The National Retail Federation's 2025 forecast estimates U.S. holiday retail sales (November–December 2025) will total $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, a 3.7%–4.2% increase over 2024's $976 billion in holiday sales.
November 06, 2025
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NRF 2025 holiday sales forecast and year-over-year comparison
The National Retail Federation's holiday sales calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.
November 06, 2025
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Methodological note on NRF holiday sales measure
The National Retail Federation reports that holiday spending accounts for about 19% of annual sales for the retail industry.
November 06, 2025
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Relative importance of the holiday season to annual retail sales
The National Retail Federation reported that average holiday spending growth was 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, holiday season sales rose 8.9% in 2020, and rose 12.5% in 2021.
November 06, 2025
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Historical holiday sales growth rates cited by NRF