes
Venezuela launched a nationwide military exercise mobilizing roughly 200,000 troops, air and naval assets as the U.S. carrier USS Gerald R. Ford strike group arrived in the Caribbean amid a stepped‑up U.S. campaign of maritime missile strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats that U.S. officials defend as counter‑drug operations. The strikes — reported to include dozens of attacks and scores killed — have provoked regional and allied pushback, with Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro halting intelligence sharing with the U.S. and the U.K. reportedly suspending some sharing, while France, Mexico and others have criticized the operations even as President Trump says he might talk with Nicolás Maduro but keeps military options on the table.
📌 Key Facts
- The U.S. carrier strike group USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in the Caribbean as U.S. maritime missile strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats — conducted under Operation Southern Spear — continued.
- Operation Southern Spear has carried out roughly 21 maritime missile strikes, with at least 83 people reported killed and U.S. officials and surrogates describing the campaign as more than 20 strikes targeting a designated terrorist organization (often linked to the ‘Cartel de los Soles’).
- Venezuela launched a nationwide military exercise, 'Plan Independencia 200,' mobilizing about 200,000 troops and land, air and sea assets; Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino accused the U.S. of 'executing' suspects at sea and vowed to defend the nation if attacked.
- Diplomatic and intelligence frictions have grown: Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro ordered a halt to Colombian intelligence sharing with the U.S. over the strikes and publicly condemned the strikes (calling some victims poor fishermen), the U.K. has suspended some intelligence sharing, France condemned the strikes as breaching international law, Mexico summoned the U.S. ambassador, and Canada and the Netherlands said they are not participating.
- The White House frames the campaign officially as drug interdiction while also signaling pressure on the Venezuelan regime; President Trump said he might talk with Nicolás Maduro but did not rule out U.S. military action, and later publicly warned Colombia’s Gustavo Petro that he 'will be next' if he does not 'wise up.' Maduro said he is open to dialogue.
- Regional and operational shifts: the Dominican Republic granted the U.S. access to restricted facilities (including San Isidro Air Base and Las Américas Airport) for refueling and patrol support (KC-135, C-130), Gen. Dan Caine visited Puerto Rico with up to 10,000 U.S. personnel, and U.S. fighter sorties have flown closer to Venezuelan airspace (officials call them routine and in international airspace).
- U.S. agencies report differing operational impacts: the Coast Guard says it has seen 'no noticeable difference' in cocaine flow or routes, while the DEA says the strikes have raised cocaine prices 30%–45% per kilogram; the Coast Guard also reported a record single-cutter offload (USCG Cutter Stone nearly 50,000 pounds of cocaine, valued at over $360 million).
- Political fallout at home: congressional leaders (including Sen. Chuck Schumer) warn the White House is pushing the U.S. closer to an unauthorized foreign war and call for bipartisan reassertion of Congress’s war powers; public polling (CBS/YouGov) shows most Americans oppose potential U.S. military action in Venezuela, while just over half approve the ongoing maritime strikes but want evidence of drugs aboard targeted vessels.
📊 Relevant Data
In 2023, cultivation of coca bush in Colombia increased by 10 percent to 253,000 hectares, while potential cocaine production reached 2,664 metric tons, a 53 percent increase from the previous year.
Venezuela has become a key transit hub for cocaine trafficking, with routes originating from Colombia and destined for markets in the United States, Europe, and Africa.
Criminality in Venezuela - The Organized Crime Index — OCIndex
Transit migration from Venezuela increased property crime rates in crossed municipalities in Colombia, but violent crimes remained unaffected.
Transit Migration and Crime: Evidence from Colombia — ifo Institut
As of January 2024, Colombia hosts over 2.8 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees, representing a significant demographic shift with Venezuelan migrants being on average younger than the Colombian population.
Colombia case study of migration from Venezuela — The World Bank
By 2022, approximately 19% of Colombia's coca crops were concentrated in ethnic territories, with over 43% located in the Pacific region where Afro-Colombian communities reside; Afro-Colombians make up about 10% of Colombia's population.
Public Opinion on Forced Eradication: The Role of Collective Land Rights in Colombia — SSRN
📊 Analysis & Commentary (1)
Venezuela Aims to Gobble Up Honduras
"The WSJ opinion warns that Venezuela, with Cuban backing, is actively seeking to subvert and absorb neighboring countries—Nicaragua already lost and Honduras vulnerable—using political infiltration and exploitation of drug-trafficking infrastructure, a threat the author says deserves more attention even as U.S. naval forces operate in the Caribbean."
📰 Sources (16)
Trump warns Colombian President Gustavo Petro he will ‘be next’ amid drug trafficking rift
New information:
- President Trump issued a direct warning that Colombian President Gustavo Petro "will be next" if he "doesn't wise up," calling Petro "hostile" to the U.S.
- Trump characterized Colombia as a "major" drug producer and said he has not spoken with Petro.
- Article reiterates Petro’s response to U.S. strikes, including his halt to intelligence sharing and criticism that some of those killed were poor fishermen.
US deploys fighter jets to Gulf of Venezuela in closest known approach yet, amid rising tension
New information:
- New U.S. fighter-jet sortie over the Gulf of Venezuela brought aircraft closer to Venezuelan airspace than prior bomber flights.
- U.S. official characterized the flight as routine training and a demonstration of reach, remaining in international airspace.
Hegseth hints major defense spending increase, reveals new details on Trump’s anti-narcoterrorism operations
New information:
- Hegseth confirms he initially centralized authority for the first strike before delegating future decisions to Adm. Bradley.
- He characterizes the campaign as 'more than 20' strikes targeting a designated terrorist organization across the Caribbean.
- Describes the intelligence build‑up period and asset reorientation preceding the Sept. 2 strike.
Schumer accuses Trump of pushing US toward ‘foreign war’ with Venezuela
New information:
- Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned Trump is pushing the U.S. 'closer and closer to another costly foreign war' with Venezuela and emphasized Congress has not authorized force.
- Schumer called for bipartisan pushback to reassert Congress’s constitutional power to declare war.
- Article reiterates Trump’s recent 'airspace closed' post and Thanksgiving remark that the U.S. will 'very soon' begin stopping suspected Venezuelan traffickers 'by land,' and notes Pete Hegseth’s public defense of the lethal maritime strikes.
Dominican Republic grants U.S. access to restricted areas for its fight against drug trafficking
New information:
- Contrasting earlier allied friction, the Dominican Republic publicly steps up cooperation by granting U.S. access to restricted areas for refueling and patrol support.
- Details specific host facilities (San Isidro Air Base, Las Américas International Airport) and capabilities (KC-135 aerial refueling, C-130 support), indicating expanded operational basing for the campaign.
Scoop: Trump ready to talk with Maduro over Venezuela drug strikes
New information:
- White House officials emphasize continued focus on boat strikes and signal no imminent land operation or targeted capture/kill of Maduro.
- New figures: 21 maritime missile strikes with at least 83 killed to date under Operation Southern Spear.
- Gen. Dan Caine’s role highlighted and his Monday visit to Puerto Rico with up to 10,000 U.S. personnel noted.
- Administration framing: Southern Spear is officially drug interdiction but also exerts regime‑change pressure.
CBS News poll finds most would oppose U.S. military action in Venezuela
New information:
- New CBS/YouGov polling shows most Americans oppose potential U.S. military action in Venezuela and doubt it would reduce drug inflows.
- Just over half approve of current U.S. maritime strikes on suspected drug boats, but demand evidence that drugs are present.
- Polling indicates only limited public awareness of the U.S. buildup, with about one in five having heard a lot about it.
Coast Guard admiral, DEA administrator defend strikes on alleged drug boats
New information:
- USCG Adm. Nathan Moore says Coast Guard has seen 'no noticeable difference' in cocaine flow, routes, pace, or purity despite U.S. strikes.
- DEA Administrator Terry Cole counters that strikes are raising cocaine prices 30%–45% per kilogram, including at first stops (Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras).
- USCG Cutter Stone offloaded nearly 50,000 pounds of cocaine at Port Everglades, a record haul for a single cutter deployment, valued at over $360 million.
- Officials cite tighter intel integration and autonomous surveillance tools as factors in recent seizure surge.
- Cole dismisses concerns that strikes have weakened intelligence sharing with allies.
Boat strikes off Venezuela mark shift in 54-year US war on drugs
New information:
- The United Kingdom has suspended some intelligence-sharing with the U.S. in response to U.S. strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats near Venezuela.
- Colombia’s decertification as a U.S. drug-control partner was finalized last month, with an estimated loss of over $100 million per year in anti-trafficking and security funds (per Michael Weintraub, Universidad de los Andes).
- Expert assessment (Renata Keller) that potential U.S. military action inside Venezuela would mark a decisive break from the cooperative model of the drug war and likely provoke regional backlash.
Trump leaves military action against Venezuela on the table but floats possible talks
New information:
- Trump said he 'probably would talk to' Maduro but is not ruling out U.S. military action against Venezuela.
- Maduro responded hours later that he is open to dialogue with the Trump administration.
- Article underscores the U.S. carrier USS Gerald R. Ford’s presence and ongoing maritime strikes as the backdrop for Trump's remarks.
Trump floats possible talks with Venezuela but leaves military action on the table
New information:
- Trump said on Nov. 17 he "doesn’t rule out" military action against Venezuela and "probably would talk to" Nicolás Maduro.
- The White House posture is framed alongside the recent or impending designation of the Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization.
- PBS/AP reiterates the USS Gerald R. Ford CSG arrived in the Caribbean over the weekend as U.S. strikes on suspected drug boats continue.
Trump Says U.S. May Hold Talks With Venezuela’s Maduro
New information:
- President Trump said the U.S. may hold talks with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, adding “They would like to talk.”
- The comment came Sunday evening as questions mount in Congress about U.S. maritime strikes on suspected drug boats.
U.S. Boat Strikes Are Straining the Counterdrug Alliance
New information:
- France condemned the U.S. boat strikes as breaching international law.
- Mexico escalated concerns by summoning the U.S. ambassador.
- Canada and the Netherlands clarified they are not participating in the strikes.
Colombia's president calls Trump a 'barbarian' in rift over drug vessel strikes: report
New information:
- Gustavo Petro called President Trump a “barbarian” in an NBC News interview published Thursday.
- Petro said Colombia would not pass intelligence because it would be “collaborating with a crime against humanity.”
- A White House official told Fox News Digital that Trump views Petro as “an illegal drug leader” and defended the strikes under the President’s commander‑in‑chief and foreign‑relations authority.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied reports the U.K. curtailed intelligence sharing over the maritime strikes and said the counter‑drug operation continues.
- Rubio added the EU does not determine international law for U.S. national security decisions and that operations could stop if drug boats cease.
Venezuela launches huge military exercise as U.S. Navy draws near
New information:
- Venezuela launched a nationwide exercise involving roughly 200,000 troops and land, air and sea assets (referred to as 'Plan Independencia 200').
- Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino accused the U.S. of 'executing' suspects at sea and vowed Venezuelans would defend the nation 'to the death' if attacked.
- Colombian President Gustavo Petro ordered a halt to Colombia’s intelligence sharing with the U.S. so long as the maritime missile strikes continue.