Despite joint security cooperation among Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks by armed groups in the region have increased in intensity.
November 05, 2025
medium
temporal
Observed escalation of armed-group activity despite trilateral security efforts.
Multi-phase ceasefire agreements can condition progress to later phases on the disarmament of armed groups, the formation of a new civil administration, and the establishment and deployment of an international security force before reconstruction and easing of restrictions proceed.
October 29, 2025
high
structural
Describes typical structural requirements and sequencing in multi-phase ceasefire and post-conflict transition frameworks.
Some negotiated agreements include a phase that schedules the disarmament of an armed group to occur after the return of hostages.
October 14, 2025
high
general
Describes a common sequencing in multi-stage ceasefire or prisoner-exchange agreements.
Holding hostages can become a strategic liability for an armed group because it can provide opponents with political or moral justification to continue or escalate military action against the group.
high
general
Explains a general strategic consequence of hostage-taking in armed conflicts.
Domestic constraints such as depleted funding, inability to sustain prolonged armed operations, and falling public support can weaken an armed group's bargaining power in negotiations.
high
general
Lists common internal factors that reduce a non-state armed group's leverage.
The ICRC has historically overseen exchanges of remains and has served as one of the few channels of communication between adversaries during active conflicts, including exchanges in conflicts involving Israel and armed groups in Gaza and Lebanon.
high
historical
Describes a recurring role the ICRC has played in past conflicts as a facilitator of exchanges and communications.